What year do you predict AGI and major longevity breakthroughs?
At this pace, I think AGI by the end of 2027 is realistic.
Everyone is racing like dogs. The moment Anthropic slows down, OpenAI drops a surprise. When both slow down, some Chinese lab pokes them in the ass and gets everyone running again.
Model progress that used to take 1-1.5 years now seems to happen within months.
For longevity, curing most diseases that cause early death and developing drugs that slow or stop aging, my guess is around 2030, roughly 3 years after AGI.
Some people say FDA approval would take another 10-15 years, but I doubt it. COVID showed that important treatments can be fast-tracked. And if China develops and approves a major life-extension drug first, the US won't want to sit around for a decade and hand them the entire market and credit.