u/Unable-Log-4870

So I added in a Home Field Advantage (HFA) estimator to my strength estimating algorithm. And I verified that it worked properly by taking the 2026 season, adding in one run to every home team score, and getting back a value of 0.8 runs HFA (which is decent estimation performance for something simple) more than the HFA is estimated to be if I do NOT mess with the scores.

So the estimator is working fine. But… it tells me that the HFA is 0.003 runs, on average. Which I guess is reasonable, but also negligible. I was estimating based solely on games between March 10th and May 3rd, since that’s the part of season where being the Home team almost always means you’re playing at home, in your own stadium, sleeping in your own bed, practicing in your own facility, and playing for your home fans. So the allowed dates for this were after the early tournaments and ending the Sunday before the Conference tournament. And I limited it to games where at least 1 team was in the top 50. There were about 870 such games, so PLENTY of games to estimate one little parameter from without issue. But… it’s just not there. If I include ALL the games in the time period, bringing it up to 3800 games, the HFA goes up to a whopping 0.1 runs. I can run the estimator another way and get a value of 0.07 runs using the top 50 teams. So that’s as big as I can make it. But I think it’s actually near-zero.

Anyway, I was surprised, and thought I would share.

So I’m giving my model’s estimates WITHOUT HFA, since it seems to be zero-ish anyway.

Alabama by 1.5 runs over LSU

Arkansas by 2.8 runs over Duke

Texas by 3.0 runs over Arizona State

Texas tech by 0.8 runs over Florida (so here I’m saying it’s more likely that the host loses)

Oklahoma by 3.9 runs over Miss State

Georgia by 0.7 runs over Tennessee (again, my model says it’s more likely that Georgia wins here as the visitor)

Nebraska by 3.0 runs over OK State

UCLA by 3.6 runs over UCF

So by the numbers, it looks like the two that were closest are the two that my model sees opposite to how the NCAA saw them. And maybe Alabama will get a good scare.

As always, my strength numbers are an estimate of a team’s ability to score runs and also prevent the other team from scoring runs. And when you subtract those numbers for two teams, you get an estimated score differential. That is what I gave here, the on-average expected score differentials. Use them however you wish, I do have a money-back policy (if you don’t like my opinion I’ll return whatever you paid me for it).

Of the results posted here, I dislike Tennessee losing, and I dislike Texas winning, but I don’t know enough detail to disagree with my model. We get to start finding out on Thursday.

Is anyone is curious about the statistical performance of my model during regionals, I have some interesting but maybe a bit complicated plots I can post to show that statistically, the teams played more or less like normal, with normal amounts of randomness, which is what you’d want if you were making statistical models.

So here’s two tables, the top 15 over-performances and top 15 under-performances. But since each have had two teams involved, from a very real perspective, each game belongs in both categories.

But that would be stupidly repetitive, so I just listed them relative to whether the favorite overperformed or underperformed. You can figure out which is which. So Stetson over Florida State is an underperformance of the favorite, but due to the column headings, it is shown as a very negative overperformance .

Note that the under or over performance (the column on the right, the one you need to look at, YOU MAY HAVE TO SCROLL) is in terms of runs. If you want to convert that to something like a percent chance that it could have been more extreme, know that an under or over performance of 4.3 runs is only expected to happen about 16% of the time, and for 10 runs is expected 1% of the time. Something like the Belmont loss to Upstate, an underperformance by 12.9 runs, happens just over 0.1% of the time (so 1.3 times in 1000). As before, it is just as valid to view this as an Upstate miracle performance as well, but I’m a pessimist, so I won’t be doing that myself.

Anyway, here’s the data, with favored teams overtperforming up top. The underperformance table is below that. Sorry for the shit formatting. Reddit kinda sucks for that.

Best 15:

awayTeam awayScore homeTeam homeScore favoriteOverperformance _______________ _________ __________________ _________ _______________________

'UCLA'                15        'South Carolina'          1                 10.5  
    
'Eastern Ill.'         0        'Oklahoma St.'           16                  8.6  
    
'Texas Tech'          14        'Ole Miss'                2                  8.2    
  
'UConn'                3        'Texas A&M'              17                  7.8  
    
'Virginia Tech'        0        'LSU'                     8                  7.7     
 
'Duke'                11        'Marshall'                1                  6.9      

'Florida St.'         11        'Jacksonville St.'        0                  6.5   
   
'Oklahoma St.'        11        'Stanford'                5                  5.5 
     
'UCF'                 10        'Stetson'                 1                  4.9     
 
'Arizona'              4        'Duke'                    9                  4.9      

'LSU'                  7        'Virginia Tech'           2                  4.7      

'Stanford'             2        'Oklahoma St.'            7                  4.5  
    
'Florida'              8        'Georgia Tech'            0                  4.3    
  
'McNeese'              0        'Arizona St.'             8                  3.8  
    
'Marist'               2        'Boston U.'              10                  3.6 

Worst 15:

      awayTeam          awayScore          homeTeam          homeScore    favoriteOverperformance
____________________    _________    ____________________    _________    _______________________

'USC Upstate'              10        'Belmont'                   1                 -12.9         

'Stetson'                   8        'Florida St.'               3                 -11.6         

'Northern Ky.'              1        'Tennessee'                 3                  -9.7         

'Texas A&M'                 1        'Arizona St.'               9                  -9.5         

'Arizona'                  10        'Duke'                      1                  -9.1         


'Louisville'                2        'South Dakota'              4                  -8.3         

'Col. of Charleston'        2        'Georgia'                   5                    -8         

'South Dakota'              1        'Nebraska'                  4                  -7.8         

'Wagner'                    1        'Texas'                     9                  -7.7         

'Southeastern La.'          4        'USC Upstate'               5                  -6.9         

'California Baptist'       11        'UCLA'                     12                    -6         

'Virginia Tech'             7        'Akron'                     6                  -5.9         

'Clemson'                   3        'Col. of Charleston'        1                  -5.6         

'Oregon'                    4        'Saint Mary's (CA)'         5                  -5.1         

'South Dakota'              4        'Grand Canyon'              5                  -5.1

…Or maybe not. I don’t actually know things.

First time slot, noon eastern: watch the Duke/ Arizona game. Duke is hosting, and they have been involved in three run rule games so far this weekend, winning two of them and losing one of them, to Arizona. My models show this match up being a tossup, So let’s see in Arizona can make it 2 in a row over Duke, or not.

2nd time slot, 1 PM eastern: skip the Texas and Arkansas games and keep watching Duke / Arizona. Added bonus is you don’t have to see that truly off-putting shade of orange they wear in Austin.

3rd time slot, 2 pm eastern: either Tennessee/ Virginia or LSU / VA Tech. The LSU game has better chances of an upset (if you doing take into account games from the past 3 days), but I will be watching Tennessee/ Virginia because Tennessee has been underperforming the last half of the season, and Virginia has played strong. My model had Indiana beating Virginia by a slim margin, which was right about the slim margin (twice), but wrong about who won. So Virginia is over-performing by enough to make Tennessee have to fight.

3 PM eastern time slot: TAMU / Arizona State is the best matchup, expected run differential under 1.5 runs. Nebraska / Grand Canyon should be good because NE has been underperforming the last two days, and Grand Canyon earned the spot. Expected differential 4 runs. OU is also playing Michigan, but I expect that to be less entertaining.

4 pm eastern time slot: Texas Tech versus Ole Miss will honestly probably suck, so I would go with Oklahoma State versus Stanford. OSU is a little streaky, and the statistics say this should be close.

7:30 eastern time slot: hard to say, the UCLA versus South Carolina game has an expected three run differential, and UCLA did manage to almost lose on Friday. But the Mississippi State versus St. Mary’s game is the only one without a host playing in it, with the same 3.5 expected run differential as UCLA versus South Carolina

And definitely watch any of them that go to the IF NECESSARY game!

Happy Softballing!

• and if I steer you wrong, I guarantee a full refund!

Regarding the Ducks’ unfortunate early exit from the tournament, I was wondering how often hosts get booted on Saturday. Since COVID, it happened:

2x in 2021, and once each in 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026

The 2023 one was particularly rare because it was #2 seed UCLA who went 2 and out, which is the only time that happened in this period. Every other host picked up at least 1 W before going out.

Host upsets overall:

2021: 3

2022: 5

2023: 3

2024: 2

2025: 4

2026: tell you tomorrow

Just a quick note:

I’ve looked at the data (and the strengths from my model), and the FSU loss to Stetson was only the the 2nd worst upset of the tournament so far, with FSU underperforming by about 11.6 runs.

That performance was second to Belmont getting obliterated by USC Upstate, with Belmont underperforming by 12.9 runs.

The 3rd worst performance was Tennessee vs Northern KY, with TN winning 3-1, but still underperforming by 9.6 runs (forget for a moment that TN never scores 9 runs, it’s a math thing, you’d understand if I explained it, but you’d be super annoyed by me explaining it).

And if you disagree with the negative framing on these performances, just call them strongest over-performances for the underdogs, and 2 of the 3 got the W they were stretching for.

As for Texas Tech using a grand slam to come back for a tie, on their last out (maybe their last strike, I don’t remember)… my model only works using the final score, so that just looks like an underperformance by TT by about 2.8 runs. That is… extremely unsatisfying.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled (yet moderately delayed) tournament.

Some of the predictions for Friday’s games were dead on, and some were off by a lot (presumably because some of the teams were, um, playing badly). Here’s what my model says for the first two rounds on Saturday, in the order they are scheduled to happen, just in case you want to use this to decide what to watch, or to see if something weird is happening.

Winners bracket games:

Florida at Georgia Tech: Florida by 3.7

UCF at Stetson: UCF by 4.1

Wisconsin at Texas, Texas by 6

Nebraska at grand canyon, Nebraska by 4.6

Georgia at UNC Greensboro, Georgia by 7.3

Arizona at duke, Duke by 0.1. Toss-up!

Stanford at Oklahoma State, Oklahoma State by 0.5

Virginia tech at LSU, LSU by 0.3 TOSS-up

Alabama at Belmont, Alabama by 6.5

South Florida at Arkansas, Arkansas by 6.1

Kansas at Oklahoma, Oklahoma by 5.7

Virginia at Tennessee, Tennessee by 2.9

Ole Miss at Texas Tech, Texas tech by 3.8

Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M by 1.5

Oregon at Mississippi State, Oregon by 0.6

South Carolina at UCLA, UCLA by 3.5

Elimination games:

Texas state at Florida A&M, tx st by 7

Florida State at Jacksonville State FSU by 4.3

Akron at South Alabama, South Alabama by 1.4

Eastern Illinois at Princeton, Princeton by 1

Howard at Marshall, Marshall by 7

Clemson at Charleston, Clemson by 7.5

Louisville at South Dakota, Louisville by 6.2

Wagner at Baylor, Baylor by 9.5

Washington at Fordham, Washington by 7.4

Southeast Louisiana at a South Carolina upstate, SELA by 5.9

UConn at mcneese, McNeese by 0.6

Marist at Boston U, Boston U by 4.4

North Kentucky at Indiana, Indiana by 10

Binghamton at Michigan, Michigan by 7.5

Idaho State at Saint Mary’s, St Mary’s by 1.9

Fullerton at California Baptist, Fullerton by 0.8

I just looked back through the 2021-2025 brackets, checking for teams that lost the first game of the regional, but came back to win it.

