u/Smurf_x

Honestly, it feels strange for me to be bored watching our wins? Am I that arrogant a fan now?

Like that can't be right can it? But this rewatch was just, "meh".

We did what we needed to do early and then kinda coasted. As was pointed out to me in the post match thread (thanks Nakorite), which I had no idea about until said comment was made, Jackson had 50% TOG in the final quarter.

So i dug a bit deeper on this

Bolton had 3 touches for the second half up until he kicked his second goal, then had a flurry late in the 4th when we coincidentally ended up having a flurry of goals ourselves.

Serong had 60% Tog in the 3rd, and 67% Tog in the 4th. He had 16 touches in the first half, that was halved to 8 in the second half.

Treacy had 9 touches in the first half, and 2 goals and finished the game with 11 touches and 2 goals.

So I don't think it was necessarily Essendon playing better after the half time break, it might seem a bit delusional and bias, but i genuinely just think we were just like 'job done, just get through unscathed'

And that kinda makes sense right? 5 day turnaround for our next game. No need to over do it.

Considering the commentary team keeps talking about how we need to rest our players and not fly them over to specific games (hilariously, the Brisbane game at the Gabba), felt strange that they wouldn't show the times players had been on the bench throughout the game.

One that we didn't feel the need to rest however was Murphy fucking Reid.

His final quarter, with 82% ToG involved 11 disposals, 1 goal and 3 score involvements. And that 3, should have been 5.

You can tell we have partially checked out when Jye and Treacy in their recent marking form are dropping these lace out kicks.

https://reddit.com/link/1tgcpew/video/tt9rjjl8nt1h1/player

Now all of the above is not to say that the effort wasn't there when it was warranted. Especially in defence.

For example, Essendon had 8 kick ins. Of those 8, 5 resulted in turnovers, 2 went out of bounds. We stopped any transition possibility there. The transition from Def. 50 to F50 was absolutely stifled once again. To understand the lines under the numbers, if its to the right youre above the AFL average, if its to the left, you're below the afl average.

https://preview.redd.it/q1d5gmbnpt1h1.png?width=804&format=png&auto=webp&s=0cccc380a9e09783f7426804330b006893f96526

And this is while we are seemingly coasting. Like statistically, that's pretty wild.

Looking at Essendons score sources as well is even more crazy. Of the stats there, 3 of the turnovers were some of the worst turnovers we've done. Clarky in the 4th, chappy in the 1st as an example. The 50m penalty against Jacko in the centre as well, and they're still below the AFL average. We managed to hold them that well defensively, while playing as i've mentioned above, just an average game for our current standards.

https://preview.redd.it/5fj2pk6dqt1h1.png?width=794&format=png&auto=webp&s=b1f571e33918a0ffe3e160a8f5ab6e27e1242f6e

We are still currently ranked number 1 defensively in the comp, and its not even really close in fact there is daylight between us and 2nd place flag contender.....checks notes....Collingwood?

https://preview.redd.it/pl9pqkacst1h1.png?width=1006&format=png&auto=webp&s=b6a5c5d24c2c4e6d2ec978c028b149645bbad5c8

In all seriousness like i said in my review for the collingwood game, they are also very good defensively, they set up really well, defend the corridor well etc etc.

However, we do it all drastically better and more consistently. Defence is quite literally winning us games.

A nice comparison of how we have matured as a group, is how much we now trust that one man near the ball to make the play we need. Rather than having bulk numbers rush to the ball carrier like Essendon do in this clip. Its the sign of a confident team. Unlike in Essendons case where you feel you need to get to the contest to help your man, and it kinda looks a bit like bees to a honeypot.

https://reddit.com/link/1tgcpew/video/d6vu4v1jvt1h1/player

Something that I really like us doing as well, as I pointed it out in my Collingwood review, especially when its wet, is the utilisation of the longer handball options. Usually it means we have way more space to receive it and make the correct decision going forward, but also just looks sexier.

https://reddit.com/link/1tgcpew/video/jiwffejlvt1h1/player

So overall, I do apologise for a somewhat lacklustre review, with not much depth to it, but there just wasn't anything super interesting about this matchup. So there isn't really a hell of a lot for me to really dig deeper on.

