u/Pet10003

Hi this is Pet1003, your friendly guy who you probably met at the local bank AGM

Generally speaking, lump sum into index will generally reap higher returns than DCA over a long period of time because index normally goes up over a long period of time

It therefore make sense to go in lump sum when there is a dip. But how do know whether it is a real dip to go into?

Usually I go in when price drops below <50 AND <200MA AND with a red bottom MACD. This is when lump sum can outdo DCA by a large magnitude.

This is really a game of patience, as opportunity like this comes once in a few months. We might be getting another one soon if Strait of Hormuz does not open soon.

Right now, you can see that the SP500 just had a MACD reversal and is on the downtrend.

This generally works for if you are buying the index. Do note that if the 200MA is above the 50MA, it generally means that there is something structurally wrong with the instrument as long term prices are much higher than short term downtrend, indicating a bearish death cross rather than buy the dip opportunity. You rarely get that with the index

This method has generally worked for me for lump sum in index, but as always, pls do your own research and due diligence

Also, do not rely solely on technical indicators and also understand the larger macro environment

Happy Thursday!

Hi, this is Pet1003 your ultra low risk pattern day trader

For the past year or so, SP500 is a good buy only when it goes below the 50MA, as it acts as sort of a magnet whenever the SPX goes too high

Anything below the 200MA is accumulation zone, and we had that recently in April this year

What I did not anticipate was a meteoric rise in the SP500 above the 200MA and 50MA to our current level at +8% from the 200MA within two weeks

This is most likely due to higher earnings in semiconductor +26% compared to +15% expected

One thing I want you to observe from the graph is that this rise up is trading on lower volume, and my data also shows that everyone now is playing call options disproportionately. This means that most likely retail and CTAs buying rather than institutional

I don’t like this blow off the top type of pattern way above the 50MA. Traditionally, this is when you sell and wait for some correction. Many people say that this dotcom level boom and bust, but to take a contrarian view, the main difference today is that this boom is supported by earnings.

I would still take some profit at this ATH level and wait for more dips to accumulate, but that is just me

I don’t think accumulating at this type of level is beneficial as risk reward ratio is very low.

Just my thoughts and happy Friday

We are in the middle of the most severe oil crisis in history, which is why KOSPI surged to all time high and had a brief sidecar trading halt today

In the meantime, bought SNDK last week using DBS dividend money and enjoying the ride up

This is now a game of musical chairs. Remember to take profits at ATHs!