I had to update this for the Grain Management FCC Approval news.

NEAR-TERM CATALYSTS:

➡️BlueBirds 11, 12, 13 shipping imminent
➡️Rakuten+AST will submit detailed plans for final CIAJ/MIC approval kicking off the J-LEO project.
➡️Formal approval will be in ~2H of July. Expect heavy PR and Communications around this event. My speculation is that we could see some movement around a Mitsubishi Heavy multi-launch agreement.
➡️AST will file STA w/ FCC to test Grain Management 800MHz spectrum very soon. Grain will conduct a 30-day solicitation to choose a satellite provider. I expect an agreement will be announced w/ AST within the 90-day FCC deadline - November 5th. AST and Grain will have until December 5th to submit detailed plans to meet the FCC's buildout requirement.

Upcoming Catalysts:

☑️$1B J-LEO Japan Project Formal Approval w/ Details 
☑️BB11 - BB13 Delivery to Florida and Launch on Falcon 9
☑️FCC STA to Test 800MHz Spectrum for D2D Service w/ Grain Mgmt
☑️BB8 - BB10 Deployment and Confirmation of Operations
☑️Achievement of ~200Mbps Performance for Block-2 Sats
☑️BB14 - BB16 Delivery to Florida and Launch on Falcon 9
☑️FCC STA to Test 900MHz Military Applications with US Space Development Agency 
☑️Block-2 BlueBird batch launches every month 
☑️Executing MLAs w/ United Launch Alliance, Ariane, Mitsubishi, Relativity and others
☑️Golden Dome (SHIELD Awarded, NOBLE Up Next)
☑️Execution of other DoW, SDA, DIU, and other Military Awards
☑️Grain Management 800MHz Satellite Provider Selection
☑️AT&T Verizon T-Mobile Joint Venture Definitive Agmt
☑️T-Mobile Definitive Commercial Agreement
☑️FirstNet Investment and Definitive Commercial Agreement
☑️FCC Approval of Ligado Modification Application
☑️Execution of more Definitive Commercial Agmts w/ Prepaid Revenue and/or Investment w/ More ~60 global MNOs
☑️Beta Testing w/ AT&T and FirstNet in 2H 2026
☑️Updates on Google Services Agmt Partnership
☑️Patnership with Meta
☑️Initiation of Research Coverage by JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, others
☑️Expansion of 13x contracts w/ Department of Defense, Space Development Agency, Defense Innovation Unit, Missile Defense Agency and more
☑️FCC 5G Fund grant
☑️Progress on 12 to 37x Block-2 BlueBirds in currently in Production
☑️Proposal for PNT Service Accepted by FCC as Alternative to GPS
☑️Initial Commercial Service w/ AT&T, Rakuten, Verizon, Vodafone in early 2027
☑️Securing +$500M of EXIM and IFC non-dilutive Funding
☑️Securing JBIC non-dilutive Funding for Rakuten Joint Venture
☑️Pursuit of L- and S-Band Spectrum Licenses Globally
☑️Pursuit of Additional Lowband Spectrum in US
☑️EU Allocation of 2GHz MSS Spectrum to SatCo JV
☑️Strategic Partnerships and Investments to Focus on AI Data Center Opportunity
☑️Catalysts the SpaceMob have yet to Contemplate

