NBA Draft Notes: Wizards, No. 2, Boozer, Steinbach, Mavericks, Bucks, Lopez - FortyEightMinutes https://fortyeightminutes.com/nba-draft-notes-wizards-intel-2nd-pick-boozer-bucks-steinbach/
Image 1 is AJs stats stacked on top of Aces. 2 is AJs assisted vs. Unassisted stats, 3 is Aces assisted vs. Unassisted.
Can we use some real process behind analyzing Ace vs. AJ besides just hopium and copium? I'm not a big AJ fan. That said, AJ has both a higher ceiling and median outcome than Ace.
What the numbers say:
AJs shot diet was far more unassisted in college. Couple this with efficiency, usage, ast/to, ast/usg, and shot diet and we learn about lot. AJ has a much cleaner and likely projection as an efficient on ball creator for both himself and teammates. He gets to the rim more, and finishes there better.
There's also no reason to project Ace as a better shooter than AJ. At best, their shot profiles are similar enough to suggest they have essentially the same shot projection. In reality AJs shot projection is a bit better than Ace.
Lets talk defense. Neither are very good. I'll concede that on the surface its easy to just say Ace projects to be better. Maybe true. I'd argue based on eye test that Ace was a just more willing defender, not necessarily a "better" one (specifically on backside rim protection).
All in all, there's little here to suggest Ace has a higher ceiling. Could he end up better? Sure, anything *could* happen. Process says no though.