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r/PakistanStockX r/FIREPakistan
Image 1 — Beyond PnL% #1: What Exactly is this new TWR metric ?
Image 2 — Beyond PnL% #1: What Exactly is this new TWR metric ?
Image 3 — Beyond PnL% #1: What Exactly is this new TWR metric ?
Image 4 — Beyond PnL% #1: What Exactly is this new TWR metric ?
▲ 11 r/FIREPakistan

Beyond PnL% #1: What Exactly is this new TWR metric ?

Alot of portfolio trackers have started showing this new metric: TWR

however most people don't understand it yet, so lets try to understand it with some simple and easy to understand examples

a little bit long post so please bear, it will be worth it

so what it is and how exactly its different from well known total PnL % which everyone is familiar with, why do we even need it?

Lets go through an easy to understand example:

- You buy Rs 10,000 worth of OGDC.

- The stock rises 50%, so your portfolio value is now 15000.

- Feeling excited, you bought further Rs 500,000 worth of stocks, taking your position total to 515,000.

-The stock then takes a slight decline of 6%.

- This takes your portfolio value to 484,100

You invested 510,000, and your portfolio value is 484,100 bringing your Total PnL% to -5.1%

However when you look at OGDC price chart, its still up 41% over the same period

(50% gain and a 6% drop from top comes out to be 41% from starting point)

Congrats, you just calculated the TWR of the portfolio!!

Looks simple right? it seems just price return of the stock.

For single stocks portfolio, it is exactly that simple and thats why I chose this as an example

TWR is simply the underlying performance of your asset, irrespective of when you put in or out the money

So what does it represent? It tells you your quality/performance of your underlying asset irrespective of when you put your money in or out, and lets you compare it benchmarks

Assume KSE100 did 25% during the same period. The problem with that negative -5.1% total PnL% is that it doesnt show you whether your underlying asset is bad or your market timing was bad (or both)

In this case, your asset was good, just your timing was bad.

A positive TWR doesn't mean you made money. You still lost money, but now you know the WHY behind it (bad market timing vs bad asset quality)

and that's exactly the purpose of TWR

In next few posts, will go over it again in much more detail especially for multi stocks portfolios where it will start making more sense.

u/PracticeEastern9413 — 14 days ago
▲ 9 r/PakistanStockX

KSE100 Complete history since 1991

Proud to announce FinHisaab has now full KSE100 history from its inception in 1991

You probably wont find this anywhere easily in a structured and presentable form like this

Always bothered me why we don't have full histories when it comes to PSX, so just solved this one!

Goal is to make FinHisaab one of the best investment research platform of the country.

Much more to come..

Link: https://finhisaab.com/indices/KSE100

u/PracticeEastern9413 — 22 days ago
▲ 21 r/FIREPakistan

If you invest in Meezan Cash Fund, reconsider it..

As the title says, you are paying a whopping 2x+ in TER 1.29% vs 0.6% average), compared to other top peers

This in turn is dragging your returns down by almost a % yearly

might not be noticeable for small amounts, but worth to consider if amount is big

Always research for low TER and comparable performance funds when finalizing any fund for investing

u/PracticeEastern9413 — 26 days ago
▲ 6 r/FIREPakistan+1 crossposts

Curious where mutual fund managers in Pakistan are putting new money right now? 👀

Looking at fund reports from July to August 2026 (119 funds), the big story is energy - Oil & Gas Exploration and Refinery stocks pulled in over Rs 17 billion combined in fresh allocation.

Meanwhile, funds pulled money out of Textiles, Investment Banks, Cement and Auto - Rs 5 billion came out of textile stocks

Full breakdown in image attached

Source: Fund Manager Reports for August 2026 across all AMCs

u/PracticeEastern9413 — 1 month ago
▲ 22 r/FIREPakistan+1 crossposts

KSE-100 historical loss probability: 41% at 1 month, 14% at 5 years, 0% at 10 years

I ran a rolling holding-period analysis on the KSE-100 using 7,919 trading days from 25 May 1994 to 4 Sep 2026 - 32 years of official index closing data

The percentage of historical periods that finished positive was:

1 month: 59.0%

3 months: 62.4%

6 months: 65.4%

1 year: 70.0%

3 years: 73.8%

5 years: 86.0%

10 years: 100.0%

15 years: 100.0%

Put differently, the historical loss rate fell from 41% over 1 month to 14% over 5 years, and in this dataset there were no losing 10-year or 15-year holding periods.

A pretty clear illustration of how much time horizon can matter in equity investing.

Important: 0% historical loss over 10 or 15 years means none occurred in this specific historical sample. It does not mean future 10- or 15-year returns are guaranteed to be positive.

u/PracticeEastern9413 — 1 month ago
▲ 144 r/FIREPakistan+1 crossposts

I ran same simulation on KSE100, here are the results:

I ran a simulation on 32 years of KSE-100 historical data to see the impact of missing the market’s “best” days vs avoiding its “worst” days.

The results are a strong reminder of why “time in the market” usually beats “timing the market.”