Recently Completed Milestones:
🚨$1B J-LEO Japan Project Awarded to Rakuten + AST SpaceMobile
✅BB8 - BB10 Launch on Falcon 9
🚨Brazilian Regulator Anatel Approved AST SpaceMoble for Commercial Service and Allocated 10MHz x 10MHz of S-Band Spectrum
✅Reached +3,900 Patent & Patent pending Claims
✅AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile Joint Venture Formation
✅Achieved 99Mbps performance with Block-1 BlueBird
🚨 FCC Approval for Full US SCS Commercial Service🚨 
✅$45M Verizon Commercial Prepayment Unlocked
✅BB7 💐 Launch on Blue Origin New Glenn-3
✅Demonstrated +150mbps Peak Speed w/ Block-2 BlueBird
✅7x New Design Composite Rings Delivered to Midland
✅Acquisition of New Manufacturing Space in Midland, TX focused exclusively on Micron production
✅Telus Definitive Commercial Agreement w Strategic Investment and $200M Committed Revenue (speculated)
✅Partnership with Orange
✅Partnership with Taiwan Mobile
✅Partnership with AXIAN Telecom
✅Satellite Connect Europe Partnership (“SCE”) with Telefonica
✅SCE Partnership with Orange
✅SCE Partnership with CK Hutchinson
✅SCE Partnership with Sunrise Switzerland
✅SCE Partnership with Vodafone Romania
✅SCE Partnership with VodafoneThree UK
✅SCE Partnership with Vodafone Ireland
✅AST Awarded $30M Prime Contract by US SDA for Halo Europa Program
✅Development of AI Engine to Dynamically Manage Satellite Capacity and Spectrum Efficiency = Seeking 3-10x Capacity Improvement
✅Disclosed over $1.2 billion in Aggregate Contracted Revenue Commitments from Commercial Partners
✅Raised $1.08B 2.25% Convertible Note resulting in $4B of Pro Forma Cash
✅BB6 Unfolding Phased Array
✅AST Awarded Prime Contract Position on US Missile Defense Agency SHIELD Program
✅Filed w/ FCC to modify Existing License to use S-Band spectrum outside of the US
✅$175M Saudi Telecom prepayment to be made by 2025YE
✅BB6 Launched from India on ISRO LVM3
✅Micron Production to Support 6x a Month by End of Q3 2025
✅Expanded Manufacturing Floor Space to 500,000 Square Feet
✅2,000 Global Workforce
✅Established Germany as SatCo JV operations center, filed constellation with ITU
✅Closed $420M bridge financing to support Ligado spectrum transaction
✅Saudi Telecom 10-Year Definitive Commercial Agreement w/ $175M prepayment and over $1.8B value
✅Confirmed L- and  S- band Spectrum to be Incorporated into Next 3GPP release
✅Verizon Definitive Commercial Agreement
✅Raised $1.15B 2.0% Convertible Note resulting in $3.2B of Pro Forma Cash and Liquidity
✅Successful Video and Voice Testing with Bell Canada
✅US Bankruptcy Court confirms AST and Ligado L-band spectrum transaction transaction, deal now only subject to FCC appoval
✅Acquired Global S-Band Spectrum Priority Rights held Under International Telecommunication Union
✅Successfully Completed the First-ever Native Voice Call (VoLTE) and Rext (SMS) with a Standard Cell Phone using AT&T Spectrum and Core Network
✅Hired JR Wilson as Chief of Networks and Spectrum, formerly AT&T VP of Tower Strategy, Roaming & In-Building Solutions
✅Raised $575M 2.375% Convertible Note w/ Capped Call struck at $120, resulting in $1.5B of Pro Forma Cash on Balance Sheet
✅Repurchased $360M of $460M 4.25% Convertible Note
✅Entered into $550M of Non-Recourse Senior Secured Term Loan to fund Ligado Transaction
✅Secured $100M Equipment Loan Facility
✅Moved to Russell 1000 from Russell 2000 Index
✅Demonstrated World's First Tactical NTN Connectivity over Standard Mobile Devices with Defense Prime Fairwinds Technologies
✅Announced Latest MNO Partnership with Vodafone Idea of India
✅Hired Jennifer Manner as SVP of Regulatory Affairs and International Strategy, Former NTIA Senior Advisor of Space and Policy and EchoStar SVP of Regulatory Affairs
✅FCC Accepts AST’s Application for US Commercial Service
✅FCC Chair Brendan Carr and Senator Ted Cruz visit HQ in support of AST
✅Verizon and AT&T Spectrum Lease Agreements filed w/ FCC
✅FCC grants STA for beta testing w/ AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Bell Canada, and Rakuten
✅FCC grants STA for Firstnet Evaluation on Public Safety Band 14
✅AST SpaceMobile Forms SatCo Joint Venture w/ Vodafone to Better Serve European market, Selects Luxembourg as HQ and Germany for NOC
✅Secured $43M and $20M Contracts w/ US Space Development Agency and Defense Innovation Unit
✅AST5000 ASIC Development Finished and Integration into Block-2 Sats in Q2 2026
✅Successful Video Calls Completed w/ AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone and Rakuten
✅Exercised Multi-launch Agmts w/ SpaceX, Blue Origin and ISRO
✅Initiation of Research Coverage by Bank of America, Clear Street, Roth Capital, Cantor Fitzgerald, Oppenheimer and William Blair
✅Established Coordination Agmt w/ US National Science Foundation Covering Satellite and Ground-based Astronomy Operations
✅Closed $460M 4.25% Convertible Debt Funding
✅Opened European Research Center w/ Vodafone and University of Malaga in Spain
✅Signed Deal w/ Singapore’s Defense Science and Technology Agency
✅Joined 5G Automotive Association, which Develops and Promotes 5G-based Solutions for Connected Autonomous Vehicles

NEAR-TERM CATALYSTS:

➡️AST will likely ship BlueBirds 11, 12, 13 over the weekend for a potential first week of August launch aboard SpaceX Falcon 9 from Cape Canaveral

➡️Rakuten+AST will submit detailed plans for final CIAJ/MIC approval kicking off the J-LEO project. Formal approval will be in ~2H of July. Expect heavy PR and Communications around this event. My speculation is that we could see some movement around a Mitsubishi Heavy multi-launch agreement.

