RB Swan Lake casting predictions
After the trauma of last year when after I did the predictions too early, I deliberately held onto the Swan Lake casting predictions as late as possible, even after I felt pretty confident, in case something happens. And thank god I did, the addition of the second Manon run did impact my thought process a bit. I ended up not changing my predictions, but I rewrote bits of my analysis below.
Once again, this is what I predict the casting will be, not what I'll do if I'm in charge of casting.
This run has 32 shows. I’m guessing 12 pairs, assuming no one will double up. In no particular order:
- Marianela Nuñez / Vadim Muntagirov
- Natalia Osipova / *Patricio Revé
- Francesca Hayward / Cesar Corrales
- Akane Takada / Steven McRae
- Yasmine Nagdhi / Matthew Ball
- Fumi Kaneko / William Bracewell
- Mayara Magri / Reece Clarke
- Anna Rose O’Sullivan / Marcelino Sambé
- Mariko Sasaki / *Calvin Richardson
- Claire Calvert / Nicol Edmonds
- *Melissa Hamilton / Ryoichi Hirano
- *Marianna Tsembenhoi / Joseph Sissens
Lauren Cuthbertson said somewhere that she's done with O/O but later said never say never, but based on her rep in the last two seasons I think it's extremely unlikely. Sarah Lamb turns 46 this year and she's not dancing Nutcracker, so I don’t think she’s dancing O/O either. McRae wasn't cast in the 2024 run because he tore his ACL, but he danced in the 2022 run. Same as what I've said in previous predictions, if he thinks he can dance it, he'll be cast, whether he actually makes it on stage is a different question. Hirano will be 43, he isn't dancing Manon in the autumn but he is dancing Nutcracker and I don't know whether that's a sign, but I'm still expecting him to dance Siegfried. Calvert/Edmonds were given a single show in 2022. In 2024 they were supposed to dance two shows, but Calvert was injured and Edmonds was replaced as well. Neither of them will likely be promoted, so while I’m still predicting them, I won't be surprised if one or both of them are taken out of Swan Lake to make room for others.
I can see one or two O/O debuts. The last name I put on the predictions is Hamilton. She wasn’t cast in Giselle which doesn’t inspire confidence, but she danced the role during her stint in Dresden and covered the role at RB (which doesn’t mean much tbh). So IMO her chances are very slim. I decided to predict her anyway because I still think after Tsembenhoi she’s the next most likely candidate, and I feel like this is her last chance of getting cast in a classical role. It’s the other debut spot where having more Manon shows is impacting how I’m predicting. Before the announcement, I was convinced that the other debut slot would go to Tsembenhoi since she wasn’t cast in Manon or SPF, and after her successful Giselle debut, O/O could be the follow-up. Now I think she’ll debut either O/O or Manon but not both, and I decided to predict her here anyway because she is still the most obvious choice. There are a few other names that I also think may debut in either one of the ballets: Leticia Dias, Sae Maeda and Annette Buvoli. Viola Pantuso and Ella Newton Severgnini are dancing SPF, which I think will be their moment of the season, so I don’t think it’ll be them.
This will be Revé’s company debut but he’s danced the role elsewhere. Richardson isn’t cast in anything in the autumn, and all we know is that someone on BCF said “there is a reason,” So I'm just assuming he'll be back by then. With eleven male principals and another first soloist who danced the role, there’s no room for other Siegfried debuts but if anything happens (cough cough), I think Lukas Bjørneboe Brændsrød and Leo Dixon are the most likely candidates, though Luca Acri is a potential dark horse. Similar to the women, I think they may be given their opportunity in either Swan Lake or Manon, but there are fewer opportunities for the men.
When the season was announced I thought we were more likely to get a guest artist in Swan Lake than Manon, but we are indeed getting a guest artist in Manon, so IDK. All I’ll say is, if we are indeed getting a guest artist, I can't imagine it'll be someone who has never danced with any of the RB principals before. And purely based on gut instinct, I think we're more likely to get a woman than a man.
As I said in the Manon predictions, it’s harder to guess pairings this season, but I'm more confident here. I went with Nuñez/Muntagirov because they’re not paired together in the autumn Manon run and Nutcracker and I think if they don’t dance at least one full-length together this season, people will riot (I don’t think they’ll be paired together in the summer Manon run, they’ve never danced a MacMillan full-length together). The rest just fell into place. Went with Magri/Clarke because RB is trying to make this partnership happen with Nutcracker and Manon.
Cinema relay: RB’s preference for the cinema relay cast is principals only, with at least one run under their belt, and if possible, no repeats. Nuñez, Muntagirov, Bracewell, Nagdhi and Ball were filmed in this production. Osipova was filmed in the previous production. Takada was filmed for Japanese television. After this process of elimination, it leaves Hayward/Corrales, Magri/Clarke and O’Sullivan/Sambé, and within these three pairs I think Magri/Clarke is most likely. However, on the web page for Swan Lake, there are two photos of Kaneko. And at this point we should know publicity photos don’t mean much, and both of her frequent partners, Bracewell and Muntagirov (hey do you know he’s also her platonic friend?), were already filmed. However, RB does occasionally film a dancer in the same role more than once (or in the case of McRae's Mad Hatter, four times), so Fumi stans can still dream.
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Thank you for reading and putting up with me. I'll have a post for the Heritage Classics triple and summer Manon run at some point.
