How I evaluate whether a ranch or farmland deal actually pencils out Agricultural real estate gets overlooked by most investors because the analysis is different — you're modeling cow-calf operations, hay yields, hunting leases, and FSA debt structures instead of cap rates and rent rolls. The framew
- Build a 10-year proforma with all revenue streams (livestock, hay, hunting, agritourism)
- Stack the financing (FSA Ownership + Operating + seller carry if possible)
- Calculate DSCR for every year — target 1.0x at Year 1, 1.25x by Year 3
- Run offer sensitivity — what does DSCR look like at 75%, 80%, 85% of ask?
- The offer is the price where Year 1 DSCR ≥ 1.0 and you have a clear path to 1.25x
I turned this into an Excel template after doing it manually for 8+ properties. Selling it at [link] if anyone wants to run their own numbers.
u/Strong-Ad-9922 — 7 days ago