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I’ve done well with Cisco this year, and with earnings coming Wednesday, I’m not changing my plan or adding.

I got in a few months before the last earnings report, when the stock was still being treated much differently than it is today. Since then, Cisco has taken off. The AI story got bigger, networking demand came in stronger than expected, and the market finally started giving the company credit for it.

Now the stock is sitting above $120 after a huge run.

That obviously makes me more careful here. I wouldn’t tell someone who missed the move to jump in two days before earnings and expect the same setup we had last quarter. That opportunity has already passed. Is there some upside potential here? Yes, if they have a huge beat. Meet or exceeding a bit is already priced in.

But selling is a different conversation.

Cisco raised its expected FY26 hyperscaler AI infrastructure orders from $5 billion to roughly $9 billion after the last report. That was a massive jump and a big reason the stock took another leg higher.

Now we get to find out how much of that momentum carried through the end of the fiscal year.

Wall Street is looking for around $16.8 billion in quarterly revenue and $1.17 in EPS Wednesday.

Could Cisco beat those numbers and still drop? Of course.

At this price, I wouldn’t be surprised by anything after hours. A lot of money has already been made here, and there will be people looking for an excuse to lock some of it in.

That doesn’t bother me enough to sell beforehand.

I bought Cisco for the long haul, and so far the reason for owning it has gotten stronger, not weaker. AI infrastructure is bringing serious money into a business that was already producing billions in cash and had an enormous installed base.

So I’m keeping this one pretty simple.

If I didn’t own Cisco already, I’d probably wait until after earnings before making a move.

But I do own it. I got in before the last report. I have room to absorb some volatility, and I’m not giving up my position trying to guess what the stock does for 20 minutes Wednesday afternoon.

We’ll see what Cisco gives us Wednesday.

Nebius reports earnings Wednesday, August 12 before open, and I’m still bullish on the bigger $NBIS story, but this is one where expectations matter just as much as the actual numbers.

Wall Street is looking for roughly $535 million in Q2 revenue, which would represent about 409% year-over-year growth. The current EPS estimate is around a $0.67 loss per share. Those are already aggressive growth numbers.

For perspective, Nebius generated roughly $399 million in Q1 revenue. So hitting $535 million would mean another 34% sequential jump in just one quarter.

But I don’t think EPS is what makes or breaks this report.

The number I’m watching closely is ARR and forward guidance. Management previously said it remains on track for $3.0–$3.4 billion in 2026 revenue and $7–$9 billion in ARR by year-end.

That’s where expectations get serious.

If NBIS comes in around $535 million but maintains that $7–$9 billion ARR target, I’m comfortable continuing to hold. If revenue pushes toward $575–$600 million+ and management sounds increasingly confident about those targets, I think the bull case gets considerably stronger.

A raise to guidance, faster capacity deployment or another major customer announcement could be the real catalyst.

At the same time, I’m not ignoring the risk. Nebius is spending enormous amounts of money building AI infrastructure, and the market is giving the company a valuation that assumes a lot of that capacity turns into revenue. They recently raised another $775 million in secured debt financing to accelerate the global buildout.

That makes this a bullish but cautious hold for me heading into Wednesday. I might be looking for another entry window should this push lower.

I’m not trying to predict a one-day earnings move. I’m looking for confirmation that the growth story remains intact.

$535M = expectations. $575M+ = strong. $600M+ with strong guidance = potentially a monster report.

But above everything else, I’ll be listening for what management says about ARR, utilization, capacity, major customers and the path into 2027.

Palantir did everything right. Numbers came in strong, guidance was raised, and Alex Karp stayed fully focused on facts and the long-term mission. No fluff, no distractions, just execution. That's exactly what the market wanted to see.

The stock moved up on the news, and rightfully so. The business continues to grow, commercial demand is accelerating, and their position in both government and enterprise is only getting stronger.

That said, with everything going on in the market, will it stay here in the short term probably not.

We still have inflation data, Fed decisions, geopolitical headlines, and overall market sentiment that can flip the tape quickly.

This market has been a rollercoaster, and we're not out of the woods yet.

Short term, we can trade the swings and ride the momentum. Long term, nothing really changed. Palantir is building, executing, and the long-term outlook is still very much intact.

Stay nimble, manage risk, and keep the bigger picture in mind.

Good beat. Good company. Stay ready.

Palantir reports earnings after the close today, and I think this setup is a lot more balanced than both the bulls and bears are making it out to be.

The business continues to execute at a high level. Wall Street is expecting around $1.8 billion in revenue, commercial demand remains strong, and government contracts continue to fuel growth. If the company delivers another quarter of roughly 80% government revenue growth, strong commercial momentum, and raises guidance, there’s a solid case for the stock to move higher.

But we’ve seen this story before.

Last quarter, Palantir delivered another strong earnings beat, the stock shot up then immediately sold off. The numbers weren’t the problem. Expectations were high, and the conference call left investors with more questions than confidence.

This time, the setup is a little different. The stock has pulled back significantly from its highs, so a lot of the hype has already come out. That gives Palantir a better chance to reward investors if it delivers another strong quarter with stock being down from its highs.

For me, though, the biggest wildcard is still Alex Karp.

