u/RefrigeratorTasty912

On the opening day of the Paris Motor Show 2026, Volkswagen Group will host an exclusive investor and analyst event under the theme "FOR EUROPE". The event will provide strategic insights into Volkswagen Group's product and technology roadmap and offer opportunities for direct engagement with senior management and experts.

At a minimum, I think this is when VW/CARIAD officially announce their selection of Wayve.

It would be great to wake up Monday morning, to a similar "Arbe selected for L3 in Europe by a Leading Global Automotive Group"... or better yet, directly named.

Autoshows have historically been very good for Arbe. If my Master Speculation theory has any merit, this would be the ultimate location to disclose the selection.

After that... 1 week later is Berlin GTC.

I've listened to Arbe's Q1/Q2 2026 ER in preparation... they speak a lot about VLA's, Data Collection Programs etc etc. You might want to spend some time this evening or weekend brushing up. it was one of the major reasons I threw $2k at Arbe's all time low today.

buried in the forward looking statement section of today's SEC filing:

https://www.streetinsider.com/SEC+Filings/Form+424B5+Arbe+Robotics+Ltd./27110658.html

https://preview.redd.it/ukb9bdwpv9sh1.jpg?width=963&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=774fb620b9c0fe49fd8c31fb83e0d7888565706f

If you are reading this... step 1: DO NOT PANIC... if it doubt, refer to step 1.

Please refer to the "DO NOT PANIC" infographic above. And remember... DO NOT PANIC!

Authorization is required to get 180 day extension

Biggest reason r/S won't happen in 2026, is the Debentures... if Arbe does a 1:4 split, the $3.10 target jumps 4x to $12.40... making the escrow unreachable.

Keep in mind... the Debentures were secured (June 2024) exactly 1 month before Arbe was selected by the Top 10 OEM in July of 2024). There is a very very very good possibility, that the OEM required proof of funds to secure initial production orders before signing that original contract.

Also... if you have been following my other posts, that Top 10 OEM is most likely the same "Leading Global Automotive Group" (cough... cough.. VW Group.. cough...) that is referenced in the recent L3 selection.

so... what should you take away from this??

DO NOT PANIC!

Instead of panicking, look forward to VW Group announcing the HW Contract winner that replaces Bosch this month :)

Part of the news of VW Group ending its alliance with Bosch/CARIAD, was that a new hardware supplier contract was going to be announced in September of 2026:

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volkswagen-plans-end-automated-driving-tie-up-with-bosch-bild-reports-2026-06-28/

https://preview.redd.it/bgdsnoqs9qoh1.png?width=691&format=png&auto=webp&s=644c8c908c75ad20f0ac739657bb06790d99010c

The Radar Selection news could have been the first of many, selections with HiRain's name on it...

Seeing how big this hardware replacement contract would be, I think VW Group makes the announcement, naming HiRain directly, securing a pure play "In China, By China" strategy.

VW Group has many events leading up to their Q3 ER on October 29th, 2026. And they have yet to name the major hardware contract...

If VW Group names HiRain, this will directly point to VW using Arbe based radars. Follow on effect... the Global Automotive Group is revealed, Arbe goes rockets to the moon!

I'm doubling down on my VW Group being the "Leading Global Automotive Group" referenced in the recent L3 program selection news.

As you all remember, Kobi essentially told Stephen Tobin that a German OEM was more or less in the bag, and could be announced on Christmas, or soon after the new year... It never came to be, and many FUD spreaders used this lack of a win, to sling mud at Kobi and Arbe.

Well... from 2021~2024, things were much different for VW Group's subsidiary CARIAD... L3 was projected to start as early as 2025:

https://preview.redd.it/xkmz57yripoh1.png?width=1086&format=png&auto=webp&s=fa93c9895b98328a1a4d5cf4d227ebbdad05c41c

A major restructuring occurred in 2023, which very well could have been the pre-cursor to the partnership with HiRain, and by Mid/Late 2024 signaled a major shift from CARIAD development and into joint ventures with Rivian (US) and XPeng (China).

