How do you decide to over betting turn?
Why does betting 150% pot on the turn in a heads up pot could accomplish more than betting 75% on the turn and river? Wouldn't betting that large isolate your range against a nutted range that would be behind the hands that over bet? In the scenario that I included it is a dry and an ace high board so I don't really imagine anything below Ax to call a massive turn over bet.
If it were a wet two tone board by the turn would a turn over bet be used here? How would do you decide if a turn is worth over betting?
What are the differences and contrasts between over betting turn compared to betting 75% on both streets?
I got it from this example:
You’re playing a standard $1/$2 cash game with $200 stacks.
The action folds to you on the Button. You hold AQ and raise to $6.
A solid player flats in the Big Blind.
The flop comes As5d3h. Big Blind checks and calls a small c-bet of around 33% pot.
The turn is the 9c.
Your opponent checks to you. You have a clear value betting hand.
What’s your bet size?
- A) 33% pot
- B) 50% pot
- C) 75% pot
- D) 135% pot
Scroll past the countdown once you’ve locked in your answer.
The correct answer is D. The best play is to bet very big, around 150% pot.
Your hand is really strong right now, with less than 10% of hands in Big Blind’s range that are ahead of you. Betting 75% pot is a decent option, but very often you’re going to find yourself in a close spot between value betting and checking back on the river, especially against a solid player.
While betting like that extracts value from more hands, but it doesn’t maximize the amount chips it extracts from your opponent and also gives him more of a chance to hit a two-pair or trips on the river, as he’s not drawing dead with his weaker pairs.
By overbetting, you are making his bluff-catchers pay a way bigger price to hit their lucky two-pair or trip outs and make it very easy on yourself to check back on the river. By overbetting on the turn, you are essentially getting all your value in one street rather than two, with the added benefit of clarity.
People are very straightforward against these bet sizes, so getting raised will mean that you are clearly behind. This means that you’ll not end up making a dubious call against a raise, one that you’d otherwise regret later, after having bet 75% pot.
This is a very cool spot. Hope you learned something from it!