Upcoming Catalysts:

☑️$1B J-LEO Japan Project Formal & Detailed Announcement
☑️BB11 - BB13 Delivery to Florida and Launch on Falcon 9
☑️BB8 - BB10 Deployment and Confirmation of Operations
☑️Achievement of ~200Mbps Performance for Block-2 Sats
☑️BB14 - BB16 Delivery to Florida and Launch on Falcon 9
☑️FCC STA to Test 900MHz Military Applications with US Space Development Agency 
☑️T-Mobile Definitive Commercial Agreement
☑️Block-2 BlueBird batch launches every month 
☑️Executing MLAs w/ United Launch Alliance, Ariane, Mitsubishi, Relativity and others
☑️Golden Dome (SHIELD Awarded, NOBLE Up Next)
☑️Execution of other DoW, SDA, DIU, and other Military Awards
☑️FirstNet Investment and Definitive Commercial Agreement
☑️FCC Approval of Ligado Modification Application
☑️Execution of more Definitive Commercial Agmts w/ Prepaid Revenue and/or Investment w/ More ~60 global MNOs
☑️Beta Testing w/ AT&T and FirstNet in 2H 2026
☑️Updates on Google Services Agmt Partnership
☑️Patnership with Meta
☑️Initiation of Research Coverage by JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, others
☑️Expansion of 13x contracts w/ Department of Defense, Space Development Agency, Defense Innovation Unit, Missile Defense Agency and more
☑️FCC 5G Fund grant
☑️Progress on 12 to 37x Block-2 BlueBirds in currently in Production
☑️Proposal for PNT Service Accepted by FCC as Alternative to GPS
☑️Initial Commercial Service w/ AT&T, Rakuten, Verizon, Vodafone in early 2027
☑️Securing +$500M of EXIM and IFC non-dilutive Funding
☑️Securing JBIC non-dilutive Funding for Rakuten Joint Venture
☑️Pursuit of L- and S-Band Spectrum Licenses Globally
☑️Pursuit of Additional Lowband Spectrum in US
☑️EU Allocation of 2GHz MSS Spectrum to SatCo JV
☑️Strategic Partnerships and Investments to Focus on AI Data Center Opportunity
☑️Catalysts the SpaceMob have yet to Contemplate

Recently Completed Milestones:
🚨$1B J-LEO Japan Project Awarded to Rakuten + AST SpaceMobile
✅BB8 - BB10 Launch on Falcon 9
🚨Brazilian Regulator Anatel Approved AST SpaceMoble for Commercial Service and Allocated 10MHz x 10MHz of S-Band Spectrum
✅Reached +3,900 Patent & Patent pending Claims
✅AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile Joint Venture Formation
✅Achieved 99Mbps performance with Block-1 BlueBird
🚨 FCC Approval for Full US SCS Commercial Service🚨 
✅$45M Verizon Commercial Prepayment Unlocked
✅BB7 💐 Launch on Blue Origin New Glenn-3
✅Demonstrated +150mbps Peak Speed w/ Block-2 BlueBird
✅7x New Design Composite Rings Delivered to Midland
✅Acquisition of New Manufacturing Space in Midland, TX focused exclusively on Micron production
✅Telus Definitive Commercial Agreement w Strategic Investment and $200M Committed Revenue (speculated)
✅Partnership with Orange
✅Partnership with Taiwan Mobile
✅Partnership with AXIAN Telecom
✅Satellite Connect Europe Partnership (“SCE”) with Telefonica
✅SCE Partnership with Orange
✅SCE Partnership with CK Hutchinson
✅SCE Partnership with Sunrise Switzerland
✅SCE Partnership with Vodafone Romania
✅SCE Partnership with VodafoneThree UK
✅SCE Partnership with Vodafone Ireland
✅AST Awarded $30M Prime Contract by US SDA for Halo Europa Program
✅Development of AI Engine to Dynamically Manage Satellite Capacity and Spectrum Efficiency = Seeking 3-10x Capacity Improvement
✅Disclosed over $1.2 billion in Aggregate Contracted Revenue Commitments from Commercial Partners
✅Raised $1.08B 2.25% Convertible Note resulting in $4B of Pro Forma Cash
✅BB6 Unfolding Phased Array
✅AST Awarded Prime Contract Position on US Missile Defense Agency SHIELD Program
✅Filed w/ FCC to modify Existing License to use S-Band spectrum outside of the US
✅$175M Saudi Telecom prepayment to be made by 2025YE
✅BB6 Launched from India on ISRO LVM3
✅Micron Production to Support 6x a Month by End of Q3 2025
✅Expanded Manufacturing Floor Space to 500,000 Square Feet
✅2,000 Global Workforce
✅Established Germany as SatCo JV operations center, filed constellation with ITU
✅Closed $420M bridge financing to support Ligado spectrum transaction
✅Saudi Telecom 10-Year Definitive Commercial Agreement w/ $175M prepayment and over $1.8B value
✅Confirmed L- and  S- band Spectrum to be Incorporated into Next 3GPP release
✅Verizon Definitive Commercial Agreement
✅Raised $1.15B 2.0% Convertible Note resulting in $3.2B of Pro Forma Cash and Liquidity
✅Successful Video and Voice Testing with Bell Canada
✅US Bankruptcy Court confirms AST and Ligado L-band spectrum transaction transaction, deal now only subject to FCC appoval
✅Acquired Global S-Band Spectrum Priority Rights held Under International Telecommunication Union
✅Successfully Completed the First-ever Native Voice Call (VoLTE) and Rext (SMS) with a Standard Cell Phone using AT&T Spectrum and Core Network
✅Hired JR Wilson as Chief of Networks and Spectrum, formerly AT&T VP of Tower Strategy, Roaming & In-Building Solutions
✅Raised $575M 2.375% Convertible Note w/ Capped Call struck at $120, resulting in $1.5B of Pro Forma Cash on Balance Sheet
✅Repurchased $360M of $460M 4.25% Convertible Note
✅Entered into $550M of Non-Recourse Senior Secured Term Loan to fund Ligado Transaction
✅Secured $100M Equipment Loan Facility
✅Moved to Russell 1000 from Russell 2000 Index
✅Demonstrated World's First Tactical NTN Connectivity over Standard Mobile Devices with Defense Prime Fairwinds Technologies
✅Announced Latest MNO Partnership with Vodafone Idea of India
✅Hired Jennifer Manner as SVP of Regulatory Affairs and International Strategy, Former NTIA Senior Advisor of Space and Policy and EchoStar SVP of Regulatory Affairs
✅FCC Accepts AST’s Application for US Commercial Service
✅FCC Chair Brendan Carr and Senator Ted Cruz visit HQ in support of AST
✅Verizon and AT&T Spectrum Lease Agreements filed w/ FCC
✅FCC grants STA for beta testing w/ AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Bell Canada, and Rakuten
✅FCC grants STA for Firstnet Evaluation on Public Safety Band 14
✅AST SpaceMobile Forms SatCo Joint Venture w/ Vodafone to Better Serve European market, Selects Luxembourg as HQ and Germany for NOC
✅Secured $43M and $20M Contracts w/ US Space Development Agency and Defense Innovation Unit
✅AST5000 ASIC Development Finished and Integration into Block-2 Sats in Q2 2026
✅Successful Video Calls Completed w/ AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone and Rakuten
✅Exercised Multi-launch Agmts w/ SpaceX, Blue Origin and ISRO
✅Initiation of Research Coverage by Bank of America, Clear Street, Roth Capital, Cantor Fitzgerald, Oppenheimer and William Blair
✅Established Coordination Agmt w/ US National Science Foundation Covering Satellite and Ground-based Astronomy Operations
✅Closed $460M 4.25% Convertible Debt Funding
✅Opened European Research Center w/ Vodafone and University of Malaga in Spain
✅Signed Deal w/ Singapore’s Defense Science and Technology Agency
✅Joined 5G Automotive Association, which Develops and Promotes 5G-based Solutions for Connected Autonomous Vehicles

