wanted tp push the work from u/RevolutionaryStay843 a little further based on discussions in that conversation.
https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/5ed8b47a-f2a2-4539-9865-28a9d9d3248f
Premium or discount to NAV is fine too as long as its an informed decision.
My opinion -- pls correct/ clarify if am off.
Private valuations are most liberal, highest number on the table seems like the IPO playbook: hype retail into buying before reality has a chance to reset the price. $SPCX is playing this out in front of our eyes right now. IPO day was groundhog day 1 - only ~4.5% of the float actually tradeable. Now there's another groundhog day roughly every 20 days for the next ~125 days, each one unlocking more supply, until the float is 7-8x what it was at IPO. These seem to mostly always head downwards until the unlock dust settles for the 6 -12 mos following IPO. Few raise up.
VCX holds a lot of great logos — Anthropic, OpenAI, Databricks, SpaceX — through SPVs and restricted stakes. Those marks can move with each private round, but they're not exercisable. VCX can't sell into the hype; it only gets liquid once the lockup lifts, whatever the real price is by then.
VCX's last fully-private NAV was $18.97.
Expect the next print closer to $19-25 as recent markups flow through when their companies and shares are still pvt and locked up. When they ipo, they rerate in the next 180 days and drags it back down, IMO.
Most VCX restricted holders have a $10-11 cost basis, so Aug 13 unlock selling could push price into the lower teens for a few months, which might then pull buyers back toward that ~18-19 NAV range later this year and then long time to stabilise ~25
(posting prior to spcx earnings call)