The commentary spoke a couple of times about Reid outrunning Merrett, so i was keen to see if this was a genuine matchup, spoiler, it wasn't. Was a few times where Reid just outworked Merrett, and a few times where Merrett outwork Reid/Brayshaw/Serong.

The last thing i can give you all to compare our efforts throughout the parts of the games is this.
Here's our first quarter tallies for a lot of the stats, we are the right side, essendon the left side.

https://preview.redd.it/7q5h9ttqwt1h1.png?width=1224&format=png&auto=webp&s=e667c8c708241e9ee8919e0a23184f8b5c448699

And then compare it to the second half

https://preview.redd.it/46cj1skwwt1h1.png?width=1221&format=png&auto=webp&s=190d8392cc29e8a3c9c5fcfe7807156507ab0ea2

9 on the trot. This is such an exciting feeling.

Onto the next at home.

Wow.

That Wharfie time goal was genuinely one of the most electric moments I've ever seen while watching footy.

I am infinitely jealous of all of you that got to see it live.
I know you've probably all seen it again by now, but fuck it, here you go again.

https://reddit.com/link/1t8v2qr/video/o23fr16qs70h1/player

First off, can we talk about Luke Jackson's game just a little bit?

Tackles:

Jackson	10
Butler	6
Moore	5
Young	5
Serong	5
Switkowski	5

Contested Possessions:

Jackson	18
Nash	15
Newcombe	14
Serong	11

Clearances:

Serong	8
Newcombe	8
Jackson	7

Add to the above, 22 touches, and an equal game high 22 hitouts.
Not to mention the big smother late in the 4th that led to a goal.

This man is willing himself when we need him to will himself. Its usually later in a game as well, he just works his way over the top of his opponent on repeat.
Between he and Bolton this year, I don't think anyone can possibly complain about any of the contracts they are on, or the capital we invested to get them across.

Now I suppose I should get into some analysis of the game.

The big thing i want to touch on with this game is our defence. I was a defender myself so i'm obviously bias towards it (hence my defensive moments highlights i do every week) but there is a reason we are rated number 1 in the comp for defence this year.

https://preview.redd.it/3sd0rxlmv70h1.jpg?width=1014&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7b02b10369eb79f01f8daee341043c196dafae94

First quarter it might have seemed like we weren't at all though, and I get it. Thing is, Gunston kicks as many goals as he does, and Hawthorn look a lot better with him playing, for good reason.

1. He plays deep. This means he has plenty of leading space in front of him. It also means that he is usually the only one in their Fwd 50. If we play the man in front, and he's on his own, usually once he's led up a little he then leads back to the space he has created over the back.
2. He is always moving. He moves and half leads before a Hawks man even has a clear disposal for him to lead to. This means he's always ahead of his man.

Why don't more forwards do this? Sounds easy! Knowing where and when to lead is a lot harder than it seems. The best players in the comp make difficult stuff seem simple, especially when you're one of the current most experienced in a specific area.

https://reddit.com/link/1t8v2qr/video/w9paxac2480h1/player

This is a defenders nightmare, especially when the ball is coming clean at pace. Wtf can you even do to defend that?

1. You get pressure up the field. You stop ball watching and ensure they don't have any easy outs. Pressuring the kick into the Fwd 50 to a leading Gunston means its not going to come in as clean...usually.
2. You have players filter back into the leading lanes quicker. Blocking up the leads means the defender isn't required to play in front of Gunston, and stops the chance of the kick over the head.

Which is exactly what we do, Good example is Clarky here, he filters back, looks to where Gunston is, off his man, but within reach still and just doesn't allow the kick to get to Gunston.

https://reddit.com/link/1t8v2qr/video/5i81z8pn080h1/player

We end up doing this on repeat. But what really halted any real Gunston impact in the second half, was the intent on holding up play before it can even get to the point of Gunston being able to lead in an open 50.

