u/Walking72

​1. Directional Success Rate (How Often polymarket the Favorite Wins)

​If you treat any contract over 50% as a prediction that an event will happen, Polymarket’s overall historical success rate sits around 73% across all resolved markets. ​However, a famous data study by scientist Alex McCullough specifically isolated markets with greater than 50% odds to see how often they resolved to "Yes". The success rate varies significantly based on time to resolution:

​1 Month Before Close: 90.5% accurate
​1 Day Before Close: 88.6% accurate
​4 Hours Before Close: 94.2% accurate