u/Sawksle — reddlx

Analyzing the GPRO failed breakout.

Hello, I'm just writing this because I saw someone asking why the breakout on GPRO failed. I figured I would upload my simplified database of similar "second short squeezes", with my comments on each setup. I made them quickly in response to the thread, so they're not the most detailed, but you can pretty easily see why something like GPRO would not have worked after looking at the following setups.

GME 2nd Short Squeeze, February 2021

BNAI second Short Squeeze, February 2026

Many people offered explanations of why they think the breakout on GPRO failed. The clearest reason I can think of is that it simply wasn't moving enough. When I trade a name I heavily consider how many eyes will be drawn to it. A setup inside a 1 year range may work fine, if the ticker is called QQQ, NBIS, IREN, OKLO, QBTS, etc. This is because the setup has *so many eyes* on it that it's much more likely to work.

With a name like GPRO, everyone expects it to go bankrupt, it's not a new, innovative technology, it's barely squeezed, and it's well inside it's 1 year range. No one is watching it, it has literally zero reason to follow through. If the squeeze had taken it above the 1 year highs and was well over 500%, it would have significantly higher expected value from a breakout trader's perspective.

This is because more people would be watching it.

To put it another way; Without shorts, who in their right mind would *ever* purchase a name like gopro given its recent story, fundamentals, theme etc? It just makes absolutely no sense to expect the breakout to have follow through.

GPRO failing to put in a second leg, October 2026.

I hope the above provided some perspective, I would not have been able to go into such depth in a typical reddit comment!

u/Sawksle — 7 days ago

▲ 13 r/qullamaggie

Some SA rules I have found that extend past Kristjans.

Hello everyone. I just wanted to share some SA rules I have found that help me trade flags, and pullbacks similar to Kristjan, Martin, Pradeep, Oliver and Monis.

As you may know, trading is much more complex than internet guides suggest, so here are the rules where I tend to do best.

All rules are QQQ, but if you’re trading something like NUGT or UCO you would want to use a more relevant etf like GDX, SLV or USO.

10>20>50>100>200.
This rule is much more effective for me than a simple 10/20 rule.

Major index gap
Major index gaps tend to precede large moves. I find on day 1, to about day 5 I do well following a major gap.

Major exhaustion
I find following a major index exhaustion, long or short, I lose the most money. Markets just straight up die every time this happens. I draw a line at a round number near the high and low of a major capitulation event and I refuse to trade inside this range. These ranges are single handedly the most common reason I draw down.

Major QQQ level. I’ve found that often stocks make big moves if Nasdaq comes close to a major level. If the environment is choppy, this may happen once a week, providing a single trading opportunity for 2 days. No way does it make sense to use MAs here.

With breakouts, a lot of the job is avoiding bad environments. The 10/20 rule that most people ignore has been, in my experience, very poor by itself. As a result I use the above.

Also, if a sector is five star at the moment it will have 10>20>50>100>200
And also the volume will have the MAs stacked. If something does all of the above, you should watch it for at least a quarter for trades.

Consider silver earlier this year, KORU and SOXL too.

Hope this helps someone be more selective :)

reddit.com

u/Sawksle — 20 days ago

▲ 24 r/qullamaggie

A quick demonstration of how situational awareness works

So, i've been trading for a while and I see a lot of people struggling. Especially lately people are posting setups.

I'm on the spectrum and have a tendency to overquantify things, but one of the major changes I made while trading was to stop using static variables to read the situation.

C-C1, C-C20, C-C120 are all horrible approximations of what's actually going on in the market or to a stock.

Im going to share 8 screenshots. From these 8 screenshots you can, with very high accuracy figure out which setups are likely to work in the market.

This entire 8 stock scan is much more accurate than anything youll find quantified and it tells you:

Are breakout setups the setup you should be trading?
Are reversal setups the setup you should be trading?
Are shorts the setup you should be trading?
Are open range breaks in play?

Within the above, you can then move to asking; Which capitalization is moving? Which sector is moving? Which themes are moving?

After this, you can trade the capitalization and themes that are moving, and you re-analyse the general market context to figure out the likely duration of the move you're trading. Literally just label stocks as "bullish, or bearish". If you have like 90% of your charts looking like the start of a bullish base breakout, you have your answer about which MA's to use to trail. If things are bouncing in a downtrend, sell things after 0.5, 1, 2 or 3 days.

The willingness to look at the leaders in the market, wether they're small caps, large caps, mid caps, commodites and then form your own opinion about what the majority of them are telling is is essentially the only way to reliably build any sort of situational awareness.

Once you have situational awareness you can figure out, very easily, which setups you should trade.

This is why most professional traders go through *many* charts. Occasionally you will see some traders zoom into specific names they choose to trade to more accurately read things, but the majority of edge comes from flipping through many charts and identify what's probably going on at the moment.

From there, you take trades based on this understanding. The more that you see things happening homogeneously, the more edge you have.

The above will help people a lot. If you do it regularly, this sort of broad based understanding of what is currently happening to the segment of the market you're choosing to trade (high adr tech stocks for most of us) is like, the primary thing that will help you determine when to pass on setups, and when to hold them for long periods of time while being margined.

The thing is you wont find such an edge in a spreadsheet, and also IMO KQ alludes to this in all of his videos but he's usually very unclear. In some videos he talks about how the setup is the only thing you need to do know (see his website) and in others he talks about how you need to see groups moving.

Hopefully the above clarifies, and gives you context to what he actually means when he talks about SA. It's very important. You need to have it.

u/Sawksle — 3 months ago