The aviation industry and net-zero
To add a bit of context around some of the statements about aviation in the recent episode, particularly that solutions will be available in 15 years or so, allow me to outline what is actually happening in the industry.
The UK's biggest contributions to aviation in terms of manufacturing exports are wings (Airbus/GKN in Bristol and Broughton), and engines (Rolls Royce in Derby). UK industrial policy has generally been to support both systems with research funding under the Aerospace Technology Institute (ATI). Currently both companies take the bulk of the funding, and critically, RR are sucking up huge proportions of it for their new Ultrafan engine.
RR currently supplies the long-haul market but not the short-haul; Ultrafan is their bet to re-enter that market, and the UKs investment gamble to restore a lot of lost manufacturing jobs in the region (short-haul is 80% of flights).
These developments in engines and wings are being aimed at the next clean-sheet design of short-haul aircraft (known as Next Generation Single Aisle), which are expected to be launched by Boeing and Airbus around 2030, and come into service later that decade. Airbus have suggested that manufacture of this new platform could hit 100/month globally, which is about double the current rate.
In short; it's huge business. The aircraft will be in production until the 2070s, and will shape the future of air travel.
The problem is, none of this matches the climate change politics being discussed. Electrification can't support anything bigger than inter-city travel. Airbus flirted with hydrogen for short-haul for a while, but gave it up for NGSA when it became clear that even if the technology could be ready in time, a global rollout of the supporting infrastructure would not be.
Currently short-haul makes up about four fifths of flights, but long-haul makes up two thirds of emissions, and there is no green alternative available for long-haul flights.
The preferred way forward for the industry is sustainable variant of jet fuel (SAF). This is either made from recycled oil products or electrically produced, and is fully interchangeable with regular jet fuel, requiring no new aircraft or infrastructure at airports. It's also much more expensive. The argument is, however, if you can make fuel from CO2 electrically recovered from the atmosphere, you can burn it while remaining net-zero. The other focus of the industry is on some more unusual aircraft wings which provide fuel burn reductions to the aircraft.
The effect of Hormuz is having an immediate effect on the industry however; there are rumours of cash-flow issues at Airbus as airlines defer airframe deliveries in case they run out of jet fuel to run them.
It remains to be seen if the new political reality around jet fuel supply actually changes what airlines are looking for on a new product.