I woke up this morning very bullish on AST SpaceMobile, but it seems that I wasn't bullish enough! The US Pentagon is seeking alternatives to SpaceX = AST SpaceMobile

Key points:

+ Ongoing disputes underscore how the Pentagon's growing reliance on SpaceX is handing Musk greater leverage over a critical layer of national security.
+ SpaceX is trying to raise prices of terminal access for US drones to $5,000 to $25,000
+The Pentagon is seeking to help Iranians bypass government imposed comms blackouts by providing direct-to-cell connections
+ In a statement, a Pentagon official said the office responsible for acquiring the terminals, the Commercial Satellite Communications Office, is working to find other competitors.

-> AST SpaceMobile solves all these issues

Article: PENTAGON SPARS WITH SPACEX OVER STARLINK PRICE HIKE DURING IRAN WAR - REUTERS

As U.S. kamikaze drones guided by Elon Musk’s Starlink network began to make visible gains in the war against Iran, senior SpaceX officials reached a conclusion: The Pentagon should be paying more for access to their satellite Wi-Fi network.

Within weeks of the United States launching its bombing campaign, SpaceX executives met Pentagon officials and argued the military had been paying about $5,000 for connection per terminal while effectively using a higher tier of service worth closer to $25,000, according to two sources familiar with the matter and Pentagon documents reviewed by Reuters.

The disagreement over Starlink’s use on LUCAS suicide drones — a cheap U.S. model comparable to Iran’s Shahed that can circle over a target area before diving to detonate on impact — is part of increasing tensions between SpaceX and the Pentagon over Starlink pricing in recent months, according to interviews with five people familiar with the matter and the documents.

The Pentagon, which is seeking to help Iranian citizens bypass government-imposed communications blackouts, has also been at odds with SpaceX over pricing for a plan to provide the populace direct-to-cell connections with Starlink akin to 5G service, two of the sources said.

The ongoing disputes, which have not previously been reported, underscore how the Pentagon’s growing reliance on SpaceX is handing Musk greater leverage over a critical layer of U.S. national security — at a time when SpaceX is seeking to boost revenue ahead of an IPO next month that could be among the biggest in history.

