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u/Prudent_Student2839

Image 1 — My edge
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▲ 0 r/sportsanalytics

My edge

Hey guys. So, I have an edge, or at least I believe I have an edge. This edge relies on a simple logisticregression model and an implied probability filter based on moneyline opening odds. It uses simple features like running diff and team level stats etc and can be used to predict future game outcomes as soon as odds drop on a Sportsbook.

You can look at my website’s history page to see the walkforward backtests and current forward test.
https://baseballpredictions.net/history?mode=featured
No I’m not trying to advertise the website here it just has the history already collated.

Anyways, my edge seems to be somewhere like 6-20% ROI on 30-140 bets per season (of course in the backtests only this year is an actual forward test so we will see how the season ends. Either way, the problem is that even if I bet on every bet for the whole season and it’s the maximum amount profitable I still don’t make anywhere near enough money to retire with the amount of bankroll I am willing to put on each bet.

The question is, what do I do from here? Obviously I will finish betting this season and see if my backtesting is at all accurate in the forward test, but even if it is accurate, I still need to somehow improve my edge.

Pretty much rambling but I hope you got the point. I have an edge supposedly, and the edge seems pretty good, but apparently it’s not even good and I feel stuck? Thoughts??!

Bets attached (only 20 pictures allowed can post the rest in a separate post if you want or maybe I can comment them?)

u/Prudent_Student2839 — 1 day ago
▲ 1 r/Entrepreneurs

Advertisement avenues?

Hey guys I built a baseball prediction website called https://baseballpredictions.net. So far (it has been up for 1 month) I’ve gotten 50 site visitors and 3 paid users (2 day pass users and 1 monthly user). I have posted about it on one baseball analysis discord I’m in and in a few subreddits as well. It seems that maybe the hardest part about growing my website will be advertising.

Do you guys think Reddit ads might be worth doing? I was hoping to not have to do paid advertisements, but it seems like that might be the only realistic option? Any other ideas? Facebook groups maybe?

Curious to hear how you guys have gotten your products in front of your intended audiences and what you might recommend

Tech stack if you’re curious: Next.js on Vercel, Supabase for storing picks, Clerk for auth, and an hourly cron job that pulls new data and runs the model automatically.

reddit.com
u/Prudent_Student2839 — 12 days ago
▲ 4 r/micro_saas+2 crossposts

[1 month update] baseballpredictions.net - got my first paying users and started putting real money on my model

Hey everybody,

About a month ago I posted here about making a baseball prediction website called http://baseballpredictions.net

Since then a couple of things have happened. I got my first monthly subscriber and day pass users, but more importantly, I added an ROI chart, and I added my featured picks that I have actually been betting along with this season.

I wasn't perfectly consistent, but I placed bets on 21 of the 26 games my model has predicted so far this season. I placed ~$20 per bet for a net total of $417.92 risked, and $472.44 won ($54.52 Net total). Now, it is still early in the season and if I had placed 26 out of the 26 bets I would have only netted closer to $20-30 (4.5% ROI), but I will keep betting for the rest of the season and update you on the final season performance at a later date. I can also show screenshots of my bets on draftkings if you need proof as well, but it seems that posts don't allow for pictures so just comment if you want the pictures and I'll figure out how to upload them to imgur or something.

You may be wondering why I am selling my edge, and that is simply because my risk tolerance is too low. I just can't bring myself to risk more than $20-30 a game and it just feels like I'm not utilizing the model to the best of its potential.

Obvious disclaimer: not guaranteed profit, edges decay, variance happens, only bet what you can afford to lose (if you do choose to try it)

Let me know if you have any questions or suggestions or just what you think

baseballpredictions.net
u/Prudent_Student2839 — 12 days ago