▲ 11 r/voynich

Some statistical investigations that I've done.

I came across a video which applied Zipf's law as a test on the voynich manuscript and wanted to replicate it. So then I went down a successive path of looking at the next most obvious hypotheses, e.g. checking whether this was an actual language, or a cypher, or some sort of algorithmically generated gibberish.

So there are two statistics where the manuscript seems to significantly differ from a real language: 1. it's characters are far more predictable than in any real script that I looked at, and 2. it's word lengths are unusually uniform. so working through possible explanations for this (for example including specialised list/catalogue-type language) seemed to rule out most things (e.g. the language entropy seemed to move in the wrong direction when we applied technical/botanical latin for example into a catalogue style, running it through the same tests). Another candidate was an invented language, but this seems to fail because it still does not behave gramatically like an unknown language.

The conclusion after all this seems to be what Timm & Schinner found in 2019 that there is that each word in the manuscript is a copy of a previous word, mutated by some algorithm. With the seed for each page being a label or word either related or unrelated to the image on the page. To test this built text-generation code that would produce text that replicates the statistical atributes of the manuscript, and this seemed to hold up very well. A four-parameter generator built on that mechanism reproduces essentially every statistic in the manuscript, including ones it was never fitted to, so no meaning is required to explain the text's internal properties.

I've created a github repo with a summary page and the code that I used (yes, language models were used to assist writing the code and analyzing and presenting the results. ) https://whitehatnetizen.github.io/voynich-investigation/

I'm currently working on the "still open" questions in the conclusion section at the bottom of the page.

Hopefully I haven't broken any sub rules by posting this.

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u/Whitehatnetizen — 2 days ago

[OC] US public infrastructure investment 1929 to 2024, in dollars and as a share of GDP. Four-segment breakdown across 96 years

Government gross investment in structures, 1929 to 2024.

Data Sources - Table data

BEA NIPA Table 5.9.5 Gross Government Fixed Investment by Type. Accessed via the BEA Data API. The table publishes Federal Nondefense and State-and-Local structures separately, broken out by structure type. (apps.bea.gov)

The four segments on the chart sum the relevant federal and state-and-local lines into all-government totals. Federal Defense structures (military bases and so on) are excluded entirely as these would come under a "military spending" budget

Segment mapping: Highways & streets = lines 25 + 40; Other transport (transit, air, water) = lines 23 + 38; Utilities (power, water, sewer) = lines 24 + 39 + 41 + 42; Conservation & development = lines 26 + 43.

GDP, 1929 to 202:IEA NIPA Table 1.1.5 Gross Domestic Product, calendar-year nominal.

BEA's Federal Nondefense view doesn't separately break out water systems or sewer. Those are bundled into "Other" along with lodging, religious, communication, sewage, and waste disposal. State and local water and sewer (lines 41 and 42) are reported separately and dominate the all-government total (state and local does about 95% of US public water and sewer investment), so the federal omission moves the numbers by a tiny amount.

2025 annual figures aren't yet published by BEA. Table 5.9.5 is annual-frequency and updates months after year end. BEA is expected to release 2025 NIPA detail around Sep 2026.

Period markers War periods provided as context as background coloured bars, the policy eras marked underneath with square brackets are the periods that drove investment spending.

War periods (background bands)

WWII (1941–1945). Pacific and European theatre. Civilian construction got reallocated to war production. Infrastructure investment crashed to its all-time low of about 0.25% of GDP.

Korea (1950–1953). Korean War. Modest impact on domestic infrastructure; postwar recovery was already in motion and the Interstate era was three years away.

Vietnam (1965–1973). US combat in Southeast Asia. Overlaps with the late Interstate era and the launch of Great Society (Lyndon B. Johnson 1964-68) programs. Competing budget pressure on domestic capital spending.

Reagan (1981–1989). Cold War defence build-up. Overlaps with the end of the post-Interstate infrastructure plateau and the start of the long decline in GDP share.

GWOT (2001–2011). Global War on Terror: Iraq and Afghanistan operations. Federal infrastructure investment held roughly steady; state and local picked up. The ARRA stimulus (2009 to 2011) overlaps the tail end.

Infrastructure-policy eras (bracket markers below the x-axis)

New Deal (1933–1939). Roosevelt's response to the Great Depression. The PWA (Public Works Administration), WPA (Works Progress Administration), TVA (Tennessee Valley Authority), and CCC(Civilian Conservation Corps) poured federal dollars into dams, roads, schools, and rural electrification. Drove infrastructure investment to its all-time GDP-share peak: 3.17% in 1936.