It happened in 2022 and 2024, in 2022 it was the host. In 2024, it was the 2nd rated team at the regional.

So yeah, it’s possible. But 2 / (16 * 5) is 2.5%. So yeah, FSU has a chance, but it’s small.

Edit: for hosts losing on Friday and coming back to win the regional, we have (before today) hosts losing on Friday once in 2023, 24, and 25. And one came back to win (2024, Missouri tigers). So as of now, let’s say the odds are 1 in 3 of a comeback.

But yeah, UCLA in 2023 going 1, 2, BBQ, as the National #2 seed… So good.

Feel free to taunt my model, I won’t take it personally.

Florida A&M at Florida: Florida by 11.5 (currently Florida leading 12-0 in bottom of 4th with no outs and nobody on- nope, took me too long to post, 12-0 final. But I call that a win for the model, within 0.5 runs)

Stetson at FSU: FSU by 6.6 (FSU currently TRAILING 7-3 in the bottom of the 4th, yeesh)

Howard at Duke: Duke by 9.6 (currently Duke leads 5-0 top of the 4th with 2 outs, 2 on)

SC upstate at Alabama: Bama by 10.5 (currently 0-0 top 2nd)

Okay, now for the games that haven’t started yet:

Georgia Tech vs Texas state: GT by 0.6 runs so nearly a toss up

Baylor at Wisconsin: Wisconsin by 0.06 runs (definitely toss up)

UConn at TAMU: TAMU by 6.2

Boston U at Ole Miss: Ole Miss by 3

Princeton at Stanford: Cardinal by 5.9

Marshall at Arizona: Arizona by 3

Jax State at UCF: UCF by 2

Binghamton at Oklahoma: OU by 13.6

Belmont at SELA: SELA by 2

Wagner at Texas: TX by 15.7

Grand Canyon at Louisville: Louisville by 0.2 definite toss up

South Alabama at Virginia tech: Virginia tech by 4.6

Marist at Texas tech: Texas tech by 11.2

East Illinois at Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State by. 7.4

UNC Greensboro at Clemson: Clemson by 3.9

McNeese at Arizona State: Arizona State by 4.2

Fordham at Arkansas: Arkansas by 11

Northern Kentucky at Tennessee: Tennessee by 11.7

Michigan at Kansas: even. Just. Even.

South Dakota at Nebraska: Nebraska by 10.7

Akron at LSU: LSU by 7.2

Charleston at Georgia: Georgia by: I can’t tell which of the two Charleston-named teams this is, Georgia by a lot.

Saint Mary’s at Mississippi State: MS st by: 3.5

Fullerton at South Carolina: South Carolina by 2.8

South Florida at Washington, Washington by 2.5

Indiana at Virginia, Indiana by 1

California Baptist at UCLA, UCLA by 7

Idaho state at Oregon, Oregon by 6

I was having trouble submitting posts, so I decided to submit this one as a test

2022:

Team Rankings and Defensive Strength (relative to best team = 0):

