u/Trader_santa

"The United States has reserves of most critical minerals; what it lacks is the capacity to mine and process many of them. China grew to dominate the minerals-refining industry in the late 20th century and controls more than 80% of the sector today. The International Energy Agency warned this month that $6.5 trillion of global manufacturing is at risk if Beijing imposes export restrictions on rare earths, as it has periodically in recent years.

Asked for comment, the White House referred to Trump's executive order, which says waivers can only be issued if a contractor shows an "exhaustive effort" to avoid Chinese material and has a timeline for weaning itself off such supply.

The Pentagon did not respond to requests for comment.

U.S. rare earths investment has been hindered by persistently low prices for many minerals, which Washington blames on China subsidizing its producers and flooding the market with cheap products, thus making American projects unprofitable.

China has repeatedly said it abides by World Trade Organization rules on global trade and works to ensure stable markets. A representative for the Chinese embassy in Washington had no further comment.

Ucore Rare Metals UCU.V, a minerals refining startup backed by the Pentagon, has developed a processing technology known as RapidSX that it believes is similar to but faster, cleaner and cheaper than the industry standard solvent extraction.

Ucore had planned to start refining by 2025 but has reworked its plans due to what it says are changing demands from the Pentagon. It now won't begin some production until 2027 at the earliest, company CEO Pat Ryan told Reuters.

"Can the entire supply chain be propped up by 2027? Boy, I tell you, that's a battle," Ryan said."

Both engineering and financing concerns adressed in the past 48hours

Trump may need to allow Chinese minerals as US industry struggles to meet 2027 deadline