The very last deathblow to CARIAD occurred just recently, when VW more or less completely dissolved the Western CARIAD/Bosch alliance, putting an end to Western market L3 developed internally. Remember the OEM that was imminently expected at the end of 2025... could VW's Decision to end the CARIAD JV development been decided in Dec of 2025, delaying another selection event for Arbe?

Everyone of these major hurdles/shifts within VW Group, delayed a market entry of L3 from 2025 to H2 2027. And they perfectly lined up with Arbe's "go to market" strategy... every delay felt by VW, was a delay to start of production for Arbe.

I think it has been VW Group all along, I even think the Top 10 OEM selection in July of 2024, was VW Group in order to secure future chipset supplies... we have some old threads on that. "For example, VW is buying chipsets and taking it to a Tier-1 like Magna" a famous Kobi quote... was it a slip of the tongue or was it just an "example"?

Now, a "Leading Global Automotive Group" is having HiRain finalize a radar... we don't know if its an existing LRR610/LRR615, or a unique OEM Radar... the news release didn't say.

Obviously, this is speculation, and I don't have any insider knowledge... take it with a grain of salt, but more and more signs are pointing to VW Group incubating Arbe very early on... the shift in VW's strategy post 2024 perfectly explains why Arbe was still doing tape-outs of their chipset into 2025, even though they stated it was production ready. VW changed entire platforms, hardware, and central processing... Arbe needed to ensure their chipset could deliver what was required of these shifting architectural requirements. If VW was the only OEM ready to buy them, and they didn't need the original design, there was no reason for Arbe or HiRain to start production in 2024.

My goodness... does that look like a very good smoking gun to anyone else?

The Agreement was signed in 2023-08-01. 3 years ago...

Did VW not suffer a lot of setbacks with CARIAD/CARIZON that affected their production schedule... leading to delays that could have affected downstream Tier-1s and Tier-2 suppliers in 2024/2025...

This sure makes things come to light with yesterday's news...

Keep an eye on this one. They just came out of stealth, and immediately "poached" an Arbe Embedded Software Team Lead:

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/aitan-emerges-from-stealth-defines-new-defense-category-of-robotic-sovereignty-as-a-service--closes-41-million-funding-round-to-scale-its-battle-proven-technology-globally-302867620.html

18 hours ago, the employee posted this:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/idan-mishor-89900482/

https://preview.redd.it/2b3p36od0doh1.png?width=565&format=png&auto=webp&s=f35e088919b27912061d68527ada2014212505f6

He is still listed as working with Arbe BTW...

Who is he you ask:

I'll let Arbe answer that question, as he was prominently featured 9 months ago:

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/arbe-robotics_as-radar-application-framework-team-lead-activity-7399035389430267905-6yxR?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAFjULcgBKjoa9krOISyi8PWWZeGeFQh6Z_Q

Why this is interesting... well, a company in Israel all of a sudden became one of Arbe's biggest customers in H2 2026 per the mid-year 20-F.

Loving this marketing strategy!

Does this rule out Cybercab's 100 vehicle test fleet secretly having Arbe radars? Probably...

I'm down quite a bit. Arbe is near an all time low (again) so... to ensure I lose my entire 4+ year investment I should totally sell near the all time record low right?

I'm thinking, I'll record a loss now, then wait for the next Hype wave to buy at the top, I'd hate to lose out! I'll follow that up with getting depressed with another 30~60% drop... and of course, because Arbe NEVER goes up, I'll sell at the bottom again...

Instead of accepting defeat, I'll buy right back up at the next high, because momma ain't raised no quitter!

Obviously, because my investment only loses money, it's Arbe's management's fault! They are scam scam! I don't even know why a vacuum doesn't have a $1,000 radar, and I hate ADAS and have no idea what L2 is vs L4... Arbe sells robots, right?

/s

To my great surprise... https://fccid.io/2BPZ2SDP0045

This was provided to me, so I cannot take credit. I'll let the tipster take credit if they wish, or they can remain anonymous.

We get to see the insides 12/01/2026. Would love to see how it compares to Arbe's solution.