1: Oklahoma 0.00

2: UCLA -0.57

3: Oklahoma St. -0.79

4: Oregon St. -1.38

5: Stanford -1.63

6: Alabama -1.68

7: Florida -1.73

8: Washington -1.74

9: Clemson -1.76

10: Auburn -1.85

11: Duke -1.93

12: Arizona St. -1.96

13: Tennessee -2.00

14: Virginia Tech -2.12

15: Arkansas -2.12

16: Michigan -2.21

17: Missouri -2.22

18: LSU -2.30

19: UCF -2.38

20: Oregon -2.44

21: Florida St. -2.45

22: Texas -2.53

23: Utah -2.62

24: Central Ark. -2.63

25: Illinois -2.67

26: Texas St. -2.76

27: Georgia Tech -2.85

28: Kentucky -2.89

29: Liberty -2.92

30: Ole Miss -2.96

31: San Diego St. -2.97

32: LMU (CA) -2.97

33: South Fla. -2.98

34: South Alabama -2.99

35: Louisiana -3.03

36: Texas A&M -3.03

37: Notre Dame -3.07

38: Wisconsin -3.12

39: Nebraska -3.14

40: Mississippi St. -3.15

41: Boise St. -3.16

42: Arizona -3.21

43: Boston U. -3.21

44: Penn St. -3.25

45: Virginia -3.26

46: UNI -3.30

47: Georgia -3.31

48: Western Ky. -3.33

49: California -3.33

50: North Texas -3.34

51: Northwestern -3.35

52: South Dakota St. -3.37

53: BYU -3.37

54: Ohio St. -3.37

55: UC San Diego -3.40

56: Baylor -3.41

57: Murray St. -3.44

58: Michigan St. -3.50

59: North Florida -3.51

60: Seattle U -3.54

61: Troy -3.59

62: California Baptist -3.62

63: UNLV -3.63

64: Iowa St. -3.69

65: Missouri St. -3.70

66: South Carolina -3.76

67: Syracuse -3.76

68: Charlotte -3.77

69: Omaha -3.78

70: Samford -3.82

71: Louisiana Tech -3.82

72: McNeese -3.90

73: Villanova -3.95

74: Grand Canyon -3.96

75: Wichita St. -3.97

76: UNC Greensboro -3.97

77: Houston -3.98

78: Weber St. -3.99

79: Bowling Green -3.99

80: UNCW -4.00

81: Texas Tech -4.02

82: Maryland -4.04

83: Hawaii -4.05

84: Northwestern St. -4.10

85: Boston College -4.11

86: Minnesota -4.16

87: Cal St. Fullerton -4.17

88: UC Davis -4.19

89: San Jose St. -4.20

90: UConn -4.23

91: Butler -4.27

92: Southern Ill. -4.30

93: UT Martin -4.31

94: Portland St. -4.34

95: Campbell -4.35

96: Saint Francis (PA) -4.36

97: Southeastern La. -4.37

98: Southern Miss. -4.39

99: ULM -4.43

100: Kansas -4.44

101: SFA -4.45

102: Fla. Atlantic -4.50

103: Hofstra -4.50

104: San Diego -4.51

105: Miami (OH) -4.51

106: UAB -4.54

107: Louisville -4.54

108: Southeast Mo. St. -4.55

109: Delaware -4.55

110: Long Beach St. -4.55

111: Middle Tenn. -4.56

112: Belmont -4.60

113: Colorado St. -4.60

114: Longwood -4.62

115: Saint Joseph's -4.64

116: Jacksonville St. -4.65

117: Kennesaw St. -4.65

118: Bradley -4.66

119: Kent St. -4.67

120: Central Mich. -4.68

121: Tulsa -4.70

122: Austin Peay -4.70

123: CSUN -4.71

124: Marshall -4.73

125: Loyola Chicago -4.75

126: FGCU -4.75

127: George Washington -4.75

128: USC Upstate -4.75

129: App State -4.82

130: North Dakota St. -4.82

131: NC State -4.82

132: North Carolina -4.83

133: Georgia St. -4.83

134: UC Riverside -4.84

135: Pittsburgh -4.84

136: Sacramento St. -4.85

137: Cal Poly -4.86

138: Providence -4.86

139: Illinois St. -4.86

140: Fordham -4.86

141: Princeton -4.90

142: Fresno St. -4.90

143: UT Arlington -4.93

144: North Ala. -4.98

145: Pacific -5.00

146: Stetson -5.03

147: Indiana St. -5.06

148: Brown -5.08

149: Elon -5.08

150: Montana -5.10

151: Youngstown St. -5.11

152: Abilene Christian -5.12

153: DePaul -5.15

154: Northern Ky. -5.15

155: Purdue -5.16

156: Bethune-Cookman -5.19

157: Iowa -5.19

158: Morgan St. -5.20

159: Mount St. Mary's -5.21

160: Coastal Carolina -5.21

161: New Mexico -5.23

162: Col. of Charleston -5.24

163: Chattanooga -5.27

164: Tarleton St. -5.28

165: Drake -5.29

166: Binghamton -5.31

167: Rider -5.31

168: Rutgers -5.33

169: Radford -5.33

170: Saint Louis -5.34

171: Presbyterian -5.36

172: Harvard -5.37

173: Kansas City -5.40

174: Indiana -5.41

175: Dixie St. -5.41

176: FIU -5.46

177: James Madison -5.48

178: Canisius -5.50

179: Charleston So. -5.50

180: Robert Morris -5.50

181: Western Mich. -5.50

182: Iona -5.51

183: Ohio -5.52

184: Idaho St. -5.52

185: Utah St. -5.58

186: Seton Hall -5.59

187: Furman -5.62

188: Drexel -5.63

189: Dartmouth -5.64

190: A&M-Corpus Christi -5.66

191: Northern Colo. -5.69

192: Lehigh -5.69

193: Buffalo -5.71

194: Evansville -5.71

195: Siena -5.73

196: Sam Houston -5.74

197: Stony Brook -5.77

198: Western Caro. -5.78

199: Texas Southern -5.78

200: UAlbany -5.79

201: UMBC -5.79

202: SIUE -5.81

203: Oakland -5.82

204: Tennessee St. -5.84

205: St. John's (NY) -5.88

206: UTSA -5.89

207: Santa Clara -5.92

208: Army West Point -5.92

209: Houston Baptist -5.93

210: Fairleigh Dickinson -5.93

211: UMass Lowell -5.94

212: Winthrop -5.95

213: Eastern Ky. -5.96

214: Ball St. -5.98

215: Cleveland St. -6.01

216: UTEP -6.03

217: Saint Mary's (CA) -6.03

218: Cornell -6.05

219: East Carolina -6.06

220: Green Bay -6.06

221: Dayton -6.07

222: George Mason -6.08

223: Lipscomb -6.08

224: Fairfield -6.09

225: North Dakota -6.09

226: Wagner -6.10

227: Holy Cross -6.15

228: Hampton -6.17

229: Gardner-Webb -6.17

230: Nevada -6.18

231: Tennessee Tech -6.19

232: Colgate -6.20

233: ETSU -6.22

234: Eastern Ill. -6.24

235: Ga. Southern -6.26

236: Memphis -6.26

237: Lamar University -6.27

238: St. Thomas (MN) -6.35

239: UIW -6.36

240: Bucknell -6.37

241: Utah Valley -6.38

242: Massachusetts -6.42

243: Columbia -6.44

244: Bellarmine -6.44

245: Valparaiso -6.49

246: UC Santa Barbara -6.50

247: South Dakota -6.52

248: Bryant -6.55

249: UIC -6.58

250: Mercer -6.60

251: Akron -6.61

252: Marist -6.62

253: Creighton -6.64

254: Nicholls -6.72

255: Niagara -6.74

256: Western Ill. -6.79

257: IUPUI -6.81

258: Manhattan -6.83

259: Towson -6.90

260: NIU -6.91

261: Alabama St. -6.94

262: Mississippi Val. -6.95

263: LIU -6.99

264: Jacksonville -7.00

265: Monmouth -7.03

266: Georgetown -7.07

267: Florida A&M -7.08

268: CSU Bakersfield -7.08

269: Merrimack -7.12

270: Saint Peter's -7.16

271: Norfolk St. -7.16

272: Penn -7.20

273: St. Bonaventure -7.22

274: Morehead St. -7.26

275: N.C. A&T -7.28

276: Howard -7.31

277: Hartford -7.43

278: Toledo -7.43

279: Alabama A&M -7.45

280: Jackson St. -7.45

281: Lafayette -7.51

282: Alcorn -7.59

283: Detroit Mercy -7.64

284: Rhode Island -7.64

285: Quinnipiac -7.67

286: Grambling -7.72

287: Central Conn. St. -7.90

288: Maine -7.91

289: Yale -7.98

290: Southern Utah -8.05

291: Sacred Heart -8.23

292: Southern U. -8.25

293: Purdue Fort Wayne -8.29

294: Prairie View -8.45

295: UMES -8.61

296: New Mexico St. -8.89

297: Coppin St. -9.27

298: Delaware St. -9.53

299: N.C. Central -9.55

300: Ark.-Pine Bluff -10.57

301: South Carolina St. -11.07

2023:

Team Rankings and Defensive Strength (relative to best team = 0):

1: Stanford 0.00

2: Oklahoma -0.31

3: UCLA -1.13

4: Tennessee -1.24

5: Florida St. -1.40

6: LSU -1.56

7: Clemson -1.68

8: Texas A&M -2.03

9: Oklahoma St. -2.06

10: Texas St. -2.24

11: Alabama -2.29

12: Utah -2.36

13: Texas -2.38

14: Auburn -2.40

15: Ole Miss -2.41

16: North Texas -2.46

17: Central Ark. -2.48

18: Oregon -2.51

19: Maryland -2.54

20: Washington -2.55

21: Baylor -2.61

22: Arkansas -2.62

23: Wisconsin -2.62

24: Georgia -2.68

25: Northwestern -2.73

26: Duke -2.75

27: South Carolina -2.79

28: Mississippi St. -2.89

29: Minnesota -2.95

30: Florida -2.98

31: South Alabama -2.99

32: Missouri -3.05

33: Wichita St. -3.13

34: McNeese -3.14

35: Oregon St. -3.15

36: Louisiana -3.18

37: Charlotte -3.19

38: San Diego St. -3.23

39: Omaha -3.23

40: Cal St. Fullerton -3.23

41: Michigan -3.24

42: Notre Dame -3.28

43: Rutgers -3.29

44: Grand Canyon -3.35

45: Iowa -3.40

46: Louisiana Tech -3.42

47: Arizona -3.42

48: Liberty -3.44

49: Virginia -3.44

50: Nebraska -3.48

51: LMU (CA) -3.50

52: Long Beach St. -3.52

53: Marshall -3.56

54: UCF -3.57

55: Virginia Tech -3.57

56: BYU -3.58

57: Fla. Atlantic -3.59

58: Arizona St. -3.67

59: UC Davis -3.69

60: Louisville -3.75

61: Penn St. -3.75

62: South Dakota St. -3.77

63: North Dakota St. -3.77

64: Kansas -3.77

65: UConn -3.82

66: Iowa St. -3.89

67: Stetson -3.97

68: Georgia Tech -3.98

69: UNI -4.00

70: Texas Tech -4.00

71: ULM -4.02

72: Kentucky -4.02

73: Boston U. -4.05

74: Boise St. -4.06

75: Murray St. -4.09

76: North Ala. -4.10

77: A&M-Corpus Christi -4.11

78: Western Ky. -4.18

79: South Fla. -4.23

80: Villanova -4.25

81: Ohio St. -4.25

82: USC Upstate -4.26

83: Purdue -4.26

84: Indiana -4.28

85: Belmont -4.31

86: Boston College -4.32

87: Indiana St. -4.33

88: Nevada -4.35

89: Samford -4.37

90: UC Riverside -4.39

91: Campbell -4.40

92: North Carolina -4.40

93: Northwestern St. -4.41

94: Coastal Carolina -4.43

95: Middle Tenn. -4.45

96: Central Mich. -4.46

97: SFA -4.46

98: Illinois -4.47

99: Utah Tech -4.49

100: Fresno St. -4.50

101: Seattle U -4.51

102: Troy -4.53

103: UAB -4.58

104: Southeastern La. -4.60

105: UC San Diego -4.61

106: Missouri St. -4.64

107: California -4.64

108: Longwood -4.66

109: California Baptist -4.67

110: Southeast Mo. St. -4.71

111: Binghamton -4.71

112: FIU -4.73

113: Mount St. Mary's -4.74

114: UNCW -4.75

115: Chattanooga -4.75

116: Hawaii -4.76

117: NIU -4.81

118: Seton Hall -4.81

119: Illinois St. -4.82

120: Ohio -4.83

121: Lehigh -4.83

122: Queens (NC) -4.86

123: App State -4.86

124: Winthrop -4.89

125: UC Santa Barbara -4.89

126: Southern Miss. -4.89

127: FGCU -4.90

128: Colorado St. -4.90

129: Akron -4.91

130: San Diego -4.91

131: Syracuse -4.91

132: UNC Greensboro -4.91

133: CSUN -4.92

134: Sacramento St. -4.92

135: Pittsburgh -4.92

136: Loyola Chicago -4.93

137: North Florida -4.93

138: James Madison -4.93

139: Tulsa -4.95

140: Utah Valley -4.95

141: East Carolina -4.97

142: Jacksonville -4.98

143: Austin Peay -4.98

144: Nicholls -5.00

145: Delaware -5.00

146: George Mason -5.00

147: Sam Houston -5.01

148: Houston Christian -5.02

149: Cal Poly -5.10

150: Kennesaw St. -5.10

151: Harvard -5.17

152: UT Arlington -5.18

153: SIUE -5.21

154: Lamar University -5.22

155: Michigan St. -5.22

156: Miami (OH) -5.23

157: Dayton -5.30

158: Houston -5.33

159: New Mexico St. -5.36

160: South Dakota -5.36

161: Western Mich. -5.36

162: Canisius -5.40

163: Northern Ky. -5.41

164: FDU -5.43

165: Lipscomb -5.43

166: Rider -5.45

167: Santa Clara -5.46

168: Princeton -5.47

169: Hofstra -5.52

170: LIU -5.53

171: Eastern Ill. -5.54

172: San Jose St. -5.54

173: Ball St. -5.56

174: UNLV -5.58

175: Robert Morris -5.59

176: Charleston So. -5.59

177: Pacific -5.60

178: UMBC -5.61

179: Western Caro. -5.62

180: Saint Joseph's -5.62

181: Fordham -5.63

182: Ga. Southern -5.64

183: Presbyterian -5.65

184: Creighton -5.67

185: Bradley -5.67

186: Tennessee St. -5.67

187: Jacksonville St. -5.67

188: Northern Colo. -5.68

189: Toledo -5.68

190: Fairfield -5.69

191: Marist -5.72

192: St. John's (NY) -5.73

193: Drake -5.75

194: Furman -5.76

195: Buffalo -5.77

196: Saint Mary's (CA) -5.77

197: Siena -5.78

198: Saint Francis (PA) -5.78

199: Southern Ill. -5.80

200: Tarleton St. -5.80

201: Brown -5.82

202: Bucknell -5.85

203: Saint Louis -5.85

204: Elon -5.86

205: UT Martin -5.87

206: Purdue Fort Wayne -5.87

207: Col. of Charleston -5.89

208: NC State -5.90

209: George Washington -5.93

210: Youngstown St. -5.95

211: Eastern Ky. -5.95

212: UIW -5.95

213: Utah St. -5.98

214: Butler -6.01

215: Cornell -6.04

216: Kent St. -6.04

217: Towson -6.05

218: Monmouth -6.07

219: Bethune-Cookman -6.07

220: Weber St. -6.09

221: Southern Ind. -6.14

222: Morgan St. -6.14

223: UIC -6.16

224: Mercer -6.19

225: Rhode Island -6.21

226: New Mexico -6.22

227: Massachusetts -6.24

228: ETSU -6.24

229: Dartmouth -6.25

230: Colgate -6.26

231: Evansville -6.29

232: Gardner-Webb -6.32

233: Georgetown -6.33

234: Central Conn. St. -6.33

235: Army West Point -6.34

236: Georgia St. -6.36

237: Stony Brook -6.37

238: Prairie View -6.39

239: UTEP -6.44

240: Oakland -6.45

241: Wagner -6.45

242: Idaho St. -6.46

243: Merrimack -6.47

244: Green Bay -6.50

245: Iona -6.50

246: Drexel -6.53

247: Morehead St. -6.53

248: UTSA -6.55

249: Maine -6.59

250: UMass Lowell -6.60

251: Quinnipiac -6.60

252: Yale -6.61

253: IUPUI -6.62

254: Sacred Heart -6.64

255: Saint Peter's -6.73

256: Grambling -6.74

257: Norfolk St. -6.77

258: Bellarmine -6.78

259: DePaul -6.79

260: Alabama St. -6.81

261: UAlbany -6.82

262: CSU Bakersfield -6.84

263: Florida A&M -6.88

264: Radford -6.93

265: Lafayette -6.95

266: Manhattan -7.02

267: Hampton -7.07

268: N.C. A&T -7.08

269: Western Ill. -7.10

270: Penn -7.18

271: Niagara -7.22

272: Columbia -7.27

273: Providence -7.32

274: Lindenwood -7.32

275: Bryant -7.33

276: St. Thomas (MN) -7.35

277: Kansas City -7.38

278: Coppin St. -7.38

279: Montana -7.39

280: Abilene Christian -7.49

281: St. Bonaventure -7.52

282: Holy Cross -7.54

283: Memphis -7.54

284: Cleveland St. -7.58

285: Portland St. -7.58

286: Howard -7.68

287: Texas Southern -7.74

288: Hartford -7.74

289: Bowling Green -7.78

290: Jackson St. -7.81

291: Tex. A&M-Commerce -7.81

292: Detroit Mercy -7.87

293: South Carolina St. -7.92

294: Southern Utah -7.97

295: N.C. Central -8.04

296: Valparaiso -8.06

297: North Dakota -8.15

298: Delaware St. -8.47

299: Alabama A&M -8.60

300: Stonehill -8.68

301: Southern U. -8.69

302: Alcorn -9.19

303: Ark.-Pine Bluff -9.23

304: Tennessee Tech -9.65

305: UMES -9.84

306: Mississippi Val. -10.49

My data for 2024 is terribly incomplete, with only 2053 games showing up in my data source, so I would recommend not using these, or if you do, retain the disclaimer.

