u/Random-AsianGuy

I believe the current contract between Dish and Disney expires this year, likely this month.

Dish/Sling would want:

1. Access to ESPN Unlimited (others already have them)
2. Unbundle ESPN from other Disney channles (YouTube TV and DirecTV already offer sports only packages)

Disney/ESPN would want:

1. Carriage fee increase
2. Discontinue day pass

It appears that the day pass program is already terminated.

Are Sling/Disney going to enter into a new contract soon?

If so, are we going to see a new bundle and/or price increase?

I see some people all of a sudden act like the PCSA will kill the ACC.

Guess what?

Without the PCSA, there won’t be any cap at all and the B10 could technically become the B24.

The 20 team cap is still better than no cap and somewhat restrictive.

Let's think about the B10 and ND. If the B10 adds two ACC football schools now, that means they will never get ND. Never.

Will they wait or give up on ND? I don't know.

But I do know ND is by far the most valuable target for the B10.

The SEC doesn’t need to add four schools and will probably just add two, knowing the B10 will never be able to add more than two schools and that one of those two will most likely have to be ND.

Per Ross Dellenger:

Lawmakers are eyeing key changes to the expansion provision in the PCSA to provide more flexibility to move conferences, sources tell YahooSports

The change reduces the independent probationary period for schools from 5 to 3 years and terminates the concept after six years.

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He also said Miami, Clemson, FSU, UNC & Stanford have expressed concerns to lawmakers over the provision.

So these five schools have high hopes of leaving the ACC and joining the SEC/B10.

I am fine with getting rid of five year independence requirement as long as the 19 team cap stays.

Keeping the independence requirement for 6 years seems like a protection for the B12 (and Cody) whose media right will expire in 2031.

Maybe I am the only one who follows this bill but PCSA can have a very significant implication on the future of the ACC.

I am debating between Sling Essentials with Sports Extra and ESPN Unlimited. I used to have Sling Orange with Sports Extra until I switched to ESPN Unlimited last year.

The question I have is about ACCN extra and SECN+.

Sling Orange with Sports Extra contain these channels in the Sling platform. In other words, I didn't have to log on ESPN app.

Is that same for Sling Essentials with Sports Extra? I cannot get a clear answer and would appreciate if somebody knows the answer.

My prediction has long been that the ACC may lose up to four schools in 2030, but since its media deal runs through 2036 and it is financially secure until then, the ACC will target Big 12 schools to backfill.

Now, what if the PCSA passes? I don’t think it’s going to end realignment, but it will definitely change the calculations. The final moves will be less drastic, as the SEC can still expand and snatch up to three schools, but most likely only two more.

How can ACC schools leave the conference and stay independent for five years?

I believe the Notre Dame model will serve as a template. Currently, ND is a member of the ACC for all sports except football and plays five or six ACC games. It receives about 40% to half a share from the conference and also has an independent media deal with NBC.

But can the departing ACC schools find independent football TV deals like NBC’s?

The “independent football TV deal” is basically going to be an ESPN deal. From ESPN’s perspective, UNC joining the SEC as a full member versus a partial member playing five or six SEC games won’t be that different. UNC will also play its travel partner, which will be covered by ESPN as well.

So if ESPN is willing to pay the SEC a full share for UNC, it will pay almost a full share, if not the full share, to the SEC/UNC when UNC joins the SEC as a non-football member à la the ND arrangement. After five years, UNC will then fully join the SEC.

Now, what about the ACC raiding the Big 12? I think it would still happen, but the movement will be scaled down. Instead of four or five schools, the ACC will target only two or three Big 12 schools. The ACC is likely going to lose two schools, one of which will be UNC, I suspect, meaning at least two of the three football schools (Miami, FSU, and Clemson) would stay. These football schools will give the ACC an edge over the Big 12 for the long term. The ACC currently has about a $7 million average advantage. But the ACC is not distributing money equally. The ACC’s top earners will make at least over $20 million more than the Big 12 schools, and that would be an incentive for high-profile Big 12 schools to join the ACC.

The ACC exit fee would be $75 million by 2030. If two schools leave, the ACC will collect $150 million, which can be used to help the departing Big 12 schools pay their own exit fees—except for Utah, which doesn’t have to pay an exit fee.The ACC already has a non-football member and can easily accommodate two or three more non-football members if ESPN is willing.

So here’s the fun part. What will be the final end-stage conference membership for the Power 4 conferences if the PCSA becomes law?

This is my current forecast:

Big Ten (18): Stay at 18 and wait for ND, which may join in 2036 SEC (18): Current schools + UNC and UVa ACC (18 + ND): Current schools − UNC and UVa + Utah and Arizona State + UConn Big 12 (16 or 18): Current schools − Utah and Arizona State + two or four of the following schools: Oregon State, SDSU, USF, UNLV, and Memphis

In the end, it’s all up to ESPN. Isn't it?