There's a reason there fans are saying stuff like this after the game:

https://preview.redd.it/ess25yo9480h1.jpg?width=654&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4dba6121e8e81feab5dce25a25625979360a77b7

We genuinely stifled any instant run they had going forward, which meant they either had to kick super wide, try and switch, or kick it long.

The best part was, our defence was so intent on stopping anything that even when they tried a switch, we covered it before the switch could even complete:

https://reddit.com/link/1t8v2qr/video/sgqtgw6m480h1/player

This graph portrays the game so well, first half they looked on. They were free a lot, hitting targets inside 50 because we were allowing them to be so open.

Then we tighten it up, inside 50's aren't hitting leads because there was none, so although they had a lot still, they were not efficient at all.

And then the 4th is where we just ran right over the top of them

https://preview.redd.it/3jdvq997580h1.jpg?width=1224&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0b671f124ee543e7c3117a2eca3b331fb68ae8b4

We have also started to employ some very very smart little things to hold up play a bit. Wags knows Amon wants to go here, he knows that he wants to go left.
So he holds him up a little bit, so that he can't just burst and go:

https://reddit.com/link/1t8v2qr/video/nr8mv2mu480h1/player

Stopping transition its legitmately our bread and butter, and its the key focal point of our defensive setups and structure.

https://preview.redd.it/l7xrqvpr680h1.jpg?width=796&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=40f9b518d372b64d1290b007c005869308e1455d

Compare that to say their recent game to Collingwood, who also have a pretty similar-ish defensive setup to us.

https://preview.redd.it/w9wbn7rz680h1.jpg?width=820&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=397c731defca3fb8145a6df7a44db64a5625d999

We stifled the hawks so much more.

This is all shows us some really good signs overall.

1. We can absolutely make changes on the fly, and adjust when required (i don't want to ever see again that JL has no plan B)
2. We are growing in maturity. In the past we would have maybe lied down and died once hawks have the period of somewhat dominance in the 3rd, and between that and Gunston doing what he was doing, the bounceback is such a good sign of mental fortitude and maturity.
3. Defence wins matches, you can argue it all you want, but its straight up the truth. Look at the bulldogs the last couple years, all firepower, no stopping power.
4. Role players are stepping up way more than they have in the past. We keep having our big stars shine, but its the role players doing little things that are really whats enabling these wins for us. A good example of this is D'Ambrosio, He is such an important link up player for the hawks, between wags, Johnno and Erasmus, they kept him to 11 effective disposals. The only other game he was so poor was against GWS in hawks season opener.

As the boys keep saying, take it one game at a time. Onto the next.

This is one where I genuinely don't really know how to start.

If you take away the umpiring howlers (I know, wtf. I'll touch on this a bit later, and trust me, I hate ragging on the umpires.....usually), its actually just a genuinely good game of football.

I think we let Bont & Ed Richards run too rampant early. Richards first quarter he had 8 disposals, 4 of them were clearances and 2 of them were inside 50s. He finished with 7 clearances and 6 inside 50's, so we definitely put a stop to it.... eventually. And Bont didn't have another 15 disposal quarter, thankfully.

What I will note is Shai seemed to do the inverse. Had a very quiet first quarter (4 Touches) and then just took over after that, 15 contested possessions and 16 Score involvements while icing the game with the sealer. He is having every bit of a Brownlow type year currently if he keeps this up. Will have a very Dustin Martin like speech if he was to win it, based off his post game interview against Carlton.

https://preview.redd.it/6vzghboz51zg1.jpg?width=1355&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=226514a7d3aedea9c2cceef46f60bfb2637d9250

The other thing the dogs planned for and executed very well was flooding their defence at all times. They knew that if they played 1 on 1 against our forwards they were cooked. I also think this is why Amiss slightly struggled based on prior weeks form, as the leading lanes were just full the majority of the time.

