I've become fixated on Gap Trades. Any advice on how to trade this set up?
I read John F. Carter's Mastering the Trade, Third Edition, and ever since seeing all the gap fills on things like ES and YM I've become hooked. Whatever the reasoning behind it, it looks like a great set up. Here's a YM example below:
These set ups apparently happen mostly on individual stocks, which isn't surprising, but Carter recommends indexes or instruments that follow indexes like ES or YM futures. The problem is all his examples from the book are twenty years old.
Now, I'm trying to find ways to confirm if we'll have a Gap and Fill or a Gap and Go, and surprisingly there's very little material that's specific to futures for this. Carter recommends using premarket volume of key stocks, which in his time were AAPL and AMZN, so it'd follow we'd look at NVDA as well today.
The problem I run into with futures is we still get pretty strong moves before the gap fills. Here's Tuesday on ES. It starts as a Gap and Go, but then fills the gap later. I got stopped out a few times expecting this to fill the gap:
You see how it has a double bottom before reversing
I know these are probability trades, but I'd still like to find ways to filter for higher quality trades, and learn how to determine if a Gap Fill or a Gap Go is more likely.
Does anyone have any experience with these trades? Thanks.
