Author is the president and CEO of the Community Preservation Corporation, a nonprofit multifamily finance company, and former commissioner of the City’s Department of Housing Preservation and Development.
For everyone cheering the downfall of the greedy landlord class - worth hearing what the non profits are saying about this.
Kathy is your only hope for a veto (but even if she tried she could get overridden )
I will never truly understand how assembly people and state senators continue to fuck over their constituents
I had this as a comment on a thread - but was curious what other people's opinions are.
My sense is that there are several things causing the recent implosions to the crypto market, and I think (if correct) are probably the catalysts that pull us back out to the other side.
In short, I think these are the main drivers:
Unpacking each:
b) Sustained high energy prices cause weakness globally. Outside of the countries benefiting from the AI boom (e.g. Korea, Japan, Taiwan), you might be selling your high risk / volatile crypto to fund just daily living expenses. Many stock markets are flat to down as captial is sucked in - with rising costs, you cant afford crypto's volatility.
The sustained blockade of hormuz (via iran blocking ships going out, US blocking iran from going out) props up energy prices. With high energy prices, you get the effect I mentioned in 1b - but it also cascades to higher prices in other goods as well. There's been a lot of chatter about inflation and potential fed action - and right now people seem to be pricing in 16bp of a hike by EOY.
The reason this matters (not just for crypto fwiw) is a rate hike causes folks to reprice the p/e (or rev multiple for non profitable cos) on their duration. That post is about semiconductor stocks, but I think crypto is a leading indicator as it is the most risk on part of the market.
On top of all of the above, think about the opportunity cost for capital . 10k% returns for memory stocks and the like have caused a lot of the more mercenary capital in crypto to leave - which has lowered demand inside of crypto.
Even on the institutional side, you have google doing a monster 80b+ raise (and the upcoming ipos of spacex / openai / anthropic) - theres a lot of institutional capital thats rotating to take advantage of short term opportunities.
Liquidity is competitive.
For better or worse, crypto is now political. There is a narrow window by which the Clarity act passes this session (was added to the senate calendar, maybe if all goes well it gets through by august). But theres a non zero chance the bank lobby and others make a big enoguh fuss about stablecoin yield that it just doesnt make it.
If midterms are a blue wave (personally this is my expectation) - crypto continues to flounder.
TLDR:
My sense is for crypto to really reverse you need:
Curious how others are seeing it