u/SnapComplete

The full contents and values are up on https://snapcomplete.com/save/bundles

The paid tiers don't look like good deals to me and I don't recommend them. But make sure to grab the free currency!

The Golden Gauntlet Worlds Qualifier 3 starts Saturday morning PT, and every registered deck is now browsable on SnapComplete. 1,274 players registered, 891 submitted a list.

-97% of the field brought a one-of-a-kind list (811 of the 838 decks).

-The most popular list has 12 players on it (Aurora-ThanosFF-Wong).

-Thanos Fractured Frontier is the most-played card at 39%, Cosmo second at 32%. No other card is over 20%.

-47% of the field is running at least one Fractured Frontier card.

HOW EXPENSIVE ARE THESE DECKS?

Counting only Series 4 and Series 5 token values, the median deck here costs 33,000 tokens. 38% of every card slot in the tournament is a Series 5 card.

Token cost (S4/S5 cards)	Decks	% of field
0 (pure Series 1-3)	27	3.2%
3,000 - 12,000	118	14%
15,000 - 24,000	150	18%
27,000 - 36,000	219	26%
39,000 - 48,000	217	26%
51,000+	107	13%

SEE THE DECKS

Most common lists: https://i.imgur.com/s8oZLxT.png

View them all here: https://snapcomplete.com/play/decks/golden-gauntlet

-Sort by # of players, battle winrate, battles played, deck cost, or final standings

-Filter by specific cards (has or missing) or search

-Tap the player names on any deck to see each player's W-L

-Tap the Season Stats link to view global stats tracked for that list this season.

-Copy button grabs the deck code if you want to try a list yourself

-Event picker swaps between Worlds Q3 and Worlds Q2.

SEE THE META

Most common cards across all decks: https://i.imgur.com/YNRcNUx.png

View it here: https://snapcomplete.com/play/meta/golden-gauntlet

-Sort by # of decks or battle winrate

-Filter by energy cost or ability, or search for a card

-Tap any card to see every Gauntlet deck that includes it

And here are the 14 misfits, the cards that didn't make it into a single deck: https://i.imgur.com/qXMpap0.png

Good luck to everyone playing this weekend!

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The shots fire in a set order, and the overlay lays them out left to right: Space (blue), Reality (red), Time (green), Mind (yellow), Power (purple), Soul (orange).

On the second screen live view you can click a shot to see what it does:

https://imgur.com/a/pvC1EQz

Both are free for everyone through Friday's reset (12pm PT), so try them out while they're open! After that the overlay and the live companion are part of SnapComplete premium (Desktop, Android, iOS): https://snapcomplete.com/play/matches/overlay

SnapComplete has logged every vault shown to our tracked players since late February: over 58,000 individual vault openings across 12 vault runs, 9 skewed and 3 balanced, about 350,000 variants shown and roughly 1,350 purchases, about 0.4% overall. The question: does skewing a vault toward specific variants actually sell more?

Every conversion number below is the same thing: out of the times a vault put a variant in front of a tracked player, how often they bought it in the following two days. Caveat - this is what SnapComplete users did, not the whole playerbase.

The skew is real, and it's big.

https://i.imgur.com/0PQDh00.png

In a balanced vault, no variant reaches 4.5% of players. In a skewed one, the top variant lands in 23% to 35% of them. And before anyone asks: yes, i've corrected for the fact that the vault doesn't show you variants you already own.

The favorites almost never change.

https://i.imgur.com/tYIlNjl.png

Eleven variants have been pushed in all nine skewed vaults tracked. About two dozen have been pushed at all, and not one of them got that treatment in a single vault only. Whatever list Second Dinner is running from, it's the same list, reused, and it takes up about half of every skewed vault.

And as far as I can tell - it's not working. The median vault variant sells 0.22% of the times it's shown. Seventeen of them sell at or below that median. Exactly one sells at more than double it, and it's Galactus (Knullified), at nearly 3.5%, who on his own is about 1 in 6 of every vault purchase I've logged.

What actually sells

https://i.imgur.com/Jd8LxOd.png

Meanwhile, nine of the ten best-selling variants in the whole dataset have never been pushed at all. The chart above is those ten. Second Dinner is spending about half of every skewed vault on a list that mostly undersells the pool, while the things people actually buy sit in the same vaults getting no push at all.

What I'd do in their shoes.

Second Dinner has clearly decided the vault should have a thumb on the scale, three out of every four are skewed. That's their call to make. So say I'm them, the skewing is a given, and it's my job to make it sell. Here's how I'd aim it:

1. Push a variant the first time it ever enters the rotation, since that slot is worth about ten times a repeat.

2. Run balanced vaults more often.

3. Aim skewed vaults at whatever sold in balanced vaults, rather than at this seemingly static list they picked long ago.

4. When a player turns something down two or three times running, stop showing it to them for a while, regardless of how well it sells to everyone else.

How would you improve the vault?

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Full history of every vault I've tracked, including what was in each one, is up at https://snapcomplete.com/schedule/vaults. There's another one landing today, and I don't know yet which kind it'll be. Sign up and sync and we can find out together. The last 5 have been skewed.

The Japanese playerbase just regained webshop access, which felt like a good reminder to check the active codes.

Here's a tool I built that has every working Marvel Snap code in one spot. It's re-checked against the webshop every few hours so dead ones drop off on their own.