The outside housing does look a bit more refined... sorry Arbe, it's true.

https://preview.redd.it/v7n7ypxkmjnh1.png?width=655&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ac8d18a3ce4c29c71e05479624b5103161eb0ca

The test report confirms it is using a multi-layer wave guide antenna.

https://preview.redd.it/55jbcn3pmjnh1.png?width=597&format=png&auto=webp&s=a922c1d6b1d70aaa7045fbbb94b94dc2933a4198

(also... I missed this in Arbe's FCC posting... their report also stated it was using a wave guide antenna...)

2 radars with FCC ID's in less than a year. Pretty awesome sauce!

I noticed something in this announcement... the radar no longer has the white text on the radar cover...

I think the previous iterations were using the Continental ARS548

New:

New Image

Older image

ARS 540 Imaging Radar:
https://www.yolegroup.com/product/teardown-track/continental-ars5a-ars540-4d-longrange-radar/

https://preview.redd.it/75bryjamndnh1.png?width=225&format=png&auto=webp&s=0f4cce3224b75ede7ef2cec3335db41642be6c81

would be interesting if there was a last minute upgrade...

why does it appear to have a waveguide antenna!?!?!?

https://preview.redd.it/u8oi0mpmm4nh1.png?width=681&format=png&auto=webp&s=f404ccca15fa27d092dce845dc2fae9cd04d057f

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/eas/reports/ViewExhibitReport.cfm?mode=Exhibits&RequestTimeout=500&calledFromFrame=N&application_id=4mOTkCmeMFFZ0Ml%2F1Xbt3Q%3D%3D&fcc_id=2BUV6-ARP-B05C

This is a company we should probably be keeping an eye on.

https://www.linkedin.com/company/cartio-robotics/

Founded by 2 Sensrad engineers with a previous Qamcom CEO as the board of directors.

1 engineer left Sensrad back in February, the other just announced their departure the same day Cartio Robotics was founded.

If I understand the intent, they want to take SLAM at the single vehicle/robot level experience and produce a fleet wide level map for all participants to update and utilize.

Their account on LinkedIn is already engaging with Arbe's post positively, so, it could be a sign of things to come for Arbe.

Sensrad, however, appears to be pairing down employment levels drastically following the Q2 Gapwaves impairment. I have a theory on that one, but I'm still chasing some bread crumbs. The founding of Cartio actually supports the theory even more:

I think that Arbe co-funding Sensrad's FCC/CE certifications and the support contract that happened only a month after Arbe's last dilution round, which funded their own production line, points to much closer ties than originally understood.

Sensrad has viable customer demand with Hugin D1, but not at the demand levels that Gapwaves can still support with their own dwindling cash reserves starved of funds by chasing antenna demand from Valeo/Geely.

It appears Sensrad employment levels dropped from 20 in 2024, to under 10 currently (maybe even less than 7). They've hit skeleton crew levels, and very well could have outsourced most development work to Arbe through the support agreement.

At the end of the day, Gapwaves wants to sell advanced antennas for high channel count imaging radars, but they don't have the funds to continue being a 30% owner without making the drastic cuts to labor. Arbe's release of their own radar impacts near term 6-month turn around contracts that Sensrad was also competing for.

The Hugin D1 radar is an amazing piece of technology, and I don't think it's development/certification ends here. I also don't see Qamcom re-absorbing it if Gapwaves decides it has no other option but to walk away.

Arbe in-housing Hugin D1 and Munin radars from Sensrad/Gapwaves/Qamcom to protect their investment seems all but certain. If they do? They can bring down the cost of the Hugin D1 by reducing the Tier-1 premium markup. And Gapwaves gets to continue selling their high performance imaging radar antennas without the costly expenditure to fund Sensrad's payroll.

Cartio Robotics could very well absorb the engineers left at Sensrad writing the code for Oden Eye. Their mission statement is geared exactly for that, expansion of what Oden Eye could deliver.

Theres a pretty good close up picture of the grill, with what looks like a very familiar radar fully visible.

Just a QR code visible. Will post the image below.