I've compiled some of the inside 50's that highlight this the best, but we are kicking to sometimes a 4v1, they are getting everyone to the contest against us, and just plugging holes everywhere else. Thing is, there are ways around this, we just didn't seem to want to take those options, we were quite happy kicking to those contests and letting this happen, hoping they would bring it to ground and we'd get a stoppage. For what its worth, some work, like the first one, but even then there were other options on. There just has to be other options on if there's that many getting to the contest.

https://reddit.com/link/1t35src/video/rix7k0iq71zg1/player

Breaking through this defence at times required us to use it a bit quicker, so they couldn't set up. And after we had such a play, I noticed Josh Treacy pointing to a player off screen and congratulating them for the play where he just kicked a goal. Kinda weird? Was it maybe wags great goal assist?

https://reddit.com/link/1t35src/video/6aujl535a1zg1/player

No, It was Jye Amiss. Why? This goal straight up does not occur without Jye being the dummy lead up the middle. I keep going on about how well these two play together. So heres the vision of exactly what happens. Jye knows he isn't getting this ball he turns and sees Treacy, takes buku away Treacy gets the space over the top and runs into an open goal.

These are the small things that happen all over a game that makes good teams, great. Its something so small, but without it, Treacy has to either take a contested mark or its spoiled.

https://reddit.com/link/1t35src/video/efv3v36ba1zg1/player

I've been banging on about it for a couple of weeks now, but clearly something was mentioned about it at half time, because im not sure if anyone else noticed? But our kick ins changed. We weren't going to that usual tip of the square kick in play we've been doing.

We started going a shorter kick up the middle to take it further away from our defensive 50 with the next one. This is exactly what i've been asking for.

https://reddit.com/link/1t35src/video/t9u7ths6d1zg1/player

I bang on about it, because its basically a free kick in the middle of the ground. You have possession, you should be wanting to keep it as much as possible from there.

Comparing us and Sydney is interesting to me, from a kick in.
As others have mentioned in the past, its clearly something that works for our defence if its returned, but i do like that we changed it up a bit. Doesn't get as obvious, in fact, the graphics of our kick ins looks so absurd. It should be much easier to defend.

Us:

https://preview.redd.it/5rbyoiy0d1zg1.png?width=1139&format=png&auto=webp&s=a161e760ac0ffa09f09af358542bbec8637c5631

Sydney:

https://preview.redd.it/srhpdie4d1zg1.png?width=1179&format=png&auto=webp&s=62d6df13e682fed4e3943f2f6b557e81ca11fcf1

	inside 50 from kick in	Goal Rate from kick in
Sydney	30.8%	8.7%
Fremantle	21.7%	4.8%

We had the top 4 tacklers for the game statistically, they had 5 players not register a tackle, while we had only 1, and it was a surprising player, Wagner.

We won the tackle count 78-58.

Something one of my favourite coaches use to bang on about, was that its not ALWAYS going to be your day. Serong had what we would consider a quiet game, and what the AFL Media would consider a catastrophe for him and that we should be asking Tasmania if they would take him off our hands.

So, like what my coaches use to bang on about, find other ways to impact the game. Serong did that, highest pressure acts, highest tackles.

https://preview.redd.it/o5kaofiid1zg1.jpg?width=1351&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3456e8901521dc76bd2ae5f26f77326f1620061a

And that leads me to the fucking umpiring.

I hate bringing this shit up, but when we are constantly on the backend of terrible calls, I kinda have to.

We are currently last for +/- in tackles for the comp. We don't even play a game style that really warrants it to be this way, we tackle more but get pinged holding the ball more... somehow. Some are definitely there, don't get me wrong! but the amount not paid for us this recent game is wild.

https://preview.redd.it/y2o3q02td1zg1.jpg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=10f543cf44932c74a73401f557b79f1c86164bfb

And I give you my, 'the fuck' compilation.

https://reddit.com/link/1t35src/video/nvqflsbvd1zg1/player

Good teams find ways to win. As much as i'd love to think we should have dominated the dogs based on their outs, good coaches find ways to nullify that. Bevo had a plan, and they executed it very well.

We were outgunned early, but like a good team does, we clawed it back. Think Collingwood 2023, constantly looked like they should lose.

In fact the commentary loved it when Collingwood did it! But for us, its 'no statement game yet, don't think they're quite up to it'

We are up to it, the signs are there.

The build up to this weekends game was a bit of a strange one.