The SEC and B10 will take their final position very soon on whether to support it or not.

I have been saying that the ACC won't lose more than four schools in 2030 but if PCSA is passed, the B10 and SEC would be legally barred from decimating other P4 conferences (they may still grow up to 19 schools. It's not clear at this point)

Phillips said Wednesday during his annual forum that the league would crack $900 million in total revenue for the just-completed 2025-26 season.

By comparison, the Big Ten and SEC both crossed the $1 billion mark in total revenue in their 2024-25 filings, with the Big Ten paying an average of nearly $79.9 million to full-share members while the SEC came in at nearly $72.4 million.

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That $900 million equates to approximately $51.4 million per school for its 17.5 members. Whenever the ACC hits a revenue milestone, the media typically contrasts its revenue with that of the SEC and Big Ten. They almost always do.

But look at the Big 12. Their projected revenue for 2025-2026 is $710 million, which translates to roughly $44.4 million per school. (the media coverage of the Big 12’s revenue typically focuses on its growth and resilience.)

These figures represent total revenue, not distributions. Still, it is very likely that the ACC will maintain roughly a $7 million per-school advantage over the Big 12 in the first year of the B12’s new media deal.

I’ve said it many times, but it’s comical how many realignment “experts” predict that several ACC schools will jump to the B12 around 2030.

Why would any ACC school pay a $75 million exit fee just to join the Big 12 and get paid “less”? That’s just an asinine take.

Their reasoning is always the same: when the ACC loses some schools to the P2 around 2030, its value will plummet and the remaining schools will need a lifeboat.

But come on, the ACC’s media deal does not expire in 2030. The ESPN contract runs through 2036.

The ACC will still get paid more than the Big 12 through 2036 unless the Big 12 strikes a miraculous mega deal in 2031.

I don’t see that happening in this tough media market. It’s likely the ACC will maintain its lead.

Not only that, but unless the Big 12 adopts unequal revenue distribution, its top programs will trail the ACC’s top programs by $20 million+. (In other words, the Big 12’s top tier schools will have a financial incentive to move to the ACC)

Texas Tech isn’t headed to the ACC. But according to one longtime sports media insider, the Red Raiders are being discussed as a potential contingency plan if relations between Texas Tech and the Big 12 continue to deteriorate.

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I have been saying that the ACC will target the Big 12.

To be fair, TTU was not on my list not because it doesn’t bring value, but because the ACC brass cares about academics.

But TTU would be a great addition, especially along with Utah and/or Arizona State.

While some interpret Section 205 differently, those who helped develop the language on Capitol Hill confirmed with Yahoo Sports that the provision prevents the four conferences from acquiring any new member — even those in the G6.

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I told you all.

The bill passed the committee and it looks like they may have a chance to become a law.

As y'all know, PCSA is significant because it contains anti expansion provision. Maybe the ACC is saved?

I am not a lawyer.

But PCSA is interesting because I think it aims to rectify the flawed incentive that has turned conferences into behemoths.

The real reason the P2 has been expanding is to generate more media revenue. Under the current system, TV networks generally negotiate with conferences, so from a conference’s perspective, it makes sense to add schools that deliver the highest media ratings and subscriptions.

I don't think PCSA will entirely prevent the P2 from expanding. If the P2 joins media pooling, adding schools won't have the impact on the membership requirement under PCSA

In other words, they could still add ACC schools as long as they pool the media right with everyone else but would they want to do so?

The financial incentive would be significantly weaker, meaning schools would only be added if there’s a genuine desire to associate with them and play against them on the field. And if you think about it, isn't this what a true conference should be?

From this angle, PCSA is not as onerous as people think. It doesn’t completely block the free movement of schools. It simply removes the monetary aspect from conference membership changes, encouraging more bona fide, voluntary associations among like minded institutions.

I was watching Phillips speech during the ACC spring game and was surprised to hear Phillips mentioned a 10 game schedule.

Granted he was just trying to answer if the 24 team playoff would undermine a regular season, but he won't mention it unless he knew something.

Then I saw this from X:

https://https://twitter.com/RossDellenger/status/2057569072586318146 @RossDellenger A nugget in here: The Big Ten discussed with its football coaches earlier this week the idea of playing 10 conference games, something that looms as the league and SEC explore self-governance models.

The good thing about ten conference game schedule is that they can implement the 3-7-7 schedule.

The B10 made headlines by distributing a whopping $1.37 billion. That translates to an average of $76.1M per member school, or $79.9M for full members. The SEC also distributed $1.03 billion, with full members receiving an average payout of $72.4M.

I predict the B12’s payout for full members will be around $35 million, while ACC full members will receive $46–50M. The ACC will see wider variation even among full members due to its success initiative.

Expect the media and pundits to focus on the gap between the ACC /B12 and the P2, conveniently ignoring the gap between the ACC and the B12.