Unlike consumer Starlink terminals available at stores including Walmart, SpaceX sells a military-specific version called Starshield to the Pentagon under a 2023 agreement. Starshield terminals can connect to both commercial Starlink satellites and a separate, more secure constellation, also called Starshield, according to a person familiar with the matter.
SpaceX argued the LUCAS drones were operating under conditions that aligned more closely with its aviation tier subscription rather than a lower priced land or mobility service.

Pentagon officials argued that the $25,000 price tag — a monthly fee — was designed for aircraft, not kamikaze drones that used Starlink connection for a matter of minutes or hours, according to one of the sources.

The Pentagon, which was ramping up strikes on Iran, ultimately agreed to pay SpaceX’s proposed price increase, almost doubling the cost of each LUCAS drone. The Pentagon was initially paying about $30,000 per unit.

SpaceX didn’t respond to a comment request.

The Pentagon declined to comment on Reuters reporting that SpaceX increased its pricing, its decision to pay, or the plan to provide Iranian citizens with Starlink cell service. In a statement, a Pentagon official said the office responsible for acquiring the terminals, the Commercial Satellite Communications Office, is working to find other competitors.

But no other company provides a comparable alternative to Starlink, which has become an increasingly critical tool in modern warfare since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The satellite network provides global coverage, enabling battlefield communications and precision targeting even in remote areas. SpaceX’s constellation of roughly 10,000 satellites accounts for more than 60% of those in orbit - dwarfing the constellations being built by other companies, including OneWeb and Amazon Leo.

The risks of reliance on Starlink were first thrown into sharp focus during the Ukraine war, when Musk ordered Starlink service switched off in parts of the country in 2022 as Ukrainian forces advanced on Russian positions, disrupting a key counteroffensive, Reuters previously reported. More recently, U.S. Navy tests were disrupted last summer when a global Starlink outage cut off connection to unmanned military boats, leaving them bobbing in the ocean.

SpaceX has U.S. government ‘over a barrel’

Unlike traditional defense contractors, SpaceX holds greater leverage over the Pentagon because it also has a large commercial market for Starlink, alongside its rocket launch and artificial intelligence businesses, said Clayton Swope, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a national security-focused think tank. SpaceX generates about 20% of its total revenue from the U.S. government, according to an SEC filing.
SpaceX “certainly has the U.S. government over the barrel,” Swope said.

At the outset of the Iran war, Starlink was already a core part of U.S. military operations. In testing and early deployments, it supported a range of systems, from aerial attack drones such as the LUCAS to unmanned surface vessels used for maritime surveillance and strike missions. When the U.S. launched its bombing campaign, Starshield terminals were being used across more than a dozen drone systems, according to a source familiar with the matter.

But tensions between the Pentagon and SpaceX emerged quickly after the U.S. launched its February 28 assault on Iran. On March 1, SpaceX chief Elon Musk responded on X to a user’s post featuring an image of the LUCAS drone that said it “appears to have an integrated Starlink” terminal.

“It is a violation of commercial Starlink terms of service to use the terminal for weapon systems. This applies to all users and is shut down when discovered,” Musk posted. “There is a separate network called Starshield, which is operated by the US government.”

The Pentagon official, in a statement to Reuters, denied any violation of its agreement with SpaceX.

In the days that followed, SpaceX executives met Pentagon officials and argued the military was underpaying for the service, two sources familiar with the matter said.

Although the Pentagon initially agreed to the higher fee for satellite Wi-Fi connections used by attack drones, senior officials including Deputy Secretary of Defense Steve Feinberg remained uneasy about the arrangement, one of the sources said. Pentagon officials, during an April ceasefire, met to revisit the pricing with Terrence O’Shaughnessy, a retired four-star Air Force general who now leads SpaceX’s defense business.

Still, the Pentagon is currently considering an additional purchase of more than 3,500 Starshield terminal subscriptions, including 100 with the higher-priced aviation tier, according to Pentagon documents reviewed by Reuters. The deal could generate hundreds of millions of dollars in annual revenue for SpaceX, though Reuters could not determine whether an agreement has been finalized, or what price is being discussed.

SpaceX prices irk Pentagon

Starlink has also proved crucial to other operations. After Iran cracked down on protests in January, killing thousands of people, the Trump administration smuggled in more than 6,000 Starlink terminals to provide internet access to citizens, the Wall Street Journal previously reported.

As the war intensified, however, Iranian authorities confiscated the terminals and deployed jamming devices across major cities to disrupt connections, according to a source familiar with the matter. Within a week of the conflict beginning, Pentagon officials began discussions with SpaceX about deploying direct-to-cell service that could bypass those disruptions, two people familiar with the matter said. The capability, similar to a 5G connection, would allow users to connect without terminals on the ground.