Team Rankings and Defensive Strength (relative to best team = 0):

1: Oklahoma 0.00

2: UCLA -0.37

3: Missouri -0.38

4: Arkansas -0.53

5: Stanford -0.58

6: LSU -0.65

7: Oklahoma St. -0.71

8: Texas St. -0.83

9: Alabama -0.87

10: Utah -0.97

11: Oregon -1.11

12: Louisiana -1.15

13: Duke -1.24

14: Tennessee -1.36

15: Cal St. Fullerton -1.41

16: South Alabama -1.42

17: Nevada -1.45

18: Texas -1.51

19: Northwestern -1.52

20: Ole Miss -1.57

21: Texas A&M -1.57

22: Fresno St. -1.61

23: Washington -1.66

24: Ga. Southern -1.67

25: Baylor -1.72

26: Kentucky -1.74

27: Michigan -1.76

28: UCF -1.77

29: Virginia Tech -1.81

30: Auburn -1.94

31: Southern Ill. -1.97

32: Long Beach St. -2.06

33: Purdue -2.07

34: South Carolina -2.07

35: Mississippi St. -2.08

36: Boise St. -2.09

37: Arizona -2.10

38: Florida -2.12

39: Maryland -2.15

40: Syracuse -2.20

41: UT Martin -2.23

42: Michigan St. -2.26

43: Virginia -2.28

44: Lehigh -2.36

45: SFA -2.37

46: Buffalo -2.43

47: Creighton -2.49

48: California -2.51

49: Omaha -2.52

50: Seattle U -2.55

51: Florida St. -2.59

52: Kansas -2.59

53: Boston U. -2.62

54: Charlotte -2.62

55: ULM -2.64

56: Murray St. -2.64

57: North Ala. -2.65

58: Dayton -2.66

59: Grand Canyon -2.68

60: James Madison -2.69

61: Hawaii -2.71

62: Delaware -2.73

63: Jacksonville St. -2.77

64: Miami (OH) -2.77

65: UNLV -2.77

66: Eastern Ill. -2.80

67: Fla. Atlantic -2.82

68: Georgia -2.85

69: Indiana -2.85

70: Princeton -2.86

71: Dartmouth -2.86

72: Western Mich. -2.90

73: Utah Valley -2.91

74: San Diego St. -2.91

75: Loyola Chicago -2.91

76: UC Riverside -2.98

77: Tarleton St. -2.98

78: UNI -2.99

79: Louisiana Tech -3.00

80: New Mexico -3.02

81: Belmont -3.03

82: Wichita St. -3.06

83: Ohio St. -3.07

84: Iowa -3.11

85: Arizona St. -3.12

86: South Dakota -3.14

87: Villanova -3.16

88: Evansville -3.18

89: Central Ark. -3.19

90: Liberty -3.21

91: Wisconsin -3.21

92: Southeast Mo. St. -3.23

93: Rider -3.23

94: North Florida -3.26

95: Toledo -3.27

96: Cal Poly -3.29

97: Ohio -3.32

98: North Texas -3.35

99: UC Davis -3.35

100: Southern Miss. -3.36

101: Kansas City -3.37

102: Middle Tenn. -3.41

103: Bradley -3.43

104: NC State -3.45

105: Brown -3.48

106: Rhode Island -3.61

107: LMU (CA) -3.62

108: California Baptist -3.66

109: Santa Clara -3.68

110: Oregon St. -3.69

111: Rutgers -3.70

112: Minnesota -3.72

113: UConn -3.76

114: Queens (NC) -3.76

115: USC Upstate -3.77

116: Troy -3.78

117: North Carolina -3.79

118: FIU -3.79

119: SIUE -3.80

120: Saint Mary's (CA) -3.82

121: East Carolina -3.82

122: Tennessee Tech -3.82

123: Colorado St. -3.84

124: Army West Point -3.84

125: Saint Francis -3.85

126: Lindenwood -3.85

127: Coastal Carolina -3.88

128: Penn St. -3.89

129: BYU -3.90

130: Kennesaw St. -3.90

131: FGCU -3.95

132: UC Santa Barbara -3.98

133: Georgia Tech -3.98

134: Ball St. -3.99

135: Houston -4.03

136: Southern Ind. -4.03

137: St. John's (NY) -4.04

138: Clemson -4.06

139: Seton Hall -4.08

140: George Mason -4.10

141: Chattanooga -4.11

142: UNCW -4.12

143: Iowa St. -4.14

144: Sacred Heart -4.18

145: Louisville -4.18

146: Illinois -4.19

147: UIC -4.20

148: Missouri St. -4.21

149: Harvard -4.21

150: Sam Houston -4.22

151: Akron -4.23

152: Drake -4.23

153: UTEP -4.24

154: Robert Morris -4.25

155: Eastern Ky. -4.26

156: Pittsburgh -4.27

157: UT Arlington -4.30

158: Georgia St. -4.30

159: Campbell -4.32

160: Tulsa -4.33

161: Southern Utah -4.35

162: Georgetown -4.39

163: Binghamton -4.39

164: South Dakota St. -4.41

165: Marist -4.44

166: Manhattan -4.44

167: Indiana St. -4.46

168: Siena -4.48

169: Winthrop -4.50

170: Central Mich. -4.50

171: UAB -4.56

172: Utah Tech -4.58

173: Gardner-Webb -4.59

174: Saint Louis -4.60

175: Valparaiso -4.60

176: UAlbany -4.61

177: CSUN -4.63

178: Kent St. -4.63

179: Stony Brook -4.68

180: IU Indy -4.68

181: Utah St. -4.69

182: Boston College -4.70

183: Hofstra -4.72

184: Samford -4.73

185: Cleveland St. -4.74

186: NIU -4.78

187: Youngstown St. -4.81

188: Oakland -4.82

189: St. Thomas (MN) -4.83

190: San Jose St. -4.85

191: North Dakota -4.86

192: Stetson -4.86

193: New Mexico St. -4.88

194: Illinois St. -4.91

195: Notre Dame -4.91

196: Charleston So. -4.92

197: South Fla. -4.96

198: San Diego -5.01

199: Cornell -5.02

200: Penn -5.05

201: Niagara -5.06

202: Wofford -5.08

203: Mercer -5.09

204: North Dakota St. -5.10

205: Providence -5.11

206: N.C. A&T -5.12

207: App State -5.12

208: Yale -5.13

209: Bellarmine -5.25

210: Marshall -5.25

211: Massachusetts -5.31

212: Austin Peay -5.34

213: Western Caro. -5.40

214: Central Conn. St. -5.40

215: Bryant -5.42

216: UC San Diego -5.46

217: Monmouth -5.46

218: UMass Lowell -5.50

219: Merrimack -5.50

220: Canisius -5.51

221: Saint Joseph's -5.54

222: ETSU -5.55

223: Texas Tech -5.55

224: Nebraska -5.59

225: Northern Ky. -5.60

226: Pacific -5.60

227: Hampton -5.62

228: LIU -5.62

229: Fordham -5.68

230: Abilene Christian -5.75

231: Bowling Green -5.81

232: Elon -5.82

233: Holy Cross -5.83

234: Western Ky. -5.90

235: George Washington -5.91

236: Furman -5.95

237: Colgate -5.97

238: Tennessee St. -5.97

239: Jacksonville -6.06

240: Longwood -6.10

241: Columbia -6.10

242: Fairfield -6.28

243: Quinnipiac -6.37

244: Western Ill. -6.38

245: Wagner -6.39

246: Butler -6.42

247: UMBC -6.45

248: Purdue Fort Wayne -6.51

249: Lafayette -6.54

250: UNC Greensboro -6.56

251: DePaul -6.68

252: FDU -6.72

253: Iona -6.80

254: Maine -6.81

255: Towson -6.92

256: Lipscomb -6.94

257: South Carolina St. -6.96

258: Green Bay -7.06

259: Mount St. Mary's -7.09

260: Drexel -7.17

261: UTSA -7.27

262: Memphis -7.31

263: Detroit Mercy -7.32

264: Delaware St. -7.42

265: N.C. Central -7.46

266: Le Moyne -7.57

267: Stonehill -7.59

268: CSU Bakersfield -7.61

269: Saint Peter's -7.98

270: St. Bonaventure -8.11

271: Col. of Charleston -8.84

272: Morehead St. -8.97

273: UMES -8.99

2025

Team Rankings and Defensive Strength (relative to best team = 0):

