u/Swim-hole

Looking at some of the contracts being signed yesterday I am happy with Colorado's management not panicking and overpaying. Management was able to lockup/trade players during before trade deadline and get value on contracts. Just look at some of the overpays:

Defense

Byram - 12.5m Cap hit

Carlson - 8.5m Cap hit

Trouba - 8.25m Cap hit

While Avs were able to lock in Kulak and Burns for less then 5.5M

Forwards

Dorofeyev - 11m Cap hit (.78 P/G)

Jenner - 5.75m Cap hit (0.56 P/G)

Lee - 5.4m Cap hit (.52 P/G)

Hayton 4.78m Cap hit (.37P/g)

Greer - 4.25M Cap hit (.41 P/G)

Compare this to Avs signings last season

Kadri - 5.6M Cap hit (.67 P/G)

Nelson - 7.5M Cap hit (.80 P/G)

Necas - 11.5M Cap hit (1.28 P/G)

Roy - 3M Cap hit (.33 P/G)

Shwartz - 3.25M Cap hit (.52P/G)

Overpays in free agency will get worse each year with Cap rising and other teams locking up UFA/RFAs before they come available. Avs need to keep on focusing on trade deadline deals and leveraging future assets while Mack and Makar are still in their prime.

Carolina's been averaging 4 goals a game throughout the series against Vegas's trap. Something that the Av's can't get around, whether it is Seattle, Dallas or Vegas implementing it.

Carolina has been exposing the trap each game by dumping the puck in and winning races to the puck and driving to the net. 90% of their goals by either winning dump in races and tossing pucks to the net or on lower danger shots from the D with screens/rebounds

Looking at Game 3
Goal 1 - Dump in at red line - beat defender to the puck and toss it out front for trailing forward

Goal 2 - Dump in at blue line - beat defender to the corner and blind pass out front for the trailing guy

When Carolina has Ozone possession the push it back to the D for a low danger shot and and have at least 1 body out front (normally 2) for a screen and a winger driving to the net for any loose rebounds.

Goal 3 & Goal 4 were both low danger shots with multiple bodies out front.

The Avs are the most aggressive transition team in the league however this doesn't work and won't win any more cups during this window. To many teams implement the trap in the playoffs. The Avs need to have multiple offensive strategies and not just rely on their transition game.

Avs rely to much on the D man joining the rush and attacking as a full unit. The neutral zone trap completely deflates this tactic and causes way to many odd many rushes the other way when the play is broken up and D is out of place. The Avs tried to change play style to dump and chase in game 4 but it was obvious they the team as a whole lacked experience with this playstyle.

Management does not need to make any major changes to the team before the next playoff run. The Avs have the pieces to be a great dump and chase team when facing teams that play the Trap.

The Avs have the pieces:

-One of the fastest forward cores to win puck battles on dump ins

-Multiple big bodies for screens (Val, Roy and Nelson)

-Some of the best players out front of the net (Landy, Lehky)

-Most accurate shooting defensemen (Cale, Malinski, Toews)

You can argue that the Avs are built for a similar play style as Carolina and the only thing holding them back is transitioning their playstyle. A full year of practice next season can easily get them over the hump for next years playoff run.

Need to stop with the doom and gloom in this subreddit.

Even if Mack and Nichushkin are both out tonight our lineup is pretty evenly matched. That just shows how deep our team is.

VGK has 6 - 50+ point pace players this season

VGK has 7 - 30+ point pace players this season

Col has 5 - 50+ point pace players this season excluding Mack and Val

Col has 9 - 30+ point pace players this season exclude Mack and Val

It is time for our third and fourth lines to step up. Avs need to forecheck, hit everything and pile the front of the net.

We loaded up on Center depth for a reason before this playoff run.

Start Blackwood and show him that we have confidence in him as he is our future goalies signed to 29/30. If he has a great game then who knows maybe he carries this game into the rest of the series. If he has a bad game then so be it.

Hopefully Avs make this series interesting, if they take one away then who knows they might be able to force a game 6 after another win at home.

Looking to compare each team's production over the first 2 series based on TOI as a lines.

VGK: X Goals 60 X Goals Against 60

Barbashev-Eichel-Dorofeyev - 3.21 1.89

Howden-Karlsson-Marner - 3.24 2.85

Saad-Hertl-Sissons - 4.55 2.9

Smith-Dowd-Kolesar - 2.71 3.07

Hanifin - Andersson - 1.88 2.66

Theodore - Mcnabb - 2.87 2.34

Hutton - Korczak - 2.07 3.52

AVS:

Landy - Mack - Necas - 4.39 1.46 (Bednar needs to keep this line together)

Kelly - Nelson - Nichushkin - 3.23 2.06

Colton - Kardi - Roy 2.86 2.34

Kelly - Drury - O Conner - 2.50 1.43

Toews - Makar 3.37 1.81

Kulak - Malinski 1.1 1.66

Burns - Manson 3.08 2.7

Reviewing lineups I think this series is going to come down to 1) Depth and 2)D Core.

Vegas has 3 strong lines however their fourth line is a liability even in reduced minutes. Avs 4th line should be able to force turnovers and generate some good scoring opportunities like they have done all playoffs. Vegas also has some holes on defense with their 1st pair underperforming while eating lots of minutes and their 3rd pair being a liability that can be exposed.

Avs need to stay out of the box and not give into VGK's play.

VGK is capitalizing on the PP trying to generate more PP opportunities while shutting down opponents on the PK.

VGK PK - 67 Minutes and only a -1 Goal differential

VGK PP - 58 Minutes and a 9 Goal Differential