Here's what's actually moving:

• Transportation: +7.6%
• Gasoline: +28.6%
• Fuel oil and other fuels: +41.3%
• Energy overall: +19.2%

The Middle East conflict has pushed global oil prices over $100 USD a barrel and it's showing up hard at the pump and on heating bills.

The Bank of Canada's preferred measures (CPI-trim and CPI-median) did drop to 2.0% and 2.1% which is probably why they're holding steady for now. But those strip out the volatile stuff, so they're not really capturing what people are feeling day to day.

Shelter is still up 1.8% YoY but it's not even the headline anymore. Food (+3.5%), transport (+7.6%), and health/personal care (+3.3%) all beat it this month.

On rate cuts: markets are pricing basically zero chance of anything happening June 10. July is at about 23%. The Bank of Canada also said for the first time this cycle that cuts and hikes are both still on the table, which tells you how uncertain things are right now.

The GTA gist

• Average condo prices are down roughly 20% from their 2022 peak and 10% from last year, one of the biggest resets the market has seen in decades.
• With nearly 8,000 listings active, more condos are available than we've seen in years, giving you real options.
• Sales activity is slower, which means less competition and more room to negotiate.
• Pre-construction completions are adding supply today, but that pipeline is shrinking. This could tighten the market in the years ahead.

What this means for you

✔ Buy at prices that simply weren't available two or three years ago.

✔ Negotiate on price, conditions, and closing terms in ways that heavily favour buyers right now.

✔ Enter the market with confidence, knowing you have more choice and less pressure than at any point in recent memory.

✔ Position yourself ahead of a potential supply squeeze as new construction slows.

• The prime rate stays at 4.45%: variable and adjustable mortgage payments remain unchanged.
• Fixed rates have already moved higher, independent of today's decision, due to rising bond yields.
• With over a million mortgages renewing this year, lenders are competing: you have leverage.

The opportunity for Canadian renewers:

Fixed vs. variable rates
If you're coming up for renewal and weighing your options, here's the landscape: the best variable rates are around 3.40%, while 5-year fixed rates have moved higher into the low-to-mid 4% range, driven by rising bond yields, not the Bank of Canada.

Good news from the renewal wave
With over a million mortgages renewing this year, lenders are competing hard for your business. That means you have real leverage, but only if you come to the table prepared.
60% of Canadians overspend on their mortgage by auto-renewing with their lenders.