SpaceX, which generated $11.4 billion in revenue from Starlink in 2025, proposed charging as much as $500 million to launch the capability, along with a $100 million monthly fee to operate it, according to one of the people and Pentagon documents - prompting alarm from defense officials over the price.

Reuters could not determine whether an agreement has been reached.

AT&T, VERIZON, T-MOBILE FORM SATELLITE-TO-PHONE JOINT VENTURE AMID MUSK SPACEX WORRIES

2026-05-14 15:45:33 GMT

By Reinhardt Krause

(Investor's Business Daily) -- AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon Communications on Thursday announced a wireless joint venture focused on using satellite-based, direct-to-device (D2D) technology to eliminate rural "dead zones" where cellphone service is not available. The rare network infrastructure agreement comes amid speculation that Elon Musk's Starlink could be a long-term competitor to the three wireless giants, though it is partnering currently with T-Mobile.

"We believe this is a way for the carriers to attempt to remain in the driver seat for D2D going forward, but the actual demand and the economics of providing these services is still unclear, said Raymond James analysts Ric Prentiss and Frank Louthan in a report.

Both AT&T and Verizon have satellite to mobile phone deals with AST SpaceMobile.

On the stock market today, AST SpaceMobile rose more than 4% to 78.29. AST SpaceMobile still needs to launch more satellites before its system begins operation.

SPACEX IPO LOOMS

Starlink, AST SpaceMobile and Iridium compete in providing space-based cellular broadband networks. Further, Starlink is part of Musk's SpaceX, which is expected to soon launch an initial public offering.

"The U.S. wireless incumbents are nervous, and this week they showed it," said Walter Piecyk, analyst at LightShed Partners in a report. "(This is) an agreement in principle with no agreement behind it. The FCC, separately, cleared EchoStar's spectrum sales to AT&T and SpaceX earlier this week. We read the joint venture as a defensive move timed to the SpaceX IPO and doubt
much comes of it."

Meanwhile, the Federal Communications Commission on June 2 is slated to begin a small re-auction of AWS-3 spectrum, covering licenses that originally sold for $3.4 billion, noted BNP Paribas analyst Sam McHugh in a report.

He says a "dark horse" -- SpaceX has emerged as a possible bidder for the AWS-3 spectrum.

Referring to the satellite-to-phone joint venture, McHugh added: "It's clear to us that the carriers (AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile) are trying to control their destiny with D2D. It's hard not to see this as a shot across the bow at SpaceX."

"On one hand, it should reduce investor fears about SpaceX getting an MVNO from any of the carriers," McHugh added. "On the other hand, the carriers coming together (implicitly) to reduce SpaceX's potential influence in the direct-to-cell space may suggest that they were more nervous than the market realized."

The joint venture being formed by AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon will offer satellite operators access to pooled terrestrial spectrum. The joint venture will also combine intellectual property create industry specifications.

POSITIVE MOVE FOR ASTS STOCK?

"The agreement supports development of the nascent low earth orbit (LEO) industry and a more competitive LEO landscape," said Bank of America analyst Michael Funk in a report. "Compensation for spectrum use will depend on individual agreements with LEO operators. The joint venture does not envision a satellite (wholesale network sharing) model."

He added: "The agreement could be read positively on the margin for ASTS as it potentially expands the pool of carrier relationships. However, near term drivers of ASTS stock are satellite launch cadence and service revenue generation."

At Raymond James, analysts Prentiss and Louthan said in a report: "For now, this is simply an agreement in principle, with operating details, financial structure, and the available pool of partners to be determined. We do not expect the joint venture to hold licenses ---- rather, it will be a marketing agent for carriers to smaller wireless and LEO providers. We expect the joint venture to approach other service providers to offer network capacity they can purchase on a wholesale basis and access to the collective intellectual property around direct-to-device that the three national wireless providers have."

AMAZON TO PURCHASE GLOBALSTAR

The Raymond James analysts added: "We believe this would eliminate the need for carriers to do an (wholesale network agreement) with other providers fordirect-to-device solutions."

Meanwhile, Amazon recently agreed to purchase Globalstar, another player in the emerging direct-to-device market.

AT&T stock rose a fraction to 24.75 while Verizon stock dipped a fraction to 47.10. T-Mobile stock edged down a fraction to 189.37.

Follow Reinhardt Krause on X, formerly Twitter,

u/reinhardtk_tech

for updates on artificial intelligence, cybersecurity and cloud computing.

By Sana Pashankar and Bailey Lipschultz

(Bloomberg) -- Every so often, a tribalistic cry goes out to the community of zealots and space geeks who invest in and obsess over an obscure satellite company called AST SpaceMobile Inc. It’s in essence a rally-around-the-stock moment when it’s plunging.

In the vernacular of the SpaceMob, as they call themselves, this is a Kook Bottom, and it starts, naturally, with the Kook. An anonymous oddball of a character, the Kook plays the role of rah-rah bull on most days, firing off posts on X, one after the other, to remind the mob that AST will soon grow into a cash-minting powerhouse with a satellite business that can go toe-to-toe with Elon Musk’s SpaceX.