1: Tennessee 0.00

2: Texas Tech -1.10

3: Texas -1.24

4: Alabama -1.53

5: Oklahoma -1.56

6: Florida -1.61

7: UCLA -1.62

8: Missouri -1.71

9: Florida St. -1.75

10: South Carolina -1.77

11: LSU -1.92

12: Clemson -1.92

13: Oklahoma St. -1.95

14: Arkansas -1.97

15: Texas A&M -1.98

16: Oregon -2.06

17: Arizona -2.11

18: Ole Miss -2.17

19: Nebraska -2.21

20: Washington -2.23

21: Georgia -2.40

22: Arizona St. -2.45

23: Virginia Tech -2.46

24: UCF -2.51

25: Grand Canyon -2.60

26: Mississippi St. -2.68

27: San Diego St. -2.73

28: Kentucky -2.74

29: Fla. Atlantic -2.80

30: Auburn -2.84

31: Virginia -2.85

32: Fresno St. -2.86

33: Omaha -2.88

34: Ga. Southern -2.90

35: Baylor -2.90

36: Nevada -2.93

37: Liberty -2.97

38: Texas St. -3.07

39: Stanford -3.08

40: Iowa -3.13

41: Kansas -3.16

42: BYU -3.19

43: Northwestern -3.21

44: Duke -3.33

45: Michigan -3.35

46: St. John's (NY) -3.36

47: Ohio St. -3.38

48: Purdue -3.51

49: California -3.52

50: Southeastern La. -3.56

51: North Carolina -3.60

52: Oregon St. -3.61

53: San Jose St. -3.62

54: South Fla. -3.62

55: North Florida -3.66

56: Wisconsin -3.67

57: Louisiana -3.67

58: Notre Dame -3.70

59: Syracuse -3.78

60: Western Ky. -3.79

61: NC State -3.79

62: Jacksonville St. -3.80

63: Tarleton St. -3.87

64: North Ala. -3.94

65: Seattle U -4.01

66: Southern Ill. -4.05

67: Saint Mary's (CA) -4.07

68: Idaho St. -4.07

69: Eastern Ky. -4.09

70: Belmont -4.10

71: McNeese -4.16

72: San Diego -4.20

73: Cal St. Fullerton -4.21

74: California Baptist -4.21

75: Louisville -4.22

76: Indiana -4.22

77: CSUN -4.24

78: Sam Houston -4.24

79: Central Ark. -4.27

80: Minnesota -4.28

81: Coastal Carolina -4.31

82: LMU (CA) -4.34

83: North Texas -4.34

84: Illinois St. -4.34

85: Louisiana Tech -4.34

86: Radford -4.34

87: UC Santa Barbara -4.34

88: Wofford -4.36

89: Long Beach St. -4.39

90: Illinois -4.41

91: UC Riverside -4.44

92: Georgia Tech -4.44

93: UC Davis -4.45

94: Austin Peay -4.45

95: Middle Tenn. -4.49

96: Wichita St. -4.49

97: FGCU -4.49

98: Santa Clara -4.52

99: James Madison -4.53

100: South Alabama -4.55

101: Hawaii -4.57

102: Sacramento St. -4.57

103: Ohio -4.58

104: UIW -4.58

105: Houston -4.62

106: UNLV -4.65

107: Harvard -4.66

108: Chattanooga -4.66

109: Binghamton -4.67

110: South Dakota St. -4.67

111: Delaware -4.72

112: UC San Diego -4.72

113: Southern Miss. -4.75

114: Utah -4.76

115: App State -4.80

116: FIU -4.80

117: St. Thomas (MN) -4.82

118: Mercer -4.82

119: ULM -4.83

120: Iowa St. -4.85

121: South Dakota -4.86

122: East Carolina -4.89

123: Maryland -4.91

124: Eastern Ill. -4.91

125: Boise St. -4.92

126: USC Upstate -4.92

127: New Mexico -4.94

128: Akron -4.98

129: Marshall -4.99

130: Brown -4.99

131: Central Mich. -5.01

132: Bradley -5.03

133: Drake -5.05

134: NIU -5.06

135: Miami (OH) -5.06

136: New Mexico St. -5.07

137: Dayton -5.07

138: Jacksonville -5.07

139: UAB -5.11

140: Indiana St. -5.14

141: Missouri St. -5.14

142: Princeton -5.16

143: Troy -5.18

144: Southeast Mo. St. -5.18

145: Boston U. -5.20

146: Boston College -5.20

147: Lamar University -5.23

148: UTEP -5.24

149: Weber St. -5.27

150: UT Arlington -5.28

151: Cal Poly -5.29

152: Bethune-Cookman -5.30

153: Stetson -5.31

154: Pittsburgh -5.31

155: Creighton -5.34

156: Penn St. -5.35

157: George Washington -5.35

158: Ball St. -5.35

159: Winthrop -5.35

160: Campbell -5.36

161: Villanova -5.38

162: Samford -5.39

163: Charlotte -5.41

164: Siena -5.42

165: Rutgers -5.42

166: Saint Louis -5.43

167: UNC Greensboro -5.45

168: Tulsa -5.46

169: Longwood -5.48

170: Providence -5.50

171: Utah Valley -5.55

172: Abilene Christian -5.55

173: Valparaiso -5.57

174: SFA -5.57

175: Florida A&M -5.59

176: UNCW -5.60

177: Marist -5.62

178: Butler -5.63

179: Seton Hall -5.64

180: Southern Ind. -5.66

181: Elon -5.68

182: North Dakota -5.72

183: Michigan St. -5.72

184: Col. of Charleston -5.73

185: Lindenwood -5.76

186: Fordham -5.78

187: Kennesaw St. -5.78

188: UConn -5.82

189: Tennessee Tech -5.82

190: Quinnipiac -5.82

191: Murray St. -5.85

192: Massachusetts -5.87

193: Georgia St. -5.90

194: Iona -5.92

195: George Mason -5.99

196: Saint Joseph's -6.01

197: Lipscomb -6.01

198: Southern Utah -6.01

199: SIUE -6.02

200: North Dakota St. -6.03

201: Hofstra -6.08

202: Fairfield -6.09

203: Army West Point -6.10

204: Nicholls -6.11

205: Pacific -6.17

206: Cleveland St. -6.22

207: UAlbany -6.23

208: UNI -6.23

209: Sacred Heart -6.23

210: Dartmouth -6.25

211: Bellarmine -6.31

212: Utah St. -6.31

213: Robert Morris -6.34

214: UT Martin -6.35

215: Columbia -6.35

216: Gardner-Webb -6.37

217: Memphis -6.51

218: Lehigh -6.52

219: Furman -6.52

220: Yale -6.53

221: Rider -6.55

222: Queens (NC) -6.55

223: FDU -6.58

224: Colorado St. -6.62

225: UTSA -6.65

226: Western Caro. -6.65

227: Loyola Chicago -6.66

228: Presbyterian -6.68

229: A&M-Corpus Christi -6.69

230: Purdue Fort Wayne -6.70

231: Houston Christian -6.70

232: Northern Colo. -6.73

233: Stony Brook -6.73

234: LIU -6.74

235: ETSU -6.75

236: Buffalo -6.77

237: Bowling Green -6.78

238: Toledo -6.82

239: Portland St. -6.82

240: CSU Bakersfield -6.84

241: Western Mich. -6.85

242: Georgetown -6.87

243: Green Bay -6.87

244: Northern Ky. -6.88

245: Howard -6.92

246: Jackson St. -6.93

247: Northwestern St. -6.96

248: Canisius -7.01

249: Oakland -7.11

250: Merrimack -7.14

251: Tennessee St. -7.15

252: Cornell -7.21

253: Central Conn. St. -7.23

254: Colgate -7.23

255: Evansville -7.24

256: IU Indy -7.25

257: UMass Lowell -7.32

258: Utah Tech -7.36

259: Prairie View -7.39

260: Montana -7.42

261: Saint Francis -7.45

262: Bucknell -7.48

263: Charleston So. -7.49

264: UMBC -7.55

265: Bryant -7.58

266: West Ga. -7.58

267: Alabama St. -7.63

268: DePaul -7.65

269: Detroit Mercy -7.68

270: Holy Cross -7.69

271: Southern U. -7.74

272: UIC -7.78

273: Rhode Island -7.80

274: East Texas A&M -7.85

275: Le Moyne -7.90

276: Alabama A&M -7.90

277: Delaware St. -7.91

278: Kansas City -7.98

279: Wagner -7.99

280: Morgan St. -8.00

281: Penn -8.19

282: Norfolk St. -8.19

283: Lafayette -8.25

284: South Carolina St. -8.25

285: Towson -8.26

286: Mount St. Mary's -8.32

287: Kent St. -8.33

288: Texas Southern -8.45

289: Youngstown St. -8.47

290: Maine -8.48

291: Manhattan -8.52

292: Monmouth -8.53

293: Stonehill -8.86

294: Grambling -9.22

295: Saint Peter's -9.30

296: N.C. A&T -9.39

297: Morehead St. -9.43

298: Western Ill. -9.49

299: Hampton -9.51

300: Mercyhurst -9.54

301: St. Bonaventure -9.64

302: Ark.-Pine Bluff -9.74

303: Niagara -9.79

304: N.C. Central -10.09

305: Coppin St. -10.71

306: Drexel -10.72

307: Alcorn -11.53

308: UMES -12.00

309: Mississippi Val. -13.56

This is information for a user who has built a WAR or WOBA calculator, to help them refine their calculations. If that’s not you, I doubt this will be something you want to engage with.

Quick description: best defense is listed as a 0, every other defense is listed as how far behind that best one it is, in terms of runs per game. So the same offense playing a defense that is -2 vs one that is -5, on average scores 3 more runs per game against the -5 defense. Sanity check for 2026: the best pitching teams are at the top.

2026:

Team Rankings and Defensive Strength (relative to best team = 0):