Sync your collection and it auto-checks the codes you already redeemed, so you can see what you still need instead of wasting time pasting in codes you aren't sure if you've used before or not. The one caveat: it can only auto-check codes that give a specific cosmetic, so the credits, boosters, and mystery ones are on the page for you to mark off yourself (and they stay checked for your account forever).

https://snapcomplete.com/tools/codes

Ran the numbers on Team Clash from 174k+ tracked matches, and my takeaway is SD has done a really good job balancing this mode. The full team matchup matrix spread is 44% to 56%. Nothing like the blowout matchups Grand Arena had. This is especially good since if you have my luck, you're playing 4+ different teams every 16 hours to complete your missions. If I could make one nit, it's that X-Men is still the strongest team, and I'd like to see it get a slight nerf since it was the best team last run as well.

Full matchup matrix

Most of the lists are getting carried by cards outside the 6 team-exclusive ones though. The best Guardians decks are running Empower stuff, Brotherhood is propped up by TOV, and the Wong + Lady B combo in the X-Men's best deck is as strong as ever. Really surprised that she wasn't banned considering she was the single highest WR% card last run, and that's still the case this run.

Precons

Some of the top decks per faction

Win % when drawn, amongst team cards

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^(full stats from https://snapcomplete.com/play/decks/team-clash, free match tracking works on any device including iOS)

This season is so packed (4 LTGMs!) that SD is compensating by injecting additional cubes into everyone's climb through the Hyper Cube Rush event later this month.

I figured I'd chip in too: through Thursday's reset, the SnapComplete match overlay (normally premium) is free for everyone.

The overlay is a picture-in-picture that runs in your browser and floats over your game. It predicts your opponent's likely deck (or tracks your own if you prefer), shows their CL and SP, and flags whether they're a bot.

And if you want a full second screen, there's a live companion page.

snapcomplete.com

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^(^Posted ^with ^mod ^approval, ^thanks ^u/True_Lab2703.)

Quick follow-up to my post from earlier this week. Hulk was running Grand Arena at a 61% win rate, the best and most-played deck in the field. The mid-run OTA plucked away all its tech cards and flipped the board. The meta has basically settled since then, so I re-ran the 21x21 matrix on ~120k games since the patch. New answer below.

Deck	Win %	Play %
Thor	55.3	6.9
Doctor Doom	54.7	13.6
HERBIE	54.4	2.8
Iron Man	54.0	8.0
Hulk	52.6	11.4
Mole Man	51.0	3.9
Black Panther	50.7	8.0
Captain America	48.9	3.6
Ghost-Spider	48.4	8.7
Human Torch	47.9	4.8
Mister Fantastic	47.5	2.5
Invisible Woman	46.1	1.7
Thing	45.9	2.8
Sentinel	45.4	2.7
Carnage	45.3	4.3
Thanos	45.1	4.0
Weapon X	44.4	4.7
Magneto	42.7	1.4
Annihilus	41.6	1.2
Rocket	39.8	1.0
Ghostrider	36.1	2.0

Seven decks beat the field, and the top four (Thor, Doctor Doom, HERBIE, Iron Man) are the clear winners. HERBIE is the one that stands out: a top-four win rate on under 3% of the field. Ghost-Spider is the opposite, third most-played yet sitting underwater. And Hulk isn't dead, just dethroned.

With about a day left, if you're grinding your leftover tickets for cosmetics and aren't sick of the mode yet, anything above 50% is a safe pick and the top four are the strongest.

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Full 21x21 matchup matrix (post-OTA)

https://imgur.com/a/rrB40jn

Win % shift matchup matrix (pre-OTA vs post-OTA)

https://i.imgur.com/0lPd6to.png

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Live deck stats at SnapComplete

Hulk is both the best and the most-played deck right now: 60% win rate, top play count. With 5+ days left the field keeps tilting toward it, so the more interesting question isn't "what's best," it's: what beats Hulk and still does well into the rest of the field? I built the full 21x21 matchup matrix from 110k+ tracked games and "solved" it.

So what beats Hulk?

So far, it's Mole Man. 55% into Hulk, 53% overall. One of only two decks that beat Hulk head-to-head (Thor is the other at 52%), and the 53% overall means it isn't just a Hulk counter, it stays above 50% against the rest of the field too.

The trap is chasing the leaderboard, because the 2nd and 3rd best decks overall fold to Hulk specifically. Doctor Doom is 58% overall but only 45% into Hulk. Iron Man is 50% overall but only 36% into Hulk. So as the field tilts to Hulk, their real win rates sink with it. Mole Man is the opposite, it gets better as Hulk gets more popular.

The game theory bit

Because the deck pool is fixed, this is basically a 21-dimensional rock-paper-scissors and is solvable with Nash equilibrium (game theory stuff). The math even sequences it for you: you don't pick up Mole Man until enough of the field is on Hulk, then Mole Man over-saturates, its own counter spikes, and the best answer shifts again. Eventually the field collapses to 4-5 survivors: Hulk, Thor, Doctor Doom, Mole Man, and Thing.

It's already happening

Over the last 6 hours vs the event average, Hulk has climbed from 24% to 29% of the field and Mole Man (the counter) from 3.8% to 5.2%, while the decks that fold to Hulk bleed out fastest: Iron Man 6.5% down to 4.4%, Ghost-Spider 6.9% down to 4.3%. Hulk swells, its counter rises to meet it, the decks that lose to Hulk go first. Exactly what the matrix called.

It won't actually get there, though. People don't play optimally, and SD already said they're "looking at some mid-run updates," so tomorrow's OTA should at least shake things up.

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Full 21x21 matchup matrix

https://imgur.com/a/36jDEnE

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Live deck stats at SnapComplete