It’s this unbridled energy — from the Kook and the entire 50,000-strong SpaceMob community — that has improbably turned AST into one of the most expensive stocks in the world. Its market value has swollen to $25 billion, making it bigger than nearly a third of the companies in the S&P 500 despite the fact that its annual revenue, at $71 million, is just a fraction of what those companies rake in.

There’s a gravity-defying quality to the whole thing, which makes the stock prone to sudden crashes. If acute enough and long-lasting enough, they can even rattle the Kook himself — to the point where, in a moment of desperation, he begs for an end to all the losses by posting a rendering of the naked rear end of his namesake avatar: the Cardiff Kook surfer statue in California. (Hence the Kook Bottom name.)

https://preview.redd.it/6su4unep7xzg1.png?width=726&format=png&auto=webp&s=821a81fa3774bc0889f04636f9f02d18f5ac1a33

Excited chatter among the mob quickly ensues — “finally,” “the end is nigh” and so on — which, in turn, is often followed by a steady burst of buy orders that nudge the stock right back up.

“There’s tons of eccentric people in the mob,” explains Tanner Ottaway, a 34-year-old oil engineer who’s sunk most of his life savings into AST. “You know, if you’re called a mob, that’s going to happen.” But the Kook, Ottaway says, is the straw that stirs the drink. “He definitely creates that energy.”

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Over the past decade, any number of meme stocks have exploded onto the scene, handing the armies of day traders that back them both life-changing windfalls and stomach-churning losses. Few, though, have ever reached and sustained the heights that AST has, and none has ever done so while remaining virtually unknown to the broader investing public.

What’s more, AST’s breakneck rally — nearly 6,000% over a 22-month period, at its peak — signals that years after the pandemic unleashed the meme-stock craze and seared the names GameStop and AMC into the American psyche, the movement is not only still alive but, contrary to the prognostications emanating from Wall Street towers, continues to evolve and grow.

Their new-found financial might was on display earlier this spring when word broke that bankers for Musk, an expert at courting the day-trading crowd, were looking to set aside as much as 30% of all shares in the SpaceX IPO for retail investors.

That’s potentially more than $20 billion worth of stock orders, a sum that Steve Sosnick, the chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said would have been “unimaginable” a decade ago. He used the same term to describe AST’s swollen stock price. It “shows you,” he said, “the evolution of the marketplace.”

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The definition of a meme stock depends largely on who you ask — and few of those who have flocked to AST would readily embrace the term.

The companies elevated by the first wave were often deeply troubled name brands championed by nostalgic, winking day traders who made a game of banding together to squeeze short sellers and mock fundamentals-minded Wall Street pros by driving the shares into the stratosphere.

AST isn’t one of those. It’s got promising technology that beams signals from satellites straight to mobile phones, plans to significantly expand its network and deals with major telecom companies like AT&T Inc., Verizon Communications Inc. and Vodafone Group Plc. It counts Alphabet Inc., Google’s parent, among its biggest shareholders. And the SpaceMobbers, unlike some in the meme-stock crowd, insist they are in it for the long haul.

Yet in many ways, AST fits squarely in the meme-stock mold. There’s the always-online fanatics chattering about the stock’s every move; the bro talk and inside jokes; the all-in attitude; and through it all, a conviction that they’re going to get very, very rich — one so strong that it renders traditional methods of valuing a stock almost beside the point.

Peter Atwater, the president of advisory firm Financial Insyghts, said AST’s rise illustrates how the meme-stock craze has morphed from a fad into a more permanent feature of the market. “It’s a strategy,” he said. “Give me innovative, futuristic technology and I will show you an engaged, excited and inexperienced investing community — because that is what they’re drawn to most.”

To many old-school market veterans — folks like Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co. — it all remains a bit absurd. Asked back in January for his assessment of the AST rally, Maley, a strategist who started out on Wall Street in the 1980s, called the stock a “disaster waiting to happen” and predicted that sooner or later it would crater some 50%.

Turned out to be sooner: In February, it sank 29% and, by early May, had dropped 48% from its January peak. Maley now figures the rout is just heating up and could push the stock down another 20% or so.

The mob, of course, will likely have something to say about that at some point. And besides, even declines of that magnitude would do little to change the stock's overall trajectory. It remains up some 160% in the past year alone.

That's not to say the company — and by extension the stock — doesn't face challenges. There are plenty of them. For starters, there’s daunting competition from two extraordinarily deep-pocketed rivals: SpaceX, which already operates thousands of Starlink satellites, and now http://Amazon.com
Inc., which in April agreed to purchase rival satellite firm Globalstar Inc. to enter the space-to-cellular business that AST is targeting. AST is racing against those foes — and its own deadline — to put 45 more satellites into orbit this year and begin commercial service. Those plans were dealt a major blow in April, when its first launch of the year upon a Blue Origin rocket failed.

