My $IREN Investment Thesis

(used ChatGPT to translate to English as it is not my first language)

I've spent the past few months researching IREN, reading every filing, announcement, interview and industry development I could find. Based on that research, I've arrived at a hypothesis that I think is worth sharing.

This is not a statement of fact. It's simply my interpretation of the evidence currently available.

My hypothesis

IREN is positioning itself to become NVIDIA's strategic AI infrastructure partner, helping enterprises and governments deploy end-to-end AI Factories.

I believe the relationship between the two companies is evolving beyond a traditional customer-vendor relationship.

Why I think that

These are the facts that led me to this conclusion:

• NVIDIA signed a 5-year AI Cloud agreement (~$3.4B) with IREN.
• NVIDIA received warrants allowing it to acquire up to ~30 million IREN shares at approximately $70/share.
• IREN achieved NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud status, requiring close engineering collaboration and validation against NVIDIA's reference architecture.
• NVIDIA and IREN will present together at RAISE Summit on "Building for What's Next: Sovereign-Ready AI Infrastructure."
• IREN acquired Mirantis, adding Kubernetes, OpenStack and cloud orchestration capabilities.
• IREN hired senior executives from Oracle Cloud and Google/CyrusOne, strengthening its cloud platform and hyperscale expertise.
• Microsoft is expected to become IREN's first large AI Cloud customer as Horizon 1 comes online.

Individually, none of these facts proves anything. Collectively, however, they suggest to me that IREN is building something larger than a traditional GPU rental business.

Why the industry seems to be moving in this direction

Over the last few months we've also seen several broader industry developments:

• Jensen Huang has shifted NVIDIA's narrative from selling GPUs to building AI Factories.
• NVIDIA continues expanding its software ecosystem through CUDA, AI Enterprise, NIM and Nemotron.
• NVIDIA has introduced financing and revenue-sharing initiatives for selected AI infrastructure partners.
• Palantir has emphasized that enterprise and government customers increasingly want control over their own compute, models and infrastructure.
• Meta plans to commercialize excess AI compute.
• Leaked documents suggest Anthropic is seeking approximately 1.4GW of AI capacity in Australia.

Taken together, these developments reinforce my belief that AI infrastructure is evolving from individual hardware sales toward complete AI Factory deployments.

Where I think IREN fits

IREN combines several assets that I believe complement NVIDIA's ecosystem:

• 5.8GW of secured power.
• Vertically integrated data centers.
• AI Cloud infrastructure.
• Mirantis software capabilities.
• Cloud engineering talent.
• Proven operational performance validated by NVIDIA.

In my view, this creates the foundation for a company capable of delivering much more than compute capacity alone.

My hypothesis is that NVIDIA provides:

• GPUs
• Networking
• AI software
• AI models

while IREN provides:

• Power
• Data centers
• Cloud infrastructure
• Deployment
• Operations
• Software orchestration

Together, that could enable complete AI Factory deployments for enterprises and sovereign AI customers.

What I'm watching next

This thesis still requires validation.

The milestones I'm following most closely are:

• Horizon 1 successfully entering production for Microsoft.
• Growth in recurring AI revenue.
• Commercialization of the remaining 2027 AI capacity.
• Any further expansion of the relationship between NVIDIA and IREN.

Until then, this remains an investment hypothesis—not a conclusion.

I'd be interested to hear where people agree or disagree. Constructive criticism is always welcome.