The Baseline (Buy & Hold)

Period: 32 Years (May 1994 - May 2026)

Start: 1994-05-25 - (index 2,247 points) End: 2026-05-14 - (index 166,499 points)

Initial Investment: Rs 1,000,000 (10 Lakh)

Final Value: Rs 74,535,024 (7.45 Crore) - 74.5x your money

Annual Return (CAGR): 14.44%

  1. The "Best Days" Penalty

What happens to your Rs 10 Lakh if you were out of the market during the best-performing days?

• Missed 0 best days: Rs 74,535,024 (7.45 Crore) - Baseline

• Missed 5 best days: Rs 45,568,391 (4.56 Crore)

• Missed 10 best days: Rs 30,974,244 (3.10 Crore)

• Missed 25 best days: Rs 12,816,290 (1.28 Crore)

• Missed 100 best days: Rs 584,442 (5.84 Lakh) - You lost money

WARNING:

Missing just the top 1.3% of trading days (100 days out of ~7,800 trading days) turned a 74x gain into an overall loss.

  1. The "Worst Days" Fantasy

If you had a crystal ball and perfectly stepped out of the market during the biggest crashes:

• Avoided 5 worst days: Rs 124,457,019 (12.45 Crore)

• Avoided 25 worst days: Rs 468,383,865 (46.84 Crore)

• Avoided 100 worst days: Rs 13,510,900,675 (13.51 Billion / 1,351 Crore)

  1. The Catch: Why you can't have one without the other

The simulation shows that the best and worst days are almost always “neighbors.” They usually happen during periods of extreme volatility.

• 73% of the worst 100 days occurred within 10 trading days of a best 100 day.

• 58% of the worst 100 days occurred within 5 trading days of a best 100 day.

Example:

• Worst Day ever: 1998-06-01 (-12.38%)

• Best Day ever: 1998-06-03 (+13.61%)

They happened just 48 hours apart.

If you panic sold on Monday to “avoid the worst,” there’s a high chance you also missed the rebound on Wednesday.

Conclusion

Unless you have a crystal ball, the safest way to capture the 74x long-term growth of the KSE-100 was simply staying invested through the noise.

u/PracticeEastern9413 — 5 months ago
▲ 21 r/FIREPakistan+1 crossposts

Ever looked at your portfolio and felt like the math just doesn't add up?

You see green numbers next to your stock. It’s genuinely up - your broker confirms it. But your total "Invested vs Current Value"? You’re actually down money.

This isn't a glitch. It’s because most investors use the word "Return" for three completely different questions.

The Paradox: A Simple Example

Imagine this scenario (happens more often than you think):

  1. Jan 1: You invest Rs 100,000 in a stock.
  2. April 1: The stock goes up 10%. You feel like a genius and decide to go "all in."
  3. April 1: You deposit another Rs 900,000. Total value: Rs 1,010,000.
  4. July 1: The market dips slightly, say -5%.

The Result? Your total money is now Rs 959,500. You put in Rs 1,000,000. You are down Rs 40,500 (-4.05%). But the stock itself is actually UP.

1. The Asset Performance (TWR)

If you look at the stock’s journey (+10% then -5%), the "Time-Weighted Return" is actually +4.5%.

  • The Lesson: The stock was a good pick. The strategy worked.
  • Use TWR when: You want to know if your stock-picking or fund manager is actually good.

2. Your Personal Timing (MWR)

Because you added the bulk of your money after the rally, your "Money-Weighted Return" is -7.2%.

  • The Lesson: Your timing killed your gains. You exposed more capital to the -5% drop than you did to the +10% gain.
  • Use MWR when: You want to judge your own behavior and cash-flow timing.

3. The Benchmark Comparison (XIRR)

If you want to compare this to a bank FD or inflation, you need an annualized number. In this example, your XIRR is roughly -14%.

  • The Lesson: This is your "Personal Inflation Rate." It’s the only number that tells you how you’re doing compared to "doing nothing" (like keeping money in a savings account or low risk money market mutual fund).

>Note: This example only has two cashflows and two price movements - so the math feels manageable numbers look straightforward and pure common sense. But in reality, most investors are adding money monthly, withdrawing occasionally, and riding through years of unpredictable market swings. With 30+ cashflows across multiple funds and stocks, calculating MWR or XIRR by hand becomes nearly impossible - and eyeballing ROI only becomes dangerously misleading. This is exactly why understanding which metric to track, and having a structured way to do it, matters more than most people realize.

Why this matters:

If you only look at ROI (Total Gain/Loss), you might sell a perfectly good stock because "it’s losing money," when in reality, the stock is performing great - you just bought at the wrong time.

Conversely, you might think you're a "trading god" because your XIRR is 30%, but if the TWR of the index is 40%, you're actually underperforming the market and just got lucky with a large deposit timing.

TL;DR:

  • TWR tells you if the investment is good.
  • MWR tells you if your timing was good.
  • XIRR tells you how it compares to a yearly bank rate.

If your numbers look "off," stop looking at simple ROI. It’s the least useful metric for a long-term investor.

What's next? In the next post of this series, I'll be diving deep into Simple ROI vs. MWR. Notice from the example above: your ROI was -4.05% (down Rs 40,500 on Rs 1,000,000) but your MWR was -7.2%. Both are supposed to measure your personal returns - so why are they different numbers? And which one should you actually trust? That's exactly what we'll unpack next.

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u/PracticeEastern9413 — 5 months ago