I ran 15000 simulations of DougDoug's timer. I don't really know why.
Fun facts:
- On average, the timer will hit 0 in about an hour, assuming the timer doesn't explode (the "Avg real (hit zero) stat). Doug's timer lasted for 2 hours 45 min, so he's (sorta) proven statistically* unlucky. Should have prayed to the bee gods more 🐝.
- There was an 8.3% chance his timer would have exceeded 24 hours. A believer can believe
- I tried this simulation with a low cap of 24 hours (in the above picture), but also with higher caps of 100 hours; most stats remain more or less the same (except for the average and standard deviation, of course, but that's going to get blown out by the capped timers either way)
If you have a basic Python setup (you can ask your favourite AI to help set this up for you as well), you can try this out as well. Just follow the instructions in the README.
https://github.com/ThatAmuzak/DougDougTimerSimulations.git
Be warned that this is horribly unoptimized code, and I'm not accepting any issues or PRs; this is a throwaway project. It takes around a minute or so on a half-decent laptop for 15k runs
Why did I do any of this?
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* For those of you stats nerds about to yell p-values and effect sizes, yes, he's not actually proven in a kosher statistics manner. You could theoretically compute the empirical p-value test and a non-parametric z-score, but I don't have the patience for that. If any of this makes sense to you, the code is up there; you should be able to modify it to save and export the dataframe to R to run your tests