Market untradeable
Is any bear still alive?
Every time we get a legitimate setup, the market finds a new reason to rip. Ceasefire. AI headline. Trade deal. It's Covid all over again — the market only goes up and any excuse will do.
The analyst upgrade cycle is the most transparent racket on Wall Street. Stock hits their target, they raise it, stock rips to the new target, they raise it again. Rinse and repeat. Zero fundamental justification required.
The call buyer feedback loop makes it worse. Retail piles into calls, market makers are forced to buy shares to delta hedge, price goes up, more calls get bought, more shares get bought. The tail wags the dog until it explodes.
CNBC is not financial news. It's a promotional vehicle. Nobody on that network ever says a stock is too expensive because they own it or their sponsors do. That's not analysis — that's advertising.
The macro excuses are endless:
Higher inflation? Pump — stocks are a hedge
Rate cut? Pump — cheaper money
Rate hike? Pump — means the economy is strong
War? Pump — defense spending
High oil? Pump — energy sector wins
Stocks at 15x forward earnings? Pump — it's actually cheap on a 30-year DCF
And the earnings game is the most crooked of all. Set estimates at rock bottom. Beat by a penny. Revenue grew 200% — from nothing to almost nothing. Call it a turnaround. Pump it.
High short interest? Even better. Jack the price, squeeze the shorts out, then distribute to the retail bag holders at the top.