u/Training-Bike6065

I run a hay price tracking newsletter, so I spend a lot of time on the phone with growers, brokers, cattle ops, and dairy nutritionists. Yesterday a rancher in Idaho I've been talking with for a bit sent me an unprompted read on the market. Posting it here because it lines up with almost everything else I've been hearing, and none of it shows up in the official numbers.

Here's what he said, paraphrased:

"Parts of Idaho got their water turned off. Hay growers here are way behind or had to replant from late frost. Cattle ranchers can't turn cattle out, so they're buying hay. Dairies in Idaho are buying too. Look at hay in Florida. Now add fuel and freight. They're going to make hay into gold."

That text got me thinking about how much of the actual hay market lives in conversations like that one, and how little of it makes it into the reports.

A few things I've learned in a year of tracking this market:

1. The USDA number often isn't the deal that happened. Voluntary price reporting has a bias baked in. Growers want higher prints, buyers want lower prints, and local reports lean heavily on broker conversations instead of verified transactions. Multiple producers have told me the reported average is $20-40 off what they actually got that week.
2. Split lab samples come back different grades. One grower sent the exact same lot to two forage labs. Came back Supreme from one and Good from the other. That's a $50-80/ton swing on identical hay. He double-tests everything now and averages.
3. Nutritionists, not dairies, are increasingly making the buying calls, especially in California. They're not comparing hay to hay. They're comparing alfalfa to corn, canola meal, almond hulls. When corn drops, alfalfa demand quietly softens even if the print stays steady. Except that relationship has been breaking down lately. High milk prices plus short water in the West are pulling premium alfalfa harder than the corn math would predict.
4. There is no "national hay price." Western Nebraska printed $300/ton FOB last week. Central Nebraska, same week: $135-150. Four hour drive. Same crop. Same state. The average of those two numbers is a lie that helps nobody.

That rancher is in the middle of it, but the same story is printing everywhere around him:

• Wyoming: USDA calling prices "sharply higher," D3 drought over 39.6% of the state, irrigation water short, Good/Premium large squares at $350-380/ton
• South Dakota: guys baling wheat as hay at $160/ton because forage is that tight
• Columbia Basin export timothy: $245-260/ton and still in good demand per USDA

Three different states, same pressure. That's a Western water story, not a state story. And it's happening while corn sits at $4.06/bu and DDGs run $155-167/ton, which means the feed substitutes that normally take pressure off hay demand aren't going to take pressure off anything this summer.

If you run cattle, buy square bales for horses, or operate a dairy, the number in the report is only part of the picture. The real market lives in freight math, water availability, cost of production, and who's talking to who.

Curious what everyone else is seeing on the ground. If you're growing or buying hay right now, what part of the country are you in and does any of this match what's happening around you?

We track USDA hay market reports every week, and one thing that stood out this week was how different regional markets continue to be.

Dakota, SD is sitting around $194/ton, while Pipestone, MN is around $127/ton—a $67/ton difference. Rock Valley, IA also moved up $6/ton this week.

Curious what everyone is seeing in their area.

Are prices staying steady where you are, or starting to move?

National hay index landed at $220/ton this week, down 1.6%. Most grades softened, alfalfa $258, grass $170, mixed grass off the most at 4%.

But the national number isn't really the story. The spread between markets is wild right now: $70 to $364/ton in the same week. Nebraska Central had premium alfalfa/orchard at $364 while utility alfalfa in the same region went for $70. Arthur, IL saw good alfalfa jump 95% in a week, while supreme alfalfa in northern California dropped 40%.

Backdrop: diesel came down 15¢ to $5.06/gal, cattle on feed is at 11.68M head (+2% YoY), and hay stocks are tightening vs a year ago.

Good alfalfa, the everyday hay most people feed their animals, sold for $125 a ton at auction in Nebraska this week. The same USDA grade went for $275 in Wolgemuth, Pennsylvania. Same stamp, same quality, more than double the price. On a full truckload that's about $7,500 for identical hay, depending on which side of the country you're standing on.

Some of that is geography. Pennsylvania barely grows alfalfa, so it ships in from out west and you pay the freight. Nebraska sits right next to where it's grown. But the part that gets me is that hay might be the biggest crop in America that trades completely in the dark. No exchange, no posted price, no ticker like corn or cattle. Almost all of it moves in private deals over a phone or off a tailgate, and the only person who knows the real going rate is usually the one selling it to you.

The national high this week was also Pennsylvania, at $480 a ton for premium grass hay. Somebody paid it.

So what are you paying right now, what kind, and roughly where are you? I'd bet the spread in this comment section beats anything USDA prints.

This week's spread in alfalfa prices is the widest I've seen, and it's moving fast.

There's no national hay market. No exchange, no futures, barely any price reporting on an $8B crop. So the country has split in two:

West (CO, MT, WY, UT, AZ, NM, TX): Tight and getting tighter. Medians $300+. Utah and Montana are drought-locked. Wyoming is already sold out of 2025 crop and it's June. If you're out here and haven't locked in winter hay, every week you wait the options shrink. Move now.

Midwest/Plains (IA, MN, SD, NE, KS): This is the opportunity side. Medians $175-185, supply comfortable, sellers negotiable. Buyers here have leverage they won't have all year. And if you're anywhere near the boundary, a $150+/ton gap means trucking hay in from the loose region can beat buying local.