Interstate era (1956–1972). The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956 created the Highway Trust Fund and authorised the Interstate Highway System: 41,000 miles of limited-access freeway, paid for by federal fuel taxes on a 90/10 federal-to-state cost share. Annual highway investment roughly doubled between 1956-68from 4.4B to 8.7B. (but of course this is relatively flat as a percentage of GDP, and the actual number increase is hard to see on the scale we're looking at here. )

Great Scociety Lindon B Johnson's domestic policy agenda. I initially didn't include this, but I was very interested in the seeming reduction in infrastructure spending. This policy agenda moved federal spending to social programs and away from physical infrastructure. e.g. Civil Rights act (1964) outlawed segregation in public accommodations and employment. Food Stamp Act made the food stamp pilot a permanent program. Medicare/medicaid created in 1965 along with the Voting Rights Act, Head Start, Elementary and Secondary Education Act and the Higher Education Act. Also the Housing and Urban Development Act (also 1965) expanded federal housing programs and added rent subsidies.

Clean Water Act (1972–1980). The Federal Water Pollution Control Act amendments of 1972 created the Construction Grants Program, which gave federal cost share for sewer and wastewater-treatment plant construction. Peaked in the late 1970s and got replaced in 1987 by the State Revolving Fund (a loan programme rather than direct grants).

ARRA (2009–2011). American Recovery and Reinvestment Act: $831B Obama-administration stimulus, of which roughly $100B was tagged for infrastructure. A counter-cyclical capital push during the post-2008 recession.

IIJA (2021–2024). Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act: $1.2T five-year bipartisan law, of which $550B is new spending above baseline. The biggest single infrastructure law since the Interstate era.

u/Whitehatnetizen — 2 months ago

[OC] US defense outlays since WWI, in constant FY27 dollars. the proposed FY27 budget sits in-between 1943 spend (1.3T) and 1944 spend (1.5T) Actual, and inflation-adjusted equivalents.

u/Whitehatnetizen — 2 months ago

What is this metal container with a plastic lid and spring activated spike?

There is a spring inside, the blue plastic "lid" compresses down, whether you are pushing on the blue or upside down on the metal. When the spring is compressed a spike protrudes from the hole in the metal at the bottom. The spike seems too large to be a finger prick/blood test thing, and also there is no latch to make it suddenly pierce the skin so to use it to draw blood would be painful. The blue "lid" does not come off (short of inserting a knife to pry it off ) e.g. does not screw off or detach easily..

u/Whitehatnetizen — 2 months ago

I've created this visually interesting interactive timeline of all earthquakes recorded since 1960. There is a slidable/auto-playable timeline with "major events" that you can click on (these are either high magnitude or high casualty) . each earthquake event has a hover-over information about the date/time/location/depth of the earthquake. Dark mode and Light mode available. I've hosted on my github (not advertising, it's just a convenient place to put it.)

https://whitehatnetizen.github.io/earthquakes/

it's fun to watch the ring of fire when you hit the play button. I prefer Dark mode for this though.

whitehatnetizen.github.io
u/Whitehatnetizen — 2 months ago

hey all.

I've been playing around with the census figures from 2021, and the tax statistics from 2022-2023 and wanted to visualise the median incomes and other things across the Brisbane suburbs.

So I've built this visualiser.

https://preview.redd.it/vua59ru1m8yg1.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=0a277aca5007fa87d3c0160d62347faead7b4848

you can search and click on a suburb to see the breakdown of household (everyone under a roof), family (related people under a roof), and personal (individual) income, and median rental costs and median mortgage costs.

https://preview.redd.it/jfj4k7i2m8yg1.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=df1629a192e318fb725cee2caf7809b083e1b3b2

you can type in a number and see the comparison across Brisbane for that number. e.g. type in a rental cost per week and see the map coloured by suburbs where the median is higher or lower than that number.

There's a "Burden" selection which shows suburbs coloured by whether they are experiencing rental stress (rent > 30% of income) you can swap between household income vs rental stress:

https://preview.redd.it/fspq1w54m8yg1.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=9b08526ea8d0bf58ed2f0770b48f1e4ff052e468

and individual income vs rental stress:

https://preview.redd.it/hm8rfe29m8yg1.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=24762d343c4796d7e6fed31f6f3ee04dc14cc59f

The suburb information is from the 2021 census, and the postcode data is from the tax stats which is more recent and accurate, but does not have the breakdown by household/family etc.

quick reminder: Median = the middle value in a list of values. (more representative of the population.) Mean (or average) is the the sum of the values divided by the number of values (can be very skewed by outlying values such as billionaires)

There's also a dark-mode for people who don't like being blinded by their computer monitors.

https://preview.redd.it/cy8lc6l9m8yg1.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=c588f75c0cabfdd602fb52937ace4f1f268e7656

It's all here on my GitHub page (I'm not advertising, it's just a convenient place to host this kind of stuff).

https://whitehatnetizen.github.io/brisbane-income-map/

reddit.com
u/Whitehatnetizen — 2 months ago