u/Tmid07

I’m having some major FOMO. But also my math ain’t mathin’ and I dunno if I’m dumb or onto something (be kind please, this is a legit good-fath question).

The IPO valuation was like USD $1.8 trillion, and shares were priced at USD $135. SpaceX had about $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue. So… investors are being asked to pay roughly 94x sales? Why…. How…

You don’t think that seems a little wild for a company that lost like $5 billion last year?

Starlink is apparently about 60% of revenue, ok cool good job. But it also makes me wonder how much of this valuation depends on Starlink becoming an even bigger global cash machine. Then there’s all the future stuff being priced in like Mars, space-based AI data centres, xAI/Grok integration, defence and other government contracts, and probably more shit we can’t even imagine yet (because Musk is a god among men and we can’t comprehend his genius, yadda yadda). 

But I just CANNOT wrap my head around the valuation. Like, is the market valuing SpaceX based on what it is today, or based on every best-case scenario happening perfectly over the next decade?

I don’t want to miss out on the investment opportunity of the century, but also it kinda feels less like “buying a great business at a high price” and more like “buying the dream after the dream has already been priced in.”

What am I missing? Is this valuation actually justified, or is this one of those IPOs where retail investors get handed the bag after all the private-market upside is already gone?

This is a legit question. I am so torn. I’m also fairly new to this, so I’m genuinely looking for insight I obviously missed.