Whether you agree with him or not, his conference calls matter. Last quarter, I felt the focus shifted away from the company’s strong execution. Instead of letting the results speak for themselves, the conversation became more philosophical and, at times, came across as overly confident. There were also comments aimed at competitors like OpenAI and Anthropic, along with suggestions that much of the AI industry depends on Palantir’s technology. Regardless of whether you agree with those views, I don’t think that’s what investors wanted to hear.

Wall Street usually responds better to clear execution than bold statements. Investors want to hear about customer growth, AI demand, new contracts, margins, and guidance. If tonight’s call stays focused on those areas, I think the stock has a real opportunity to recover and if Alex keeps his mouth closed and focuses on the results. But if the conversation drifts back toward the same style as last quarter, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the stock struggle again, even if the earnings beat expectations.

I’m slightly bearish heading into tonight, but not because I think the business is weak. Quite the opposite—I think Palantir is one of the strongest companies in AI. My hesitation is more about expectations and how management communicates with investors. At this point, the conference call may be just as important as the numbers themselves.

The earnings will make the headlines. What Alex Karp says afterward could decide where the stock trades tomorrow.

Note (Just Added): I will say being down 30%-40% from its highs the risk is a little less than last quarter with some upside potential. If Alex focuses on the earnings and shuts his mouth about others - he needs to stay in his lane and focus on PLTR.

A couple of weeks ago I mentioned that this market was likely entering a rollercoaster phase, and that’s exactly what we’ve seen.

Just 3–4 days ago, AI, semiconductor, and other high-growth stocks were getting hammered even further. Fear continued to take over, many investors panicked, and quality companies were sold off right alongside weaker names.

Now many of those same stocks continue to bounce back in the short-term. This is the rollercoaster phase.

This is why I keep saying short-term traders need to stay patient. When fundamentally strong companies get hit hard in a broad selloff buy the dip, those sharp dips can create opportunities. Buy the panic, take profits into the rebound, and be ready to do it again because this type of volatility isn’t disappearing anytime soon.

For long-term investors, these swings are just noise buy the dip- keep investing for the long haul. But for active long-term traders, the market continues to reward patience and discipline when buying these dips more than chasing stocks after they’ve already run.

SpaceX has one of the biggest weeks in its history coming up, and short sellers are making a massive bet against it.

According to S3 Partners, short interest has climbed to 219.3 million shares, or roughly 34% of the public float, representing about $24.6 billion in bearish positions. That’s reportedly even larger than the current dollar va of short bets against Tesla.

The next few days could decide who’s right.

SpaceX reports its first earnings as a public company on August 4, giving investors their first real look at revenue, margins, and future guidance. Then, on August 6, up to 911.5 million shares could become eligible for sale as the IPO lock-up expires, creating the potential for significant volatility.

If earnings disappoint or insiders sell aggressively after the lock-up, the shorts could be rewarded. But if SpaceX posts strong numbers and management delivers an optimistic outlook, the stock could move sharply higher, putting pressure on one of the largest short positions currently in the market but given the unlock this looks to stay volatile.

*There is a chance we can see sub $100 soon. I do believe this company will be worth $250+ a share in the future. Find a good entry point at the bottom and hold long.

Either way, next week is shaping up to be one of the most important tests yet for SpaceX as a public company. It’s definitely one to watch.

Jersey Mike’s has built a strong business, but the IPO leaves me with more questions than excitement.

The biggest concern is where the money is going. Around 68% of the shares being sold are coming from existing shareholders, including Blackstone and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. That means a large chunk of the cash raised isn’t going into the company—it’s going to investors who are cashing out part of their stake.

Jersey Mike’s will receive only a smaller portion of the proceeds, with much of that expected to go toward paying down debt instead of expanding the business. If I’m buying into a new public company, I’d rather see more of the money being used to fuel future growth.

It also makes you wonder about the valuation. If sophisticated investors are willing to sell hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of stock at this price, why should public investors be rushing to buy it? That doesn’t mean the company isn’t solid, but it does suggest the IPO may be priced to benefit the sellers first.

Jersey Mike’s could still become a successful public company over the long run. But when insiders are taking a large payday on day one while public investors are funding that exit, I’d rather stay on the sidelines and see how the stock trades once the IPO excitement wears off. Sometimes the best opportunities come after the hype, not during it.

After a tough couple of weeks, stocks finally caught a break. The rebound was not because inflation is changing or because the Federal Reserve changed its stance. Rates are still expected to stay higher for longer, and the market knows that. Instead, investors stepped back in after a sharp selloff, with many seeing an opportunity to buy quality companies at lower prices.

If you were buying during my recommendation last week, today’s move is a reminder of why staying patient can pay off. The market often rebounds when fear is at its high, and those recovery days can happen without warning.

That doesn’t mean the volatility is over. Inflation remains a concern, the Fed is still holding rates steady, and ongoing geopolitical tensions could keep markets swinging in both directions. Short-term traders should expect more ups and downs as headlines continue to drive daily moves and take the win - ride the wave.

For long-term investors, however, the bigger picture hasn’t changed. Strong companies always recover, even if the road is bumpy. If you found an entry window last week there is plenty of upside long-term. Horizon is measured in years instead of weeks, temporary pullbacks are always opportunities instead of reasons to panic.