Shifting The Eye From #34 To 2034
This is how I view the upcoming season. Cautious optimism has paved the way for the Bucks this offseason. On paper, though, this team is subtracting Giannis and Bobby from a bad Bucks team and replacing them with Tyler Herro and role guys from a bad Heat team, a MLE signing still coming such as Jonathan Kuminga, and two late-lottery rookies. A new coach and better vibes will help, but make no mistake, this is a rebuild. You can window-dress a rebuild to keep the neighborhood happy, but this team needs a whole new foundation, as right now Kuzma, Turner, and Dame combine to make $70 million next season. I hope we can all agree that's not ideal.
We should not confuse being bad with tanking, though. There are no tank generals on this team. The Bucks aren't tanking. The old rebuild strategy of make a bad team and lose a lot of games does not apply. The rebuild strategy here should be to create as many assets as possible to then acquire draft capital via trade.
Barring any miracles, the Bucks next realistic window of relevance starts in 2034, when they’ll finally have had good draft picks in the three preceding years. I realize that is very far away. (I would define “relevance” as having a shot to win a playoff series, something that is not possible at the moment in a top-heavy East (Knicks, Celtics, Sixers, Pacers, Cavs, Raptors, Pistons all have legit title aspirations, while Heat and Hawks aren’t far off).) The Bucks mortgaged nearly every possible asset to try to keep Giannis happy, and so naturally this is what happens in the fallout. The Bucks don't have any core pieces right now to build a team around. The roster looks a little bit like an unsculpted glob of playdough, ready to be slowly refined and expanded.
There are a lot of similar talents on the roster. It can be messy trying to think of who's starting, who's getting minutes, etc. I think there is a much more useful way to look at it: through the lens of 2034. Here’s how I would group the roster.
Trade them now he's an asset let's not make this complicated… Or should they?
- Tyler Herro (26)
I've thought a lot about it. It counters what I just wrote up top. I think the Bucks are going to extend Herro for a LARGE sum of money. NBA twitter will get their laughs, but I get the logic: They don't control their 2 (two) picks over the next 4 years, so why not maintain a level of respectable play that might actually help the young guys develop. You can sell Herro to the fans as a fringe all-star, put a few butts in the seats. It would be fine. He’d help them win some games. It might also explain why the Bucks didn’t prefer the Jaylen Brown trade offer. There was no way he’d be happy in Milwaukee.
To be clear, I'd let the hometown kid cook for a few months and then kick him elsewhere at the deadline this year. Herro is best suited as a sixth man on a good team, not a guy in which you build a team around. Get a pick or two, move on. Focus on future assets.
If they do extend him, then you trade him in 3 years at age 30. Again, not the end of the world.
Trade them now if anyone wants them
- Myles Turner (30)
- Kevin Porter Jr. (26)
- Jericho Sims (27)
- Taurean Prince (32)
We'll take anything back. Second round pick. Cash considerations. Cold Diet Coke. You name it.
I liked the Turner signing when it happened. He was the starting center on a team that made it to the finals the year prior. He felt like a natural pairing with Giannis. Yet, he was awful. Turner is a negative asset at $26 million/year for 3 more seasons and lackluster production at age 30. We’ll see if he can revive his trade value this year.
Porter, Sims, and Prince all could be worth a call from a playoff team should injury strike. They are serviceable NBA players.
Trade him now he's expiring and we'll take your bad contract
- Kyle Kuzma (30)
I'm actually surprised this one hasn't happened yet. Did we miss the "here take my bad salary I'm too close to the second apron" part of the off-season? The Suns don't want us to take Jalen Green off their hands for Kuzma and a pick? We’ll even throw in Gary Harris. He went to Michigan State!
Wrong timeline for 2034 but good contracts and they can become assets in 1-2 years
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. (25)
- AJ Green (26)
Jaquez was the sickest hooper in the NCAA at UCLA. He is not the most skilled but he's a dog. I love him as a culture guy for Jenkins' new bucks. I think he plays the 4 in the same vein as Josh Hart and does a nice job. AJ Green can shoot as well as anyone in the world.
Tweeners
- Ryan Rollins (24)
- Jonathan Kuminga (24)
- Ousmane Dieng (23)
I love to joke that Ryan Rollins is SGA without the whistle. He made a big leap last year. Does he have another gear? At the very least, I expect more consistency as he matures in his role. I'm sure it hurt like hell when the Spurs traded Derrick White, the Pelicans traded Jrue Holiday, and the Hornets traded Lamelo Ball. I think that is eventually what happens to Ryan Rollins, but still much to see here. I like Rollins a lot.
I’m inserting Jonathan Kuminga here because I’m almost certain this is coming. Kuminga continues to be a theoretical talent more than anything tangible, but a worthy signing for a bad team with nothing to lose. Maybe he can become a tradeable asset. Right now, he’s just a guy who hasn’t panned out. Ditto for Dieng, although he hasn’t had nearly as much court time to prove himself.
Project 2034
- Kel'el Ware (22)
- Kasparas Jakuconis (20)
- Nate Ament (16*)
- Brayden Burries (21)
Trying to predict the future in 8 years is obviously insane work. These are the 4 guys who have a reasonable chance of still being on the team and entering their collective primes. No blue chips but there are reasons to be optimistic about each one. Burries is a dog on both ends of the floor who reminds me right now of Jared McCain. Ware is a tall ass dude with a tantalizing skill set that may or may not ever click into place. I get the appeal with Jakucionis. He's a floor general with vision, size, and shooting. Only problem is he doesn't have a lot of juice but still could be Goran Dragic.
I think it's important to understand where Ament is in development. We were told on draft night he still has open growth plates. That means his skeletal age is that of a 16-year-old boy (he'd be the best player in the 2028 high school class!). He's 2 years away from being 2 years away. Jakucionis isn't far ahead of him. There is no reason to rush either of these guys. They need muscle more than anything.
Lord if you're listening…
- Bogoljub Markovic (20)
Bogi is a no from me, but, to his credit, he's jacked now (he can help train Ament and Jaku) and an MVP (of the ABA (?)). Still not sure he can shoot and he looks like a guy who would get dunked on a lot. If he was draft eligible this year instead of last year, he'd still have been a 2nd round prayer. We'll see how Summer League goes.
So, all in all, I wouldn't get too worked up by whether KPJ is playing over Jakucionis or vice versa. Green playing over Dieng. So on and so forth. They all have roles to play in the rebuild. Create assets, acquire picks, develop players, occasionally win games. Do that for four years and by the time 2031 rolls around the Bucks should finally have great draft picks, and by 2034 they might just have a team.
I want to end on a positive note, as I’m sure the homers will tell me to chill. Rollins, Herro, Green, Jaquez, Ware. This is the lineup I most want to see. This is a pace and space lineup. No ball stoppers like KPJ and Kuz. Defensively it's hot cheese but on offense it could really hum! Basketball! It is fun! I’m still excited to watch next year’s team, even if they stink!
-danch