u/Pet10003

Hello, looking at VWRA’s composition and 22.8% is concentrated into 10 tech companies, I’m wondering if there is going to be a significant drawdown risk here if interest rates go up, especially since tech is heavily susceptible to rate hikes

This is not a problem if you are holding for long term or want to buy during a dip / drawdown, which is a good thing, unless you are using leverage.

Since most of you here are VWRA investors, how are you managing this risk?

Hi this is Pet1003, your favorite DBS uncle. Now is the time of the year to do a performance review of VWRA vs the 3 local banks

Before you say this is ETF vs single stock, this is just from a local singaporean perspective la

As you can see from the chart, it is pretty self-explanatory. Also this chart excludes dividends and SGD appreciation against USD

I expect DBS to hit 80 and OCBC to reach 30 by EOY. Just add consistently when there is a pullback and enjoy the gains

Right now, NIMs are rather compressed but if there is an interest rate hike after the next FOMC, I would expect all banks to surge while VWRA / QQQ might take a hit.

Talk to you again when we reach new ATHs

Hi, this is Pet1003, your average DBS millionaire uncle. I understand some of you have transitioned from trading semis to becoming long term investors last week

We have seen some sideways consolidation in the SP500 and this will likely continue for sometime as the bollinger bands have not converged and volatility is still elevated. SPY has reached partial accumulation zones below MA50 the last few days, and adding positions below the lower bollinger (<732) is a nice long term play.

MACD and RSI are still in a downward pattern so short term bearishness is still there. The last time SPY dropped below MA50 was back in March 3, so these are nice zones to add right now.

There is a 60% chance of a rate hike coming in September according to Fedwatch CME group. Right now, markets are pushing up with the news of no rate hike yesterday, but rate hikes will dictate how things play out.

Sg banks earnings will come out next week. More likely than not, I would expect the top 2 local banks to surge forward and hit 80 / 30 respectively towards the end of the year. Local banks are pretty hot right now, with wealth management the prime focus. If rates are hiked in September, this could push prices further.

In any event, there is some rotation from local bank stocks to semis at the moment due to the fed rates being unchanged for now.

Talk to you soon when our local banks hit higher highs. Happy Friday!

Let’s talk about the 3 local banks instead of ILPs

For DBS at 64 right now with a div of 3.2, you are still getting a 5% return pa excluding capital gain

For OCBC at 23.9, the div is going to be around 3.5-4%

For UOB at 38.171, the div at $1.7 per share is around 4.4%

Then you have our dear MAS coming out to say they will speed up account opening for ultra wealthy clients

Singapore has been positioning itself as a wealth hub and that is its key strength. Apart from that, I don’t see how we have any advantage in AI compared to Taiwan (TSMC), US (NVDA, AVGO, GOOGL), S Korea (SK HYNIX, Samsung)

There is a looming oil crisis in the background but last I heard, Singapore is now importing Russian oil.

I would not be surprised if DBS hits 70 and OCBC hits 28 by the end of the year at this rate. With dividends reinvested, it would be possibly more profitable than VWRA / CSPX

Remember that you don’t actually own […], you merely keep it for the next generation!

Hi this is Pet1003, your friendly guy who you probably met at the local bank AGM

Generally speaking, lump sum into index will generally reap higher returns than DCA over a long period of time because index normally goes up over a long period of time

It therefore make sense to go in lump sum when there is a dip. But how do know whether it is a real dip to go into?

Usually I go in when price drops below <50 AND <200MA AND with a red bottom MACD. This is when lump sum can outdo DCA by a large magnitude.

This is really a game of patience, as opportunity like this comes once in a few months. We might be getting another one soon if Strait of Hormuz does not open soon.

Right now, you can see that the SP500 just had a MACD reversal and is on the downtrend.

This generally works for if you are buying the index. Do note that if the 200MA is above the 50MA, it generally means that there is something structurally wrong with the instrument as long term prices are much higher than short term downtrend, indicating a bearish death cross rather than buy the dip opportunity. You rarely get that with the index

This method has generally worked for me for lump sum in index, but as always, pls do your own research and due diligence

Also, do not rely solely on technical indicators and also understand the larger macro environment

Happy Thursday!

Hi, this is Pet1003 your ultra low risk pattern day trader

For the past year or so, SP500 is a good buy only when it goes below the 50MA, as it acts as sort of a magnet whenever the SPX goes too high

Anything below the 200MA is accumulation zone, and we had that recently in April this year

What I did not anticipate was a meteoric rise in the SP500 above the 200MA and 50MA to our current level at +8% from the 200MA within two weeks

This is most likely due to higher earnings in semiconductor +26% compared to +15% expected

One thing I want you to observe from the graph is that this rise up is trading on lower volume, and my data also shows that everyone now is playing call options disproportionately. This means that most likely retail and CTAs buying rather than institutional

I don’t like this blow off the top type of pattern way above the 50MA. Traditionally, this is when you sell and wait for some correction. Many people say that this dotcom level boom and bust, but to take a contrarian view, the main difference today is that this boom is supported by earnings.

I would still take some profit at this ATH level and wait for more dips to accumulate, but that is just me

I don’t think accumulating at this type of level is beneficial as risk reward ratio is very low.

Just my thoughts and happy Friday

We are in the middle of the most severe oil crisis in history, which is why KOSPI surged to all time high and had a brief sidecar trading halt today

In the meantime, bought SNDK last week using DBS dividend money and enjoying the ride up

This is now a game of musical chairs. Remember to take profits at ATHs!