We are second on the ladder, with only a 10 point loss, round 1 against the Cats at their home in Geelong, after they have had a weeks head start to the season.

We had put away 3 teams, narrowly beaten 2, and had our usual shit show against West Coast, as they decide it be one of their 5 games for the year that they show up.

And from that position, our form and everything else we get this absolute crock of shit call
Now, I know Cornes is just a shit take merchant, but the reason i bring this up is he hasn't been the only one to say something along these lines.

Calls during the broadcast last week that "Andy wasn't doing enough", "is on the outer" or "not touching the ball enough" - Just Ludicrous shit. And the thing that annoys me most, is its these big talking heads in the AFL Media who are spouting this shit with basic stats to back them up, without ever looking at the bigger picture.

It was the same with my Defence of Jye Amiss. Not everyone in the team can get 30 touches, or kick 3 goals a game. Its just not possible, and with the talent we have within our team, anyone can bob up and do it. We aren't ever relying on 1 player anymore, and that's A VERY GOOD THING.

So with that, Andy had a better 'disposal' game on the weekend regardless, but lets take a bit of a squiz at something here, Pressure acts and Tackles, He's in a world of his own.

https://preview.redd.it/rhh0wkf23nxg1.jpg?width=1251&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=19160dec73e8aaff25f4f64bd5cdfd18cfc95df5

The thing that annoyed me the most, was that Brayshaw was being attacked more than most 2 way players ever really have. We hear absolutely nothing but praise for players like Dunkley, Atkins & Rowbottom. And yes, Andy may have once upon a time been that high disposal guy, but he just doesn't need to be that anymore and he's taken this new role in his steed and is absolutely nailing it. Comparison to the league below:

https://preview.redd.it/siqpzq7q4nxg1.jpg?width=1249&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0b79382f407b11dc0224ec3ad38fcbc5c9e6c0b8

When we are throwing through extra players into the Centre contests, we aren't requiring Andy to do as much. Having depth in the middle is a good thing, and I think thats why Gold Coast suns are faltering a little bit, see their recent CBAs here.

We had our biggest even spread for the year in the current game, but it wasn't something new, its been a trend.

https://preview.redd.it/vg0wms4m4nxg1.jpg?width=514&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c4a95a4436ca9d507b0899cccfaa58dc66fe44a2

Changing Directions

With that bit of a rant out of the way, one thing that seemed apparent this game was our increased willingness to take a risky kick into the middle.

Clearly something we were working on throughout the week, and implemented on the weekend.

When our handball recieve (running by to get a handball) numbers are high we play well and look much better.
Just a quick comparison on this, top 4 for the Carlton game vs top 4 for the West Coast Game (only our players)

Carlton Game	Total Handball Receives
Shai Bolton	17
Corey Wagner	15
Jordan Clark	13
Andrew Brayshaw	13
West Coast Game
Murphy Reid	12
Corey Wagner	11
Heath Chapman	9
Jordan Clark	9

The clips below show multiple times where we looked straight to the middle and just went, rather than doubt ourselves. Now, they didn't actually instantly come off a lot of the time, but we were clearly prepared for it, got numbers to it and away we were off! Changing direction is fairly football 101 stuff.
Moves a set defence and makes it much harder to defend, im glad we are working on it.

https://reddit.com/link/1swset1/video/ca83sujv9nxg1/player

Disorganised defence?

Was pointed out by a few, and noticed by myself that at times the defence seemed a bit in all sorts or lackluster?

I've noticed that we play a somewhat zone defence. What i mean by this, is we rely a lot on somewhat looser players to cover a lot more ground and impact contests. We mostly play a one on one on rebounds, but when there's some times to slightly setup we get a lot of numbers to a contest to impact.

(Wheelo ratings stats to create the tables below)

Team	Def 1v1 Average per game
Adelaide	15.4
GWS	14.0
Richmond	13.0
St Kilda	12.1
Collingwood	12.1
Geelong	12.0
Port Adelaide	11.3
Sydney	11.1
West Coast	10.7
Hawthorn	10.4
Brisbane	10.1
Carlton	9.4
Melbourne	9.3
Gold Coast	9.3
Western Bulldogs	8.7
North Melbourne	8.3
Fremantle	8.0
Essendon	7.9

So we have way less 1v1's per game than a lot of teams. Because we are getting across to help as much as possible.