1: Tennessee 0.00

2: Nebraska -0.12

3: Alabama -0.35

4: Texas -0.38

5: Arkansas -0.60

6: Mississippi St. -0.64

7: LSU -0.69

8: Oklahoma -0.70

9: South Carolina -0.83

10: Texas Tech -0.90

11: Georgia -1.09

12: Texas A&M -1.13

13: Florida -1.35

14: Florida St. -1.53

15: Oregon -1.68

16: UCF -1.74

17: Virginia Tech -1.88

18: Missouri -1.92

19: Washington -1.94

20: Oklahoma St. -1.94

21: Southeastern La. -2.14

22: South Fla. -2.20

23: Virginia -2.21

24: Texas St. -2.26

25: Duke -2.29

26: Stanford -2.42

27: Arizona St. -2.46

28: Arizona -2.51

29: Marshall -2.54

30: Indiana -2.55

31: Baylor -2.55

32: ULM -2.56

33: Fla. Atlantic -2.60

34: Ole Miss -2.62

35: Grand Canyon -2.68

36: Georgia Tech -2.68

37: Omaha -2.73

38: Northwestern -2.81

39: Kansas -2.86

40: Belmont -2.90

41: Purdue -2.93

42: UCLA -2.93

43: Michigan -2.93

44: Utah -2.98

45: Clemson -2.99

46: Cal St. Fullerton -3.03

47: Louisiana -3.07

48: Western Ky. -3.11

49: St. Thomas (MN) -3.13

50: California Baptist -3.15

51: Kentucky -3.16

52: South Alabama -3.21

53: FIU -3.21

54: Nevada -3.37

55: LMU (CA) -3.38

56: East Carolina -3.40

57: Wichita St. -3.41

58: Penn St. -3.41

59: Auburn -3.47

60: Notre Dame -3.51

61: Jacksonville St. -3.52

62: NC State -3.53

63: Saint Mary's (CA) -3.60

64: Southern Ill. -3.67

65: Louisville -3.67

66: Minnesota -3.69

67: Sacramento St. -3.71

68: UNC Greensboro -3.72

69: UAB -3.80

70: Fresno St. -3.84

71: Troy -3.86

72: Ga. Southern -3.86

73: Louisiana Tech -3.89

74: Nicholls -3.89

75: Boise St. -3.92

76: Radford -3.93

77: Maryland -3.97

78: North Florida -4.01

79: Santa Clara -4.02

80: Iowa -4.05

81: Sam Houston -4.13

82: Stetson -4.13

83: Wisconsin -4.14

84: Hawaii -4.15

85: New Mexico -4.16

86: Central Ark. -4.20

87: UConn -4.23

88: Miami (OH) -4.27

89: North Texas -4.30

90: San Diego St. -4.32

91: Long Beach St. -4.36

92: Lamar University -4.37

93: Liberty -4.37

94: Tulsa -4.37

95: Southern Miss. -4.37

96: Georgia St. -4.40

97: Iowa St. -4.40

98: Samford -4.40

99: McNeese -4.42

100: North Ala. -4.42

101: Army West Point -4.46

102: Delaware -4.48

103: Boston U. -4.48

104: Princeton -4.49

105: North Carolina -4.49

106: Jacksonville -4.51

107: James Madison -4.56

108: Pacific -4.56

109: Charlotte -4.57

110: Murray St. -4.58

111: Idaho St. -4.62

112: Indiana St. -4.62

113: SFA -4.63

114: FGCU -4.64

115: Rutgers -4.68

116: Ohio St. -4.69

117: UC Santa Barbara -4.69

118: UNCW -4.70

119: Campbell -4.74

120: UNLV -4.75

121: Saint Joseph's -4.76

122: UIW -4.77

123: Fordham -4.79

124: Southern Utah -4.79

125: Michigan St. -4.80

126: Austin Peay -4.81

127: UC Davis -4.83

128: Middle Tenn. -4.83

129: Ohio -4.83

130: Illinois St. -4.84

131: Wofford -4.84

132: Columbia -4.89

133: North Dakota St. -4.90

134: Ball St. -4.91

135: Akron -4.95

136: San Jose St. -4.95

137: BYU -4.96

138: North Dakota -4.96

139: Creighton -4.99

140: Missouri St. -5.00

141: NIU -5.01

142: Utah Valley -5.03

143: Western Caro. -5.03

144: Eastern Ky. -5.08

145: UT Martin -5.09

146: Pittsburgh -5.10

147: UTSA -5.11

148: St. John's (NY) -5.11

149: San Diego -5.12

150: App State -5.12

151: Seattle U -5.14

152: Tarleton St. -5.14

153: Massachusetts -5.16

154: South Dakota -5.17

155: Colorado St. -5.19

156: Kansas City -5.21

157: UMass Lowell -5.21

158: Illinois -5.22

159: Oregon St. -5.24

160: Hofstra -5.25

161: Iona -5.26

162: Coastal Carolina -5.28

163: Syracuse -5.28

164: Eastern Ill. -5.28

165: Central Mich. -5.28

166: Cal Poly -5.30

167: Prairie View -5.31

168: South Dakota St. -5.32

169: Northwestern St. -5.32

170: Saint Louis -5.33

171: Loyola Chicago -5.35

172: California -5.35

173: ETSU -5.40

174: Providence -5.42

175: Valparaiso -5.43

176: Western Mich. -5.43

177: Southeast Mo. St. -5.43

178: Bowling Green -5.44

179: Lipscomb -5.46

180: Texas Southern -5.46

181: Portland St. -5.47

182: Lehigh -5.55

183: SIUE -5.55

184: Boston College -5.55

185: DePaul -5.56

186: Stony Brook -5.59

187: George Washington -5.60

188: UC San Diego -5.63

189: Howard -5.65

190: Winthrop -5.66

191: George Mason -5.67

192: Dayton -5.70

193: Toledo -5.70

194: Georgetown -5.71

195: Lindenwood -5.71

196: Siena -5.75

197: Harvard -5.77

198: Fairfield -5.77

199: Bryant -5.79

200: Southern Ind. -5.80

201: USC Upstate -5.80

202: New Mexico St. -5.85

203: Col. of Charleston -5.88

204: Evansville -5.88

205: Marist -5.89

206: Colgate -5.91

207: CSUN -5.92

208: Tennessee Tech -5.92

209: UAlbany -5.93

210: Rhode Island -5.96

211: Drake -5.96

212: Yale -6.00

213: Northern Colo. -6.07

214: Southern U. -6.10

215: Oakland -6.12

216: Chattanooga -6.16

217: Houston -6.18

218: Villanova -6.18

219: Longwood -6.19

220: Sacred Heart -6.19

221: UNI -6.25

222: UC Riverside -6.26

223: Queens (NC) -6.26

224: Elon -6.28

225: Brown -6.30

226: Presbyterian -6.31

227: Wagner -6.33

228: Towson -6.35

229: Florida A&M -6.35

230: Memphis -6.41

231: Butler -6.43

232: Houston Christian -6.47

233: LIU -6.47

234: Quinnipiac -6.49

235: Canisius -6.56

236: Montana -6.59

237: Youngstown St. -6.59

238: Bethune-Cookman -6.59

239: West Ga. -6.60

240: A&M-Corpus Christi -6.61

241: Utah St. -6.62

242: N.C. A&T -6.63

243: Monmouth -6.64

244: UT Arlington -6.65

245: Northern Ky. -6.67

246: Mount St. Mary's -6.77

247: Binghamton -6.78

248: Weber St. -6.78

249: UTEP -6.82

250: Gardner-Webb -6.82

251: Seton Hall -6.87

252: Kennesaw St. -6.91

253: Detroit Mercy -6.91

254: Kent St. -6.92

255: Utah Tech -7.07

256: Lafayette -7.09

257: Rider -7.16

258: UMBC -7.17

259: Buffalo -7.19

260: Mercer -7.21

261: Penn -7.21

262: CSU Bakersfield -7.23

263: Central Conn. St. -7.26

264: Charleston So. -7.27

265: Abilene Christian -7.27

266: Green Bay -7.34

267: Bellarmine -7.39

268: Jackson St. -7.39

269: Norfolk St. -7.40

270: Merrimack -7.48

271: Drexel -7.53

272: Bradley -7.60

273: South Carolina St. -7.63

274: Manhattan -7.69

275: Maine -7.70

276: Morehead St. -7.70

277: St. Bonaventure -7.76

278: New Haven -7.84

279: Robert Morris -7.88

280: UIC -7.93

281: Ark.-Pine Bluff -7.99

282: Bucknell -8.07

283: Holy Cross -8.14

284: Le Moyne -8.15

285: Dartmouth -8.16

286: Delaware St. -8.17

287: Alabama St. -8.18

288: Western Ill. -8.20

289: Stonehill -8.39

290: IU Indy -8.41

291: Cornell -8.41

292: FDU -8.44

293: East Texas A&M -8.60

294: Hampton -8.62

295: Mercyhurst -8.65

296: Furman -8.72

297: Alcorn -8.79

298: Saint Peter's -8.80

299: Morgan St. -8.83

300: Niagara -8.88

301: UMES -9.24

302: N.C. Central -9.25

303: Grambling -9.40

304: Tennessee St. -9.72

305: Coppin St. -9.76

306: Saint Francis -10.79

307: Alabama A&M -11.75

308: Mississippi Val. -12.64

My model compares all 308 teams against all the other teams, all at once, using the score differentials of ALL the games, taking into account how good each opponent is, to create a statistically optimal estimate of how good each team is at scoring runs while stopping the opponent from scoring runs. The output is what I call Run Strength, and each team gets a number. But the number is meaningless by itself, you have to compare the Run Strength of two teams to see how close they are. Also, Run Strength is expressed in terms of Runs per Game, since those are the numbers you see on the scoreboard, and everyone knows what a run means as opposed to just showing a percentage. As for comparing my top performers against what the NCAA’s top 32, I’ve linked my top 50 at the bottom, but 31 of the NCAA’s top 32 are in my top 38. So it’s not a perfect match-up, but it’s pretty close considering I’m not doing any manual tweaking, and just printing out what the math says.

Also, Run Strength is a negative number, and I did that partially to keep people from thinking each individual number meant something all by itself. If UCLA (Run Strength -1.02, which is only one run away from the top of the range) plays Oregon (Run Strength -3.10) a large number of times, we expect on average that UCLA will win by about 2 runs. That’s what Run Strength means, and the underlying math is set up to explicitly maximize the likelihood that’s the correct answer.

The league-wide standard deviation of the unmodeled performance is about 4.6 Runs per Game, so if you know how to use that information, feel free.

Anyway, I’m going through the 16 regionals here and posting the Run Strength difference between the top teams, and then at the bottom saying which ones seem pretty close and most likely to hold an upset. Note: I’m not considering the double-elimination aspect of this at all right now. Just know that the more games played, the better the Run Strength should describe what actually happens.

1 Alabama: SELA is about 4 runs weaker than the Tide, so not a likely upset.

2 Texas: I actually have Baylor as slightly stronger than Wisconsin (47 and 50 in my rankings), But Texas is stronger by about 6 runs. This regional is VERY unlikely to upset. This is the LEAST LIKELY upset mathematically, but I have faith that Mike White will find a way to suck so badly he can overcome the odds and leave Texas watching the Supers from the couch.

3 Oklahoma: I have Kansas and Michigan as nearly equal (34 and 35 in my rankings), both around 5.5 runs behind OU. Not a likely upset.

4 Nebraska: I have Louisville and Grand Canyon as nearly equal, at 28th and 29th in my rankings, both about 4.75 runs behind Jordy and the Huskers. Mathematically this is an unlikely upset, but Nebraska is trending up, and so I personally think this is the most certain Regional there is. I would bet my car on it, if winning meant I kept my car and got a nice sandwich out of the deal.

5 Arkansas: only 3.5 runs better than Washington. This is getting into the territory where an Arkansas single-game loss to Wash is around a 1-in-5 territory.

6 Florida: I have Georgia Tech as 0.8 runs better than Texas State, and only 3 runs behind Florida. If Florida gets upset, I think it will be by the unseeded Rambling Wrecks. But not particularly likely.

7 Tennessee: My model has Tennessee tied for 13th with Virginia Tech, and trending down across the season, which suggests that maybe the other rankings are done by humans who really like a good fastball, and think it excuses a lack of hitting. Anyway, I have Indiana as 1.6 runs better than Virginia, so that’s who I would watch here. And Indiana is only 1.35 runs behind Tennessee. So this is STRONG unintended-upset territory in my book. Mind you, Indiana is my model’s top pick that the NCAA didn’t seed, I have them at #21. And as already mentioned, my model doesn’t see Tennessee as all that strong. So I see an upset here as relatively likely. This is by far the place with the strongest disagreement between my model and what the NCAA / ESPN thinks is likely.