One catch wherever you are: don't trust the grade name. "Good" is swinging $100/ton between sales at the same auction right now. Ask for RFV numbers or crack a bale.

This window won't stay open. Either the West gets rain or freight closes the gap.

Drop your state and I'll tell you what hay's actually going for near you. I've got this week's USDA auction data open right now.

Y’all know I do the weekly USDA hay auction breakdown. This week’s worth posting because the gap between what hay actually trades for and what we pay for small squares is wild right now.

Look at this. Good large-round alfalfa went through Midwest auctions this week around $150–215/ton Pipestone MN $150, Rock Valley IA $162. Now the small squares people actually reported buying: CA premium 3-string $480/ton equivalent, Oklahoma supreme grass $600/ton, NE Washington alfalfa ~$364/ton.

So retail small-square runs 2–4x the wholesale auction price. That bale at the feed store isn’t priced off hay, it’s priced off handling, trucking, and the fact that you’re buying 12 bales not 12 tons. Doesn’t mean you’re getting robbed but knowing the wholesale floor is the only way to tell a fair price from a gouge.

The timing thing: the West is drying out fast. Wyoming’s sold out. Utah and Montana very light, whole region’s in drought. Nebraska’s sitting on light tonnage going into summer from lack of moisture, and California dairy/export demand is strong. Demand’s stacking up right where supply is shortest, which is what pushes prices up.

If you buy, I would consider locking in your summer hay in the next month-ish before the dry squeeze hits. Kansas, Oregon, Colorado are still “moderate,” that’s where the value is. If Nebraska firms up, the Plains follow.

If you sell or you’re sitting on quality hay near a dry area I would consider holding and watching, don’t dump.

so i've been tracking hay prices cause i'm a data nerd and also have horses, and holy shit the numbers are rough if you're out west.

colorado timothy is at $483/ton this week. normally it's like $180-220. california is $291, washington and oregon are running $245-300, montana's $210-270, and pennsylvania is anywhere from $240-440 which makes no sense to me.

meanwhile midwest alfalfa is still sitting at $90-135. which would be great if you could actually get it shipped but trucking hay 800 miles costs more than you'd save so that's not happening.

drought's messed everything up and first cutting won't even start for another 6-8 weeks in the mountain areas. probably won't get better until august if we're lucky.

if you haven't bought summer hay yet and you're in one of the expensive areas, might want to lock something in now because july could be even worse.

Hay buyers and hay sellers are reading the same market completely differently right now.

Sellers see: Eastern markets at $350-440/ton, Wyoming sold out, drought cutting into supply. They're holding inventory waiting for prices to climb further.

Buyers see: Midwest auctions softened slightly this week, first cutting coming in 2-3 weeks, maybe prices ease if yields are decent. They're waiting too.

Both sides are frozen. That's actually what creates the spike — when first cutting numbers come in short and both sides realize they waited too long, buyers compete hard and prices jump fast.

Seen this pattern play out before in drought years. The people who bought in February are looking smart right now.

Posting from the bottom of a crater in Iceland btw :)

I track hay prices every week across 62 markets and this week is rough. Wyoming alfalfa cubes are $375-380/ton, not because anyone's gouging but because there just isn't any. Drought killed them.

Colorado premium alfalfa is clearing around $280/ton on big squares and Pennsylvania supreme is averaging $419/ton. Oregon snowpack is down 71%, Utah down 65%, Colorado down 51%, and China just re-entered the export market in February which is gonna squeeze the west even more. First cutting is still 4-6 weeks out.

If you feed horses or cattle or goats or whatever and you live somewhere drought hit hard, it's worth securing supply now rather than waiting. Drought years don't soften after first cutting, they tighten.

What's everyone paying where you are? I'm curious how auction numbers line up with what people actually pay at the feed store, especially for small squares since most auction data is big rounds.

been doing this since february. every monday i pull auction reports from 55+ markets and look for patterns. here's what i'm seeing.

the midwest is becoming everyone's backstop

western production is getting squeezed from every direction. water allocations cut to 27 days in some california districts. arizona towns running out of water within 2 months. when the west can't produce, buyers come east.

it's already showing up at auction

• missouri supreme alfalfa: up $113/ton in one week last month

• dakota SD good alfalfa: up $50/ton this week

• rock valley iowa: buyers coming from further distances than usual, all grades up

that's not random. eastern demand is pulling west as supply tightens.

first cutting is the wildcard

midwest first cutting starts in the next few weeks. nebraska is dry. if it comes in 10-15% short there's no western supply to make up the difference this year.

bottom line

if you're buying hay this summer and waiting to see what happens you're probably going to pay more than you would today.

not telling anyone what to do. just sharing what the data says.

what are you seeing locally?

talked to a farmer last week who said his irrigation district gave them 27 days of water. for the whole summer. one block, that's it.

normally they'd get 3-4 cuttings. this year they're getting one.

that's not an outlier. water allocations across california, arizona, and parts of oregon are brutal right now. a lot of ground that normally produces hay is switching to pistachios or going dry.

when the west can't produce, buyers come east. we're already seeing it in auction data:

missouri supreme jumped $113/ton in a single week last month. dakota SD good alfalfa up $50/ton just this week. rock valley iowa is seeing buyers driving further than usual to fill trucks.

midwest first cutting starts in a few weeks. if it comes in short after a dry spring, there's nothing from the west to make up the difference this year.

anyone else keeping an eye on this? what are you seeing locally?