"Yeah, okay smurf, but thats showing Essendon being good in that category too right?"
Well, kinda where we then excel is that if we are 1v1, we just aren't letting the opposition win that 1v1 anyway.

See below

Team	Defensive 1on1 loss percentage
Essendon	38.2
North Melbourne	31.0
Richmond	30.8
Melbourne	30.8
Port Adelaide	29.1
Brisbane	28.2
GWS	27.6
St Kilda	27.1
Sydney	26.9
Western Bulldogs	26.2
West Coast	25.3
Adelaide	25.0
Collingwood	24.7
Hawthorn	21.9
Geelong	16.7
Carlton	15.2
Fremantle	12.5
Gold Coast	12.3

Statistically, we have the toughest defence in the league. (there's actually way too many graphs i can make to back up this claim via some wheelo stats, like we are 4th for spoils, 3rd for opposition meters gained, as in we've restricted oppo meters gained third best of any team i could go on and on, our defence is REALLY good)

And even then, that defence falters on occasion whether through miscommunication, or brain fades. I found a good example of one where Jordan Clark should have just gone, its like he's waiting for Ryan to bring it to ground. Its either Ryan not telling Clark to go, or Clark just not hearing or just straight up ball watching. The next clip is Clark making sure he gets across to impact. He turns, looks at Moose, and just goes and impacts. I know for a fact he was making sure he did something as he let the team down letting Walsh take that mark uncontested.

https://reddit.com/link/1swset1/video/kvth802linxg1/player

In contrast to that, i want to show this example of the defence working perfectly on a switch, and why we like to go up and stand the mark as it forced the opposition to back up off it and not be able to go quickly.

https://reddit.com/link/1swset1/video/xr0m7hsolnxg1/player

Kick ins

I bought it up last week, just want to mention it again, as I wanted to point out the examples i'm referring to when I say I want us using the middle rather than going long to that contest we setup for. Chappy has a paddock here. If Cox cannot hit that kick, I don't want him taking kick ins.

https://preview.redd.it/as9ztboojnxg1.jpg?width=1919&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6685e48cc8335229982c85e62d04175197d07d2d

Jackson Dominant.

Look, Im a staunch believer in us being a better team when we have Darcy sharing Ruck duties with Jackson.

However, Jackson was that good on the weekend that games like this (its not going to happen every game) maybe show me what some people are arguing. He has games like this and people forget the games he needs the help or he's knackered.

There's a reason we didn't play Reidy past that one Geelong game last year. And there was a reason Reidy was dropped after the one game he shared ruck with Pittonet. He's just not QUITE to AFL standard. He does have good moments, but lets be honest, Jackson absolutely blitzed him.

To the point that it was the best game Jackson has had hit-out to advantage wise. 45% of his hit-outs were to advantage. Weirdly though, Reidy had 54.5% of his hit-outs to advantage, and Cox 37.5% to advantage. Felt like a game that if you won the tap, it was going where it needed to go. And i felt as though Jackson was just emphatic with his taps.

https://reddit.com/link/1swset1/video/d5kbr53yknxg1/player

We were winning it that emphatically that the oppo employed the usual, 'Sharking' method of winning clearances. And I'm not a huge fan of Cripps, but he does it VERY well (he had the most clearances for the game).

This was his best one, but was something that the team needs to be aware of happening, as its why we win the hit-outs majority of the time, but not hit-outs to advantage because some of the oppositions best players just does this too easily. Wrestles front position, gets to drop zone, and they're off.

https://reddit.com/link/1swset1/video/6x0t73tglnxg1/player

All in all, aside from a few 5 minute patches of shit, and some of the worst umpiring decisions ive ever seen, I'm happy with the win.

It looks like we are working on stuff every week, trying new things, working with our advantages, and we are second on the ladder because of it.

Tough 2 weeks coming up, I'm surprisingly keen for the test. Lets get the Ws.