u/cynikles

Big changes ahead: 12 players released, Kimiyasu Kudo on manager wishlist

Well, that didn't take long.

With the Dragons' miserable 2026 season finally over, attention has quickly shifted toward rebuilding the roster — and finding somebody willing to inherit the manager's chair.

Kazuki Inoue confirmed that he would step down after two seasons in charge, with Chunichi finishing 2026 at 60–81–2 and bottom of the Central League. The club has yet to announce his replacement.

Before we get to that, however, the offseason roster churn has already begun.

Departures

Chunichi has informed the following players that they will not be offered contracts for 2027:

  • Hiroto Fuku (福敬登), P
  • Mizuki Miura (三浦瑞樹), P
  • Goki Oda (尾田剛樹), OF
  • Rintaro Tsujimoto (辻本倫太郎), IF
  • Kenta Bright (ブライト健太), OF
  • Naoto Chino (知野直人), IF
  • Shota Habu (土生翔太), P — developmental
  • Rii Kawakami (川上理偉), IF — developmental
  • Keishi Tsuda (津田啓史), IF — developmental

Bright and Tsujimoto are probably the most surprising, but Bright hasn't appeared in a game since June. Tsujimoto put up a respectable OBP on the farm, but like fellow 2023 draftee Tsuda, he's found to be out of a job. I can only speculate the team is higher on players like Mao Shimpo, Ryuku Tsuchida and Naiki Nakamura as future shortstop options/depth.

Three foreign players are also set to depart: Orlando Calixte, Humberto Mejía and Albert Abreu. Calixte and Mejía both leave after four seasons with the organisation, while Abreu's Dragons career ends after a single year. No real surprises here. Mejia stuck around for a lot longer than I think anyone expected after converting to the bullpen despite not really having any 'stuff'. Abreu was marred by injury and bad control. Calixte has merely met his use by date.

Miguel Sanó, meanwhile, has reportedly broadly agreed to return in 2027. Kyle Muller remains in discussions with the club, while Jason Vosler's future remains undecided.

Who Gets the Poisoned Chalice?

Perhaps the more interesting question is who will actually be managing whatever roster emerges from the winter.

The latest reporting has former SoftBank manager Kimiyasu Kudo emerging as a leading candidate. Kudo, an Aichi native, won three Pacific League pennants and five Japan Series during seven seasons managing the Hawks.

Earlier reports had linked a fairly broad collection of names to the vacancy, but Masumi Kuwata and Tatsuhiko Tsuji now appear to have fallen out of consideration. If Chunichi cannot secure an external appointment, former Dragon and Samurai Japan manager Hirokazu Ibata is reportedly the leading alternative.

That makes the next few weeks considerably more interesting.

The Dragons don't just have a manager to replace. After six consecutive B-Class finishes, they have an organisation to fix.

Kudo potentially offers a partner in the reconstruction of this organisation. If Kensuke Asada is keen to rebuild this thing, and he seems to be making the right moves in the background, then Kudo is a wonderful collaborator to bring in to get the team up to scratch. Kudo is a student of the game, pitched for decades and managed, arguably, the most modern organisation in the NPB. If Chunichi are still playing catch-up, maybe Kudo can point them to areas of improvement.

I am far less enthuses about an Ibata type. Ibata would be I think, ideal after this organisational structure has been rebuilt. He needs to inherit an infrastructure that will support him, not be the revolutionary that needs to build it himself.

Interesting changes ahead. I'll have some comments on the upcoming draft soon.

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u/cynikles — 11 days ago

Now...I'm not completely tuned out of this season, don't get me wrong, but my mind is always looking forward. Regardless of how this year turns out, there are a few things that are still a problem:

  • Seiya Hosokawa is the only consistent power hitter
  • Vosler will be a year older, and, honestly given his current trend, likely irrelevant.
  • Seiji Uebayashi has a super volatile profile, and could be boom or bust. (31 in 2027)
  • Miguel Sano may just be injured and then gone.
  • There are no obvious 'middle of the order' hitters coming up
  • Kenta Bright, Takaya Ishikawa and Kosuke Ukai are all in the "I dunno" pile.

So with all this in consideration, what then is to happen to the line-up? There needs to be either a big jump from some guys already in the system, or we should be going fishing in the US minors again next year.

So some of the good things. Kaito Muramatsu looks legit. He looks like an NPB hitter and not just a bang average one, a good one. I could see a Kazuyoshi Tatsunami like hitters profile. Doubles, good defence, and maybe 10 homers a year. Yuki Okabayashi, when he plays, is a good table setter. Yuta Ishii could yet be a decent hitter, so far so good in 2026. There are a few positive signs. Also, with the DH getting introduced next year, that will likely open up LF for someone. So here's where I'm dreaming. We will likely need guys who can provide damage to surround Okabayashi, Muramatsu, and probably Fukunaga. These guys are all good, but not "create runs on their own" types (aside from Hosokawa, who needs help). So here's my vs RHP line-up for 2027.

  1. CF Yuki Okabayashi

  2. 2B Kaito Muramatsu

  3. DH Seiya Hosokawa

  4. 1B Ryan Ward

  5. 3B Hiroki Fukunaga

  6. LF Jack Suwinski

  7. RF Seiji Uebayashi

  8. SS Ryuku Tsuchida

  9. C Yuta Ishii

I'm proposing that guys like Ward and Suwinski, who are 28 this year and have shown potential at some point in their careers, are the types of guys to target. Ward has put up very good numbers in AAA for the Dodgers over the years, while Suwinski's 2023 for the Pirates was a good career high, despite not really reaching those heights since. These are the types of guys you could target to fill the inevitable holes in the line-up. Maybe not the greatest idea for both imports to be lefties, but I think the idea is a good one, generally speaking. Plus, at 28-29, you could theoretically have them for a couple of years, and you could at least sell the dream that a good year in NPB could help give them a launchpad to return to the US.

I am also dreaming a little bit on Ryukyu Tsuchida showing enough power to push Tanaka out of the starting lineup, into being more of a platoon partner perhaps.

Anyway, I know I'm ahead of myself, but I like thinking ahead. And let's see how it plays out. Maybe Ward and Suwinski are targeted by NPB clubs next year.

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u/cynikles — 6 months ago

Something to read ahead of tonight's opening game against the Carp. I will still be working on an optimisation piece to tie everything together, but that will probably be at least another week away. Unfortunately, I couldn't hit my own deadline. Oh well! Enjoy.

This group of hitters could be really good, but the floor is probably not too much better than last year's group. Sano's floor in NPB is unknown. Fukunaga could be good, but he has to show that he can return to 2024 form, while Muramatsu at shortstop has to provide some oomph. Big questions over the trade-off on Ishii's offence vs. defence. It's pretty indefensible if he puts up similar numbers in 2026 and essentially becomes a black hole in the lineup.

u/cynikles — 7 months ago

WHAT IS THIS CONSISTENCY?

I found myself asking more questions about the bullpen than the lineup, so I went and did that first. Keeping with the pitchers, here are 15 guys in the Dragons organisation that will probably pitch in the first team in 2026, who they are and what they offer.

u/cynikles — 7 months ago