Cost of Precigen $460,000
PGEN treatment is priced at four vials at $115,000 each.
Last I heard, at two different earnings calls, INO had reached a consensus with providers of a fair price of $360,000 for one year of treatment. It did not include additional vaccinations if memory serves me correct. Now market research and analyst estimates (such as those from Citizens JMP) project a list price of $200,000 to $500,000 for the Inovio treatment course, which typically consists of multiple doses. Sure does making share price projections complicated. I guess we will have to set up a spread sheet formula and play what if?
Additionally, estimates of cases in the US are all over the place and seem to indicate they really do not have a handle on it. I have been seeing estimates as high as 20,000-27,000 when 14,000 (c.1995 study) was commonly quoted not long ago.
So multiply patients treated x 3107 price and then divide by 109 shares outstanding (includes current non diluted) and that will give you revenue for 3107. Bearing in mind their loss last year was $87M.
Lets play:
Consider eventually treating 20% of 20,000 patients in the US in one year.
4,000 patients @ $360,000
Revenue: $1.4B
Expenses: (2025) $87M/yr
Profit: $1,353,000,000 (does not include the cost of sales and manufacturing)
EPS: $12.41
Initally, the number of patients treated will be around 1000 for the first year according to statements made at earnings reports made last year. One can wonder if that will change. Precigen enrolled 200 between Nov. and Jan.
INO 3701 will make this company profitable if the no unforseen FDA issues arise and the release is managed properly. Therein lies the rub... potentially.