u/Pistolpete_onthebeat

IMO, not inherently a good or bad thing, but he is certainly incentivized to see Metallium succeed. His last big dump/acquisition of shares was back in august 25' where he sold 8 million shares and simultaneously obtained 18 million due to performance rights.

His current share count is now 23 million (10 million existing and 13 million from recently exercised performance rights). I'll be watching what he does with these shares closely, from here on out. I understand being too concentrated in your own company's performance is risky, but that's also what gives leadership incentives to push forward. It seems like he is truly motivated to make FJH be a new step in the metal/mining processing space but ultimately, I cannot read his mind, only observe his actions.

What are everyone's thoughts so far?

Overall, it's a lot of generic updates regarding buildout, future planning and FJH tech potential. Basically, no scientific data or financial data, which is fine for now. Here are my takeaways from what was completed in the last quarter, and what is to come.

1. Undoubtedly, good progress was made this last quarter from a commercial buildout standpoint. More feedstock contracted, their generation 1 commercial modular FJH reactor has been built x4 and dry tested (sans chlorination testing), and they have the main building getting worked on relatively quickly. All of it is great to see, as it seems to show they can stand up a 8000 TPA plant relatively quickly without major delays (So far).
2. Michael and team seem focused on using investor capital well (IMO anyway). Adding the appropriate pre/post processing steps to capture maximum value will ultimately boost margins in the long run. Hard to say right now if its the right call as we cant compare to existing margin figures, but I like the way michael thinks/frames this. You always want management to focus on ways they can create value greater than the investment required to generate it.
3. Pleased to see a better timeline on FJH Nexus. This Gen 2 design is absolutely required for MTM to dominate the mineral processing space, so I'm glad they are already thinking about it. And, I'm also happy to see FID be set for H2 2027. They need to focus on getting the Gen 1 design optimized and eventually deployed into other geographic locations (ideally) over the next year.
4. Going forward, the most important progress that needs to be made is the chlorination campaign. All eyes on that.
5. Cash burn is not bad. I think they still have runway for end of 2027 easily, even with additional spend on equipment. It's about 5 mil currently for operations it seems, but I would think that has to increase as more commissioning ramps ups.

Overall, there is a lot of talk about the future and MTM's potential in this update. We are still lacking hard data to really show what the financials are capable of being.

At a certain point though, if enough deals are made with big players, you could start to make some assumptions that the economics are good. I've continued to DCA small amounts into the 4s. Once again, I will say that if margins prove to be attractive, I'd be happy to double my position as I think MTM is ahead of their peers in this market and would not face great margin compression for quite some time.

I still see this stock stagnating or trading lower until H1 2027, unless some great news from the chlorination campaign provides excellent results, or there is a big deal made with an off taker/someone interested in a major PaaS deal.

I use pivotal weather/tropical tidbits to understand general trends in weather (temps/wind/precip amounts), but this isnt very specific to mountain weather. For example, I can see in the image below that per GFS, total precip could be up to 1.5-2 inches for baker/cascades. My understanding of the 10:1 ratio (given the storms characteristics) up to a 1.5-2' could fall at the freezing elevation "line".

Is there a more specific way to find a predicted snow total?

https://preview.redd.it/a709hc87w89h1.png?width=891&format=png&auto=webp&s=16a62a87c07843c9748e80660688c3422e12ebb9

CG's projected 2027 EBITA puts Metalliums current EV/EBITA in A$ at ~3 which is crazzzzzzzzzzzzzy. Ive read through it a couple times and there's still too much scale up risk IMO to take any projections beyond 2027 seriously (until stage 1 ramp up has been shown to operate smoothly).

Anyway, it's a great piece of info to read if you are wondering about the prospects of this company financially and not just basing things on vibes. Koyfin still shows their current price target as 1.6 A$, so they have not downgraded (yet).

Can do pay pal gs, or Venmo if need be. I will coordinate with you on how to “transfer” the ticket but just know there is no official transfer like AXS since the tickets are through etix. Dm me please.

I tested it with a friend so i don’t foresee any issues with doing it this way!

And no this is not a scam. Just would rather give the ticket to someone who has more stoke and can bring the vibes. Bad start to the week but life goes on!

I know there’s his Tao Beach set, but that’s more for EDC.

I so so so badly want him to come back to Denver this year. However, I’m sure it won’t happen. Hoping at the very least he does a non-festival DJ set for new years like Echo stage or elsewhere. I would travel for that.

Also, I’m including Zedd in the Park as a “festival”.