8 UCLA: I have South Carolina as 3.2 runs behind UCLA, so not a particularly strong chance of upset here

9 Florida State ‘University’: UCF is about 2.8 runs behind FSU, so not upset territory, but not as far as some others.

10 Georgia: Clemson is 3.65 runs behind, not a likely upset.

11 Texas Tech: my model has the Red Raiders as 4th overall just behind Texas, so I’m estimating them to be stronger than the NCAA thinks they are. They’re 3.75 runs better than Ole Miss, so I think not a likely upset, not nearly as likely as would be implied by their 11th seed.

12 Duke: I have Arizona as only 0.4 runs behind Duke. Per my model, this is basically a toss-up.

13 OK State: Stanford is only 0.5 runs behind the Cowgirls. Again, this is the edge of toss-up territory. Go Cardinal!

14 Oregon: Miss St is about 0.75 runs behind Oregon. Approaching toss-up territory. Quack.

15 TAMU: ASU is about 1.4 runs behind TAMU. So not really toss-up territory, but TAMU did manage to miraculously get a good seat on the couch for the Supers last year, so who knows?

16 LSU: My model puts LSU and VA Tech at 12th and 13th, with only 0.35 runs separating them. I guess it’s good that my model shows the most likely regional upset as the NCAA’s 16th host team, it means my model probably isn’t stupid.

So, the most likely upsets are the ones you’d expect, the 12th through 16th seeds. But TAMU doesn’t really belong there I don’t think, maybe that’s the committee punishing them for last year’s embarrassment? The most likely surprise-upset is Indiana over Tennessee, and I think the committee messed up by seeding Virginia instead of Indiana there. So my model mostly agrees with the NCAA seeding, except the Tennessee regional, where I think they’ve unknowingly set up an upset that’s more likely than they were intending. Also, I’ve watched exactly zero innings of Tennessee or Indiana softball this season, these predictions are based solely on game outcomes and linear algebra.

But all that said, my model does predict each individual regional’s most likely victor is the host. But it does not account for home field advantage at all.

My Top 50, along with how they line up with the NCAA’s seeding: https://old.reddit.com/r/CollegeSoftball/comments/1t8we0y/final_strengths_and_rankings_all_308_teams/ol4dww1/

I will be watching Nebraska to win impressively, Tennessee to squeak by possibly dropping a game, Texas to find a way to be embarrassed by Mike White, and the other real contenders to use this round as a warmup for the Supers.

Here’s my final regular-season strengths and rankings for all 308 NCAA D-1 teams (yes I know there’s one game still in progress, and maybe a few games on Sunday). I figured all the teams deserved to be listed at least once, so this should be all of them, maybe even the program that suspended their season.

Scroll down to the numbers if you think I’m too wordy and you already know what the numbers mean. Otherwise, read on until you’re ABSOLUTELY SURE I’m too wordy, and then look at the strength estimates and ranks, and tell me why I’m wrong, if you feel the need.

Run Strength is expressed in Runs per Game, and it is a combination of how good a team is at scoring runs, AND how good that team is at preventing opponents from scoring runs. And it considers ALL 308 teams, how good each of them is on average, and the results of all 7,565 games this season, all at the same time. To use the Run Strength to maybe predict something, pick two teams and subtract their Run Strength values, that’s the expected outcome, on average. So UCLA (-1.02) vs Oregon (-3.1) would tell us to expect UCLA to win by about 2 runs, on average.

Tweaks used to calculate this: winning against a team that is much less good gets a much-reduced Relevance weighting for that game, but losing to a worse team keeps the Relevance at 100%. So getting upset is always fully relevant. Also, winning a game by more than 10 runs results in that score being treated as if it were just a victory by a margin 10, so no extra credit for demolishing a team by 25. And this version has pretty strong weighting towards recent games, using an exponential decay, where the half-life of a game is 35 days. So the early February games don’t count for much now, 90 days later. And early April games only count about half as much as the performances this weekend.

There is of course noise in the strength estimates because there’s noise (randomness) in the sport itself. If you think a game was an upset, and my Run Strength numbers say it was an upset, then yeah, that means it probably was an upset, and it probably would happen differently if those teams faced each other a bunch of times. This can’t PREDICT upsets at all, but it can tell you afterwards just how bit (statistically unlikely) that upset was. (OU’s loss to Georgia by 5 was roughly a 1-in-100 outcome, for example). That’s not a shortcoming of the sport or my strength estimator, that’s, well, that’s why the players show up, and why the rest of us bother to watch and cheer. But overall my strength estimator is good at estimating a team’s average strength to about 0.5 runs per game, but there’s still 4.6 runs per game of randomness on top of that. Overall, I’m just happy that I can express the strength in terms of Runs per Game, because that’s a lot more meaningful than something like RPI.

Yes, OU is still at the top and yes, they are trending down. Yes, Nebraska is closing in (go Jordy!), Yes, Texas has moved up. But this isn’t like 2022 and 2023. Those years, OU had a full 3-run lead in Run Strength going into the regionals (per my calculation method). This year, it is half a run (0.55 Run Strength lead over #2 Nebraska), and OU is more noisy (randomly good, randomly bad) than anybody else in the top 10. I think that’s going to cause them problems, since run-ruling a top-10 team is nice, but not if you then lose to a 12th-ish ranked team the next week.

It should be a fun postseason! Ask questions if you have any, or if you want to see what the results are if I turn off any of the tweaks I mentioned.

Team Rankings and Run Strength (relative to best team = 0):

