Built a public, graded MLB projection model (hits/TB/HR/K) — tracking every pick's accuracy openly, AMA
Been building a statistical projection model for MLB hitting/pitching
stats over the last several weeks — hits, total bases, home runs,
strikeouts — adjusted for park factors, weather, platoon splits (vs-hand
splits), and opposing pitcher quality, with empirical-Bayes shrinkage for
small-sample players.
The part I think is actually interesting from a methodology standpoint:
every projection gets logged and graded against the real outcome
afterward, nothing removed in hindsight. 1,534 graded so far:
- HR projections: 89.5% hit rate
- Total bases: 68.7%
- Hits: 66.7%
- Strikeouts: still rough, only 12 graded, being upfront that it's weak
Happy to get into the methodology, what's underperforming, or critique
the approach — genuinely looking for sabermetrics-minded feedback, not
just promoting it. Site's at propyard.net/track-record if anyone wants to
see the raw graded history.