u/aka0007

Now that June is over we know the box office for June will be about $1.06 Billion and the Q2 Box office will be about $2.96 Billion.

Since COVID the top 4 quarters (not counting Q2 2026) were:

Q2 2023 $2.68 Billion

Q2 2025 $2.67 Billion

Q3 2024 $2.66 Billion

Q3 2023 $2.65 Billion

So at least dollar-wise, unadjusted for inflation, this quarter is a significant improvement.

Each of these periods had some notable films that performed well, but I think the main difference with 2026 is a higher level of performance once we look beyond the top few films.

Looking to Q3, I think we are looking at another $2.9B+ quarter but obviously as we have seen films can out perform or underwhelm throwing off expectations.

Q4 should be quite interesting as Oct and Nov will likely underwhelm as they usually do but in Dec we have some major films (Doomsday and Dune Part 3) that can completely flip the picture for Q4. I see a possibility of another $2.9B+ quarter but no guarantees.

For the year this may mean we are headed towards $10.6B+ which is far above most estimates out there that I have seen... of course I can be wrong and we end up much lower, but that is the fun of making predictions.

Regarding AMC's profitability (I hold no investment in AMC), I think it is reasonable to assume some small profits (excluding gains or losses related to debt, but including interest expense) for Q2 - Q4 2026 but not enough to make up for the loss in Q1 2026. As I have long noted this makes investing in AMC from a fundamental perspective very hard to justify (at least for me). Its only path forward is further dilution and even if slightly profitable no returns to shareholders for a long time as any extra money has to go to paying down debt.

For CNK, which I am invested in, I think we may see profits of $175M for each quarter Q2-Q4 2026 which would be about $520M (net of the small loss in Q1) in profit for the year. Its current market cap is $3.72B which would be about a 7X PE ratio. I would expect something more like 12X-15X which would get me to a share price of $55 - $65 versus about $32 currently.

Perhaps the key determinant for what the value of these companies truly are is what 2027 will look like and if the figures we are seeing now for the box office can truly sustain or if 2026 is the top and that is it. I started recently building out my 2027 figures and currently I think Jan 2027 is looking strong. Beyond that I can't say as I have not completed my projections yet. My "gut" tells me that 2027 should be very strong so if anything I would not be surprised if the 2026 figures hold up to see projections for 2027 approaching $12 Billion.

At $12 Billion, AMC is perhaps making $75 million for the year and CNK I would think would be at about $700 million. Even at 15X PE ratios that would suggest a value for AMC of $1.1B vs $10.5B for CNK, which is a share price of $1.7 for AMC and $90 for CNK. AMC currently trades at $1.94 and CNK at $31.85. At these assumptions, one is overvalued and the other has a potential to about 3X.

FYI... I am not promoting investing in CNK. My investment thesis is based on fundamentals and if things work out as I expect I stand to make a decent amount of money and if they don't I may lose some. I don't need a cult following or a squeeze to make money here. On the other hand, with AMC I just don't understand any investment thesis beyond the greater fool theory of investing. Which is fine but you are just hoping you are not the greater fool in this story.

For those wondering my "angle" here. It is very simple. I follow these numbers very carefully and if I am right I stand to make between $600,000 - $8,000,000 on my CNK investment (LEAP Calls and Shares). I am spending time here because I see a potential to make a nice profit, not because I really care much about AMC. In fact, I barely pay attention to AMC anymore and my work is primarily focused on CNK as that is where my interest lies. I post these updates here because this all relates to AMC and I started with all this because I was carefully following AMC... I did make some good money when it had its reverse split and share merger, but since then have not been able to crack the code with AMC and have given up trying to make any further money on it. Good luck to all, whether short or long, figuring it out. It is beyond my abilities.

As we get into the second half of June we have better insight into the box office for Q2. Seems like June will come in close to $1.1B. B Riley was about the only prediction I could find out there and they had it at $1B. Like I have noted I think forecasts are overall understated. Total box office for Q2 will come about $3B, which adjusted for inflation is similar to Q2 2023.

Rather than get into long analysis... AMC is still a bad investment. Congrats on the pump if you timed that right. I assume apes are celebrating even if they forgot they are still way down. If anyone asks me don't go long or short in it. Just stay away. Better off buying Powerball as you know you are unlikely to ever win. Myself I am invested in CNK and doing pretty well there.

FYI... to be honest the whole AMC saga has gotten quite boring. My main interest currently in the box office is due to my CNK investment and I increasingly care little about AMC as it is too toxic for me to touch regardless of how right you are about it.

A few days back I gave an updated view on this topic and said my viewpoint was the DBO for 2026 could hit $10 - $10.5 Billion with an increasing likelihood of it hitting $10.5B.

Since then I completely went over the full slate of films for 2026 and now I think we might even see a DBO of $11B for 2026. I am not highly confident in this estimate yet but I think the DBO is seriously being underestimated by most.

In terms of AMC this likely means they show a little income for the year... but again this is likely insufficient to right the ship there. Bottom line they will need years and years to generate sufficient cash flow to improve their balance sheet which makes it hard to place much value on the stock.

For my favorite cinema stock, CNK, this would easily, I think, push the share price to $65+ by year end (I think $80+ is very likely at such levels).

I recently significantly increased my investments in CNK and now have around 15% of my total portfolio in CNK.

2 weeks back I posted here that I can see the DBO for 2026 coming in $10-$10.5 Billion. If anything the case for the upper end of that range has gotten stronger the last two weeks.

I further have cautioned against shorting AMC as it is/was obvious that AMC can pump as people realize the DBO will show strength that exceeds earlier projections.

Links: Link1 Link2

That said, I have consistently noted that AMC is a bad investment. Even at these box office levels they likely lose money or struggle to make any. With about $4 Billion in debt plus working capital shortages they might need $3 Billion to right their financials which they cannot generate currently via operations.

AMC's current market cap of $1.3 Billion makes dilution of the billions needed a total loss for shareholders, many whom are already down 90%+.

But yes, AMC can pump on good news, but eventually reality (bad financials or dilution) will drag them back down. Timing of movements and how long prices will sustain is far from certain making betting for or against a fools errand, IMO. What is certain is the fundamentals are not there.

From an investment standpoint, my long-term view is CNK is a better choice. At every DBO level that I can possibly forecast the investment thesis for CNK seems stronger to me. My own assumption is CNK will be at $50+ by year end with it possibly going to around $85. This viewpoint is based on my own modeling of their projected profits. I can be wrong and I limit my exposure accordingly.