1: Oklahoma 0.00

2: Nebraska -0.55

3: Texas -0.91

4: Texas Tech -0.94

5: UCLA -1.02

6: Arkansas -1.14

7: Alabama -1.33

8: Georgia -1.65

9: Florida St. -1.87

10: Florida -2.02

11: Texas A&M -2.20

12: LSU -2.39

13: Virginia Tech -2.75

14: Tennessee -2.75

15: Oregon -3.10

16: Duke -3.41

17: Arizona St. -3.57

18: Oklahoma St. -3.62

19: Arizona -3.80

20: Mississippi St. -3.87

21: Indiana -4.10

22: Stanford -4.15

23: South Carolina -4.23

24: Washington -4.61

25: Ole Miss -4.65

26: UCF -4.68

27: Georgia Tech -5.00

28: Louisville -5.23

29: Grand Canyon -5.28

30: Southeastern La. -5.30

31: Clemson -5.32

32: Missouri -5.32

33: Northwestern -5.38

34: Kansas -5.42

35: Michigan -5.63

36: Auburn -5.69

37: Virginia -5.71

38: Texas St. -5.82

39: Penn St. -5.99

40: Omaha -6.03

41: Utah -6.04

42: Wichita St. -6.12

43: Purdue -6.18

44: North Carolina -6.27

45: Nevada -6.28

46: Jacksonville St. -6.63

47: Baylor -6.77

48: Kentucky -6.83

49: Marshall -6.83

50: Wisconsin -6.83

51: Iowa St. -6.90

52: South Fla. -6.96

53: Saint Mary's (CA) -6.98

54: Fla. Atlantic -6.99

55: Ohio St. -7.05

56: South Alabama -7.26

57: Cal St. Fullerton -7.30

58: Belmont -7.33

59: Louisiana -7.37

60: Iowa -7.40

61: NC State -7.47

62: ULM -7.54

63: St. Thomas (MN) -7.55

64: Boston U. -7.61

65: Rutgers -7.61

66: UConn -7.70

67: California Baptist -7.75

68: James Madison -7.86

69: Western Ky. -7.92

70: McNeese -8.07

71: Notre Dame -8.12

72: FIU -8.15

73: Louisiana Tech -8.17

74: Charlotte -8.26

75: New Mexico -8.26

76: Troy -8.36

77: UNLV -8.38

78: LMU (CA) -8.40

79: Central Ark. -8.43

80: Liberty -8.48

81: Southern Miss. -8.49

82: Ohio -8.50

83: Southern Ill. -8.56

84: UIW -8.69

85: Boise St. -8.69

86: North Ala. -8.70

87: Miami (OH) -8.75

88: BYU -8.78

89: Idaho St. -8.81

90: Stetson -8.83

91: Fresno St. -8.85

92: UNC Greensboro -8.85

93: App State -8.91

94: Delaware -9.04

95: Hawaii -9.05

96: Nicholls -9.06

97: North Florida -9.08

98: UC Santa Barbara -9.08

99: North Texas -9.09

100: East Carolina -9.09

101: Jacksonville -9.17

102: Lamar University -9.18

103: Creighton -9.19

104: Sacramento St. -9.19

105: San Diego St. -9.19

106: North Dakota St. -9.21

107: UAB -9.28

108: Santa Clara -9.28

109: Ga. Southern -9.36

110: Maryland -9.37

111: Akron -9.38

112: New Mexico St. -9.38

113: Tulsa -9.43

114: SFA -9.51

115: Houston -9.53

116: Oregon St. -9.53

117: Samford -9.55

118: California -9.56

119: Murray St. -9.63

120: Tarleton St. -9.68

121: UNI -9.68

122: Long Beach St. -9.69

123: Minnesota -9.78

124: Princeton -9.81

125: Coastal Carolina -9.81

126: Sam Houston -10.03

127: Utah Valley -10.07

128: Campbell -10.09

129: Providence -10.09

130: Austin Peay -10.10

131: Colorado St. -10.17

132: Georgia St. -10.21

133: Boston College -10.23

134: Illinois St. -10.25

135: UT Arlington -10.34

136: South Dakota St. -10.37

137: Seattle U -10.40

138: UTSA -10.41

139: NIU -10.45

140: Western Mich. -10.50

141: Eastern Ill. -10.50

142: Wofford -10.53

143: UNCW -10.56

144: Central Mich. -10.56

145: UC San Diego -10.60

146: Butler -10.68

147: UC Davis -10.72

148: Ball St. -10.74

149: Pittsburgh -10.78

150: Western Caro. -10.88

151: FGCU -10.91

152: Syracuse -10.91

153: Missouri St. -10.92

154: Pacific -10.92

155: Army West Point -10.93

156: San Jose St. -10.94

157: Northern Colo. -10.97

158: Middle Tenn. -11.03

159: Eastern Ky. -11.07

160: South Dakota -11.10

161: Illinois -11.11

162: USC Upstate -11.13

163: San Diego -11.17

164: Michigan St. -11.21

165: Northwestern St. -11.24

166: Fordham -11.25

167: Columbia -11.25

168: Hofstra -11.36

169: Montana -11.37

170: Radford -11.40

171: North Dakota -11.43

172: St. John's (NY) -11.50

173: Southern Utah -11.51

174: UT Martin -11.59

175: Marist -11.73

176: Massachusetts -11.76

177: Memphis -11.77

178: Saint Louis -11.87

179: Loyola Chicago -11.91

180: Chattanooga -11.96

181: Prairie View -12.01

182: Southeast Mo. St. -12.03

183: CSUN -12.03

184: Kansas City -12.10

185: Colgate -12.12

186: Portland St. -12.12

187: Harvard -12.19

188: Lehigh -12.19

189: Brown -12.20

190: Lindenwood -12.22

191: Dayton -12.27

192: Valparaiso -12.29

193: Bowling Green -12.31

194: Winthrop -12.33

195: Bryant -12.34

196: Saint Joseph's -12.34

197: Indiana St. -12.39

198: DePaul -12.42

199: George Washington -12.46

200: Gardner-Webb -12.47

201: Georgetown -12.48

202: Southern U. -12.49

203: Utah Tech -12.58

204: Utah St. -12.67

205: Col. of Charleston -12.69

206: Toledo -12.71

207: Evansville -12.72

208: Drake -12.76

209: Robert Morris -12.78

210: Queens (NC) -12.78

211: SIUE -12.84

212: Lipscomb -12.86

213: Villanova -12.87

214: Cal Poly -12.87

215: A&M-Corpus Christi -12.87

216: Howard -12.89

217: George Mason -12.95

218: ETSU -12.95

219: Florida A&M -12.97

220: Yale -12.98

221: Buffalo -13.00

222: Binghamton -13.01

223: Abilene Christian -13.05

224: Elon -13.07

225: Youngstown St. -13.18

226: Bradley -13.21

227: Mercer -13.23

228: UTEP -13.23

229: Texas Southern -13.25

230: Green Bay -13.26

231: Iona -13.34

232: Presbyterian -13.35

233: Kent St. -13.35

234: Tennessee Tech -13.36

235: Fairfield -13.37

236: UAlbany -13.48

237: UIC -13.54

238: Weber St. -13.57

239: Rhode Island -13.62

240: UMass Lowell -13.62

241: Seton Hall -13.66

242: Quinnipiac -13.78

243: Houston Christian -13.79

244: West Ga. -13.81

245: Southern Ind. -13.85

246: Cornell -14.04

247: Stony Brook -14.05

248: Longwood -14.06

249: UMBC -14.13

250: Sacred Heart -14.16

251: Northern Ky. -14.18

252: Drexel -14.21

253: Kennesaw St. -14.23

254: Oakland -14.27

255: Bethune-Cookman -14.29

256: Penn -14.34

257: UC Riverside -14.39

258: Rider -14.51

259: Dartmouth -14.65

260: Towson -14.67

261: LIU -14.69

262: Mount St. Mary's -14.76

263: Alabama St. -14.80

264: Siena -14.83

265: Monmouth -14.83

266: CSU Bakersfield -14.87

267: Central Conn. St. -15.00

268: Lafayette -15.03

269: Furman -15.15

270: N.C. A&T -15.16

271: Bellarmine -15.24

272: Charleston So. -15.43

273: Canisius -15.48

274: Jackson St. -15.64

275: Delaware St. -15.86

276: Detroit Mercy -15.88

277: Morehead St. -15.99

278: Maine -16.03

279: Wagner -16.08

280: Western Ill. -16.24

281: IU Indy -16.26

282: St. Bonaventure -16.33

283: Manhattan -16.42

284: South Carolina St. -16.45

285: East Texas A&M -16.78

286: Bucknell -16.83

287: Merrimack -17.04

288: FDU -17.22

289: Hampton -17.22

290: Tennessee St. -17.23

291: Ark.-Pine Bluff -17.35

292: Norfolk St. -17.45

293: Morgan St. -17.61

294: Holy Cross -17.67

295: Grambling -17.68

296: Stonehill -18.07

297: Alcorn -18.16

298: Le Moyne -18.27

299: Niagara -18.28

300: New Haven -18.56

301: Saint Peter's -19.00

302: Coppin St. -19.34

303: Mercyhurst -19.35

304: N.C. Central -19.72

305: UMES -19.75

306: Alabama A&M -20.31

307: Saint Francis -20.65

308: Mississippi Val. -24.80

So I’ve been posting estimates of the strengths of the top 50 teams these last few weeks, and that is based entirely on the game outcomes. One of the things I mentioned is that after estimating strengths of all the teams, there’s always some noise left over. And that noise looks like a Bell curve (normal distribution, Gaussian, whatever you want to call it).

It’s interesting because if you flip a coin a bunch of times (let’s say 100 times) and then you count the number of times it comes up head, and you subtract 50 (which is the amount of heads you’d expect from 100 coin flips), you’ll get some number, mostly between negative 20 and positive 20. Let’s say that this series of 100 coin flips represents 1 softball game.

So if we play this 100-coin-flip game about 7500 times (that’s the number of games in the regular season this year) we get statistics that look REALLY close to the random noise statistics from D1 this season.

If we’re try to tweak our simulated coin-flip game to make the statistics line up better, we find that it takes an simulated game of 88 coin flips to match the amount of random noise in a game outcome in D1 this year.

So… does that 88 coin flips MEAN anything? Maybe. I think it’s interesting that the number seems fairly close to the number of competitive swings in a game.

And it’s in the same ballpark as 1/3 the number of pitches per game. So just appreciating that the amount of randomness in the game corresponds to something really close to the number of physical engagements between the teams. But I think saying it relates to the number of competitive swings is a little better than number of pitches.

Anyway, musings on the nature of sport, statistics, luck, telling me to drink more on an early Wednesday as Auburn tries to get past TAMU, or which mascot is the cutest, are all relevant.

Oop, 3-run homer for Auburn in the top of the 7th to break the tie! The coins are landing War Eagle right now!

Tennessee and Arkansas are still trending down significantly (Tennessee more so), while LSU, Nebraska, TAMU, Oregon, VA Tech, FSU are trending up (FSU, LSU, TAMU most significantly).

Run Strength estimated for all teams, then ranked accordingly, top 50 presented here. Run Strength numbers means if a -2 Run Strength team plays a -5 Run Strength team, statistical expectation is for the -2 team to win by three runs on average (you just do the subtraction). The strength is provided specifically to make it clear at a glance how crowded the field is in any range.

For example, #2 through #8 are closer together than #2 is to #1.

Team Rankings and Run Strength (relative to best team = 0):

1: Oklahoma 0.00

2: Nebraska -1.06

3: Texas -1.29

4: Texas Tech -1.44

5: UCLA -1.44

6: Arkansas -1.44

7: Alabama -1.99

8: Florida -2.05

9: Georgia -2.08

10: LSU -2.18

11: Texas A&M -2.50

12: Florida St. -3.01

13: Tennessee -3.28

14: Virginia Tech -3.39

15: Oregon -3.42

16: Duke -3.69

17: Oklahoma St. -3.99

18: Arizona -4.04

19: Stanford -4.20

20: Arizona St. -4.21

21: Mississippi St. -4.22

22: South Carolina -4.48

23: Indiana -4.80

24: UCF -4.80

25: Washington -4.80

26: Northwestern -5.01

27: Ole Miss -5.36

28: Kansas -5.36

29: Clemson -5.60

30: Missouri -5.62

31: Louisville -5.80

32: Georgia Tech -5.94

33: Southeastern La. -6.12

34: Omaha -6.14

35: Grand Canyon -6.18

36: Virginia -6.39

37: Michigan -6.56

38: Purdue -6.70

39: Texas St. -6.76

40: Utah -6.81

41: Jacksonville St. -6.91

42: Wichita St. -6.97

43: Auburn -7.01

44: Penn St. -7.05

45: Nevada -7.13

46: North Carolina -7.34

47: Iowa St. -7.34

48: Baylor -7.51

49: Kentucky -7.56

50: Ohio St. -7.63

For those that have had a statistics class recently, the random noise (one standard deviation) on the score differentials after taking the strength estimates into account is 4.6 runs per game, for all of D-1. And the residuals are VERY Gaussian, at least for D-1 in aggregate. If you know how to use that number, do feel free to use it.

This is a Least Squares model with weighting adjusted for relevance (teams of similar strength have higher relevance when playing each other), and more recent games have a higher weighting (half-life = 35 days).

I built a ranking model for use with NCAA D1 softball. My model works based on run differential, and gives each team a metric I call ‘Run Strength’ which is a relative thing. I set the top Run Strength to zero, and every other team’s strength is less than that. If a team of Run Strength -5 plays a team of Run Strength -2, the model expects the -2 team to win by 3 runs per game (on average). You just do the subtraction to find the statistically expected result.

I added a few tweaks to this, the first was adding Relevance to game results. This helps teams be ranked preferentially by how they perform against teams of similar strength.

Today I gave the model the ability to forget. Specifically, as a game gets further into the past, its weight drops off, in an exponential decay. Right now, the half-life is 35 days.

And running the model that way allowed Nebraska to pop into 2nd place, which is where ESPN has them right now. That makes sense because Nebraska has been over-performing lately. In the top 10, they’re the only team strongly trending up. Tennessee and Arkansas are the only Top 10 teams strongly tending down (twice as strongly as Nebraska is trending up). The 11th through 15th place teams are all trending up as strongly as Nebraska is. That seems maybe surprising that they’re clumped together like that. Maybe. ;-)

Also, the Arkansas at Texas game that starts in 20 minutes should be good. My prediction for that game is that Mike White will embarrass himself against a top-10 team, and his talented players will cover for him. Like usual.

Anyway, here’s my top 50:

Team Rankings and Run Strength (relative to best team = 0):

1: Oklahoma 0.00

2: Nebraska -1.23

3: UCLA -1.26

4: Texas Tech -1.47

5: Arkansas -1.65

6: Texas -1.75

7: Florida -1.86

8: Alabama -1.98

9: Georgia -2.93

10: Tennessee -3.39

11: Florida St. -3.40

12: LSU -3.41

13: Texas A&M -3.45

14: Virginia Tech -3.90

15: Oregon -4.15

16: Duke -4.17

17: Arizona -4.30

18: Mississippi St. -4.43

19: Oklahoma St. -4.56

20: Arizona St. -4.79

21: Stanford -4.83

22: Indiana -4.97

23: Northwestern -5.05

24: Washington -5.09

25: UCF -5.16

26: South Carolina -5.20

27: Kansas -5.80

28: Louisville -5.99

29: Ole Miss -6.05

30: Clemson -6.05

31: Omaha -6.28

32: Missouri -6.32

33: Georgia Tech -6.37

34: Auburn -6.46

35: Southeastern La. -6.59

36: Grand Canyon -6.73

37: Michigan -6.85

38: Virginia -6.87

39: Nevada -6.96

40: Purdue -7.12

41: Penn St. -7.46

42: Wisconsin -7.50

43: Texas St. -7.53

44: Wichita St. -7.53

45: Utah -7.56

46: Jacksonville St. -7.72

47: Iowa St. -7.76

48: North Carolina -7.87

49: Kentucky -7.89

50: Fla. Atlantic -7.99