u/Unusual-Page8312

I know that there is a lot of uncertainty and frustration out there in regards to Cerenome and REYOBIQ. So I have been doing some research to trying to find a drug that went through a similar process.

Obviously I couldn't find an exact match but I was looking for a drug that had similar market characteristics, qualities, and metrics. I was looking for a drug that treated a fatal or life shortening disease, received Orphan Drug Designation, had fast track approval, similar market value size, and little to no competitors.

Now I know that there are multiple drugs out there that meet these specifications, but the one drug that caught my attention that was very similar as I researched it was Trikafta by Vertex Pharmaceuticals. Trikafta treats cystic fibrosis.

Trikafta Timeline:

Jan/Feb 2018 - Vertex released its initial Phase 2 results for Trikafta.

Feb 2018 - Fast Track Designation

Apr 2018 - Vertex announces Trikafta Phase 3 initiation and Vertex releases more Phase 2 data.

May 2018 - Breakthrough Therapy Designation based on strong early clinical data.

Aug 2018 - Orphan Drug Designation for treatment of cystic fibrosis.

Mid 2018 - Trikafta in Phase 3

Jul 2019 - NDA Submission

Aug 2019 - NDA acceptance + Priority Review

Oct 2019 - FDA Approval Received

Again this is just to give you an idea of what could happen, because the FDA has processes and procedures that they follow, so we can look at drugs in the past and see what they went through, and how long it took to get an idea of what we might be looking at time wise in the future.

Now IF we were to assume a similar timeline for REYOBIQ based on what Trikafta went through here is what I am seeing as a Possible Timeline.

REYOBIQ Possible Timeline:

Aug 2026 and Nov 2026 - Cerenome releases initial Phase 2 data on REYOBIQ for LM and GBM

Dec 2026 - Fast Track Designation for REYOBIQ

Jan 2027 - FDA meeting

Feb 2027 - Cerenome announces Phase 3 initiation

May 2027 - REYOBIQ in Phase 3

Jul 2028 - NDA Submission

Aug 2028 - NDA acceptance + Priority Review

Oct 2028 - FDA Approval Received

Trikafta currently generates $10-12 billion in revenue for Vertex Pharmaceuticals and controls about 85% of the cystic fibrosis market nearly 7 years after FDA approval.

I see Cerenome and REYOBIQ doing something very similar but what do you all think?

Goodbye to the Plus Therapeutics Community. Talk to you all on Monday in the new Cerenome Community.

The Future Looks Bright for Cerenome.

I just want to post about Plus Therapeutics potential future value and if my math is wrong or my analysis is flawed then please correct me. This is not financial advice. Please do your own due diligence.

Ok now for reference, the numbers and statistics that I will be using come from page 12 in the 2026 investor presentation that is posted on Plus Therapeutics website.

First let's start with looking at CNSide:

Number of CNS Patients = 500k

Number of Tests per Patient = 4.3

Cost per Test = $3,000

500,000 * 4.3 * 3,000 = $6.45B Market Value

Now let's assume that Plus Therapeutics captures 10% (conservative % I think) of the $6.45B market which brings in a revenue of $645M annually. 20% would be $1.29B but let's use the conservative 10%. So that's a estimated revenue of $645M annually from just the CNSide. Russell Bradley the president of CNSIDE said that they're hiring a lot of sales folks so this should be increasing especially with the reimbursement code now available.

Now let's look at the REYOBIQ side:

Again these numbers and stats come from page 12 in the investor presentation that they posted on the company website back in January 2026

Number of Patients = 56,250

Number of Doses per Patient = 3

Cost per Dose = $100,000

56,250 * 3 * $100,000 = $16.875B Market Value

Again let's assume that Plus Therapeutics captures 10% of the $16.875B market which brings in a revenue of $1.6875B annually. Please note that never get 100% market share because some folks don't want treatment, or their insurance policy won't cover them for this type of treatment. Which is why the 10% market share is used.

CNSide Potential Annual Revenue = $645M

REYOBIQ Potential Annual Revenue = $1.6875B

So we have a potential total annually revenue of $2.3325B.

Now let's look at how we value a company making an estimated $2.3325B in annual revenue. As I research I am seeing 3×-8× revenue on the low end and 10×-15×+ on the high end. Considering that REYOBIQ now has orphan drug designation, and there are no other FDA approved treatments on the market. I think we could safely use the 10× multiplier. That 10× is on the low end of the higher end.

So $2.3325B * 10 times revenue = $23.325B estimated potential company value for Plus Therapeutics.

Now let's look at the stock price if we have an assumed $23.325B company valuation $23.325B ÷ 6.88M (# of shares outstanding) = $3,390.26 per share Now, I know that seems like a huge jump considering where the stock is currently trading at, but that is what I am calculating. We are making some assumptions like Plus Therapeutics capturing 10% of the market and REYOBIQ receiving FDA approval. But a lot of things are lining up for this to be a reality. But also keep in mind that all of this will not happen in this year or next year and if it does happen in 2028, it will happen probably at the end of 2028. But everybody should know and understand that this stock will go up and down and this is a 1+ year investment. So those are my thoughts on what I am seeing based on the financials and statistics. Please feel free to research and verify these numbers and even ask AI things like "what's the average cost to treat a CNS cancer patient?". You will see that these numbers may vary a little but are within the ballpark. So you can verify and enter in the data and parameters in AI and see what it tells you.

Now let me be fair so this posting is not just one sided. There are a few concerns that I want to list, and so everybody is aware. I see 3 potential concerns or downsides:

1. The potential that REYOBIQ doesn't get approved. Highly unlikely, in my opinion, based on a few factors that we've seen from the FDA already like giving Orphan Drug Designation or the FDA being happy with what they see so far and saying that this REYOBIQ could qualify for accelerated approval. But about 50% or so of drugs in Phase 3 don't get approved.
2. Cash Burn. As they bring on more senior people to implement everything and as Russell Bradley said on the CNSide they are hiring a lot more salespeople to sell the product and as a result, that means they're spending more money, even quicker.
3. More shares being diluted. With them burning more cash at a faster rate for a variety of reasons, they may have to raise more cash, and one of the levers that they might have to pull, I'm not saying that they will pull it, but if they have to, they might dilute the shares in order to raise more cash to get them to the finish line. I think that they are waiting to see how much revenue they could generate from the CNSide which went into effect 7/1/26. If they're not able to generate enough revenue to sustain their operations going forward then, they may have to fall back on raising capital by diluting some shares. It is not something that they want to do, but they have it in their back pocket just in case. It's that old saying, you gotta spend money to make money. I also believe that the recent decline just this month alone are from people selling out of fear that they will dilute their shares.

What do you all think? I believe in this company, and I think there are far more positives than negatives. So I am putting my money where my mouth is and buying more shares. Happy Investing.