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AST was founded nearly a decade ago by Abel Avellan, a Venezuelan engineer who had created and sold another satellite company for $550 million. In 2021, AST went public via a special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, a backdoor route to the markets that took off just as the pandemic gave rise to the generation of day traders who would rally behind meme stocks.

Avellan has maintained a relatively low-key following as CEO, unlike Palantir Technologies Inc.’s Alex Karp, Musk and other tech-industry executives who have basked in their fame. He also hasn’t embraced the meme celebrity the way AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.’s Adam Aron did after the theater-chain’s stock surge. (Avellan and his staff at AST declined to comment for this story.)

But the company has acknowledged the debt to the SpaceMob. Executives take questions from individual investors first on earnings calls and have invited many to satellite launches in Cape Canaveral, including the most recent one on April 19, where SpaceMobbers watched alongside Avellan and AST President Scott Wisniewski. In a speech at Kennedy Space Center on the morning of the launch, Avellan acknowledged the hundreds of SpaceMobbers who had traveled - some from outside the US - to be there.

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The core of the SpaceMob took shape not long after the company went public. There were four of them at first — strangers who had crossed paths on Discord. Only one, the late Steve Larrison, a software engineer from Arizona, went by his actual name. The other three have kept their identities secret and are only known by their online handles: CatSE, a Swedish farmer; Anpanman, a Wall Street veteran who adopted a ruddy-cheeked Japanese superhero as his avatar; and the Kook, a Californian whose name is drawn from surfer slang for a clumsy beginner.

That was intentionally ironic. The Kook fancies himself a savant — an experienced investor who says he started his social media account to warn newbies about the perils of the SPAC market. Asked why he insists on maintaining his anonymity, the Kook responds with a humble brag that risks overstating his fame: it allows him to blend in and avoid the trappings of celebrity.

In the Discord chat the four men started — which, in a nod to CatSE, they called the ASTS NATO Alliance — they spent hundreds of hours studying the company’s technology, business model and financial prospects. They started posting their findings online to prove to the world, they said, that it was sleeping on what could be the next Google or Nvidia.

As the SpaceMob, and its obsession with the most minute of AST developments, grew, detractors on social media mocked them as a bunch of “crazies” and “zealots.” The group monitored the number of cars in the parking lot of AST’s Midland, Texas headquarters; found ways to tap into military radar and astronomer data to follow its satellites in orbit; tracked corporate jet flights and built software to find AST’s regulatory filings. They formed a tight bond -- to the point that when Larrison died in 2023, Anpanman said he had his remains compressed into a diamond and buried near a satellite launch site in Cape Canaveral.

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Much of the mob’s excitement centered around the company’s innovative approach to satellite development. AST's are outfitted with huge, waffle-shaped antennae that are so powerful they can provide reception directly to people’s mobile phones, opening up a new market that traditional satellites weren’t able to tap. (Their unique shape has, in classic meme-stock fashion, turned the waffle into the mob’s food of choice).

Ottaway, the oil engineer, was an early convert. He bought his first shares back in 2021, just another in a long line of SPAC deals he was investing in at the time. But he became intrigued by AST’s technology and began to pore through the mob’s musings on Reddit, night after night, while he rocked his infant daughter to sleep. The more he read, the more convinced he became the company was onto something big. By 2024, he had invested almost all of his and his wife's savings in the stock.

Things went horribly at first. The stock quickly crashed about 50%, a detail Ottaway kept from his wife. “For a long time, she didn’t even know about AST.”

The breakout moment for the stock came in May 2024, when AST signed a commercial agreement with AT&T. Two weeks later, the company announced another deal with Verizon, effectively locking down the two largest mobile service providers in the country and challenging SpaceX’s own pact to work with T-Mobile US Inc. The stock price more than tripled in 2024 and then again in 2025.

According to Ottaway’s calculations, his family’s stake is worth some $8 million today.

Even for those with far smaller investments, like Kevin Chen, the windfall has been transformative. A building-code consultant in western Canada who goes by #Kevbot in SpaceMob circles, Chen says he's begun to contemplate things, like opening a bakery for his fiancée, that he had never thought possible. The stock has “changed the whole outlook of my life,” he said.

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There's still been any number of stomach-turning twists, like the one that recently tanked the stock price and sent the Kook into his latest tizzy. But for all his hand-ringing, he swears that he’s rarely, if ever, doubted the company’s long-term prospects.

The same goes for Ottaway. He says he wouldn’t consider selling even part of his stake until the stock breaches $250 — a price that’s more than triple its current level.

His attachment to the mob, meanwhile, only seems to grow. When AST announced the timing of its satellite launch last month, he ditched his family vacation and grabbed the next flight to Orlando to watch it, promising his wife he’d buy her a diamond necklace to make up for it.

“I have a vision,” Ottaway said, “and I’m gonna see it out.”