like Churchill spending much of the 1930s warning that Nazi Germany was rapidly rearming and becoming a major threat while many British politicians thought he was paranoid or stuck in a WWI mindset, only for WWII to break out and make his warnings look terrifyingly accurate.
I’ve been thinking about this a lot because the Arctic feels like the obvious answer. If sea ice keeps shrinking, routes like the Northern Sea Route along Russia or even transpolar shortcuts could make shipping between Europe and Asia way faster than going through the Suez Canal. That would instantly make places like the Arctic coast of Russia, Alaska, northern Canada, and Greenland much more strategically important, even for ports, refueling stops, and military presence. For example, a container ship going from Rotterdam to Shanghai could potentially shave thousands of kilometers off its journey by going north instead of through the Mediterranean and Indian Ocean, which completely changes which regions sit on “key chokepoints” of global trade.