Tesla FSD v14 Lite is now rolling out to AI3 early-access customers.
As an owner of a Model 3 with AI3 hardware, this makes me happy!
As an owner of a Model 3 with AI3 hardware, this makes me happy!
"Robotaxis with nobody at the wheel are real, scaling, and stuck inside a handful of cities. The 'self-driving' car you can actually buy still needs you. Where autonomous driving really stands in 2026, and why the holdup isn't the technology."
Key Updates to FMVSS No. 135
UN Economic Commission for Europe’s (UNECE) World Forum for Harmonization of Vehicle Regulations adopted a new framework for AV safety:
For those who don't know, the Gartner Hype Cycle is a graphical framework used to represent the maturity, adoption, and commercial viability of specific technologies. It maps how emerging innovations progress through five distinct phases of public expectation and real-world application over time.
See image: https://i0.wp.com/newmr.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Hype-Cycle.png?ssl=1
I feel like we are in the "Slope of Enlightenment" now. Advances in AI, specifically transformers and VLMs have finally given us the tools to start solving the long tail. I feel like the AV industry really understands the challenges a lot better now. We are seeing some real practical use cases like robotaxis start to scale. Early adopters are starting to see some tangible benefits like being able to take a robotaxi to the airport. Also, we are starting to see safety benefits like when Waymo avoids a near collision with a person falling off of a scooter. And we are starting to see AVs enter that 'second generation" where they are no longer the crude prototypes.
I think we could be 2-3 years away from the "plateau of productivity". Waymo will continue to scale big. Tesla robotaxis will scale. Mobileye and Nuro are planning to launch robotaxis next year as well. Nvidia's Alpamayo is impressive. We are seeing more and more L2+. We could see actually useful L3 in a 2-3 years on consumer cars. So I feel like in a few more years, the tech will be mature enough and widespread enough. We will likely see thousands of robotaxis all over the US and in other places, as well as a lot of consumer cars with good L2+. So the tech will be maintream. And I think by then, the edge cases we see now like flooded streets, will be solved because AI reasoning will be more mature. The reliance on remote assistance will be much less. So the tech will be much more accepted and proven by then.
Too optimistic?
At AutoTech Detroit, Mobileye VP of Business Development Nimrod Brickman shares perspectives on the rapid rise of hands-free driving and what it takes to bring L2+ systems to scale.
"Uber, Nuro, and Lucid, today announced Houston as the second planned market for their robotaxi program, following the San Francisco Bay Area launch later this year. The companies expect to launch the service in Houston in mid-2027 exclusively through the Uber network, with plans to expand the service to dozens of additional markets over the coming years."
"Mobileye today announced plans to expand its robotaxi activities beyond supplying self-driving technology and into full ownership of an autonomous ride-hailing business. The new initiative, set to launch in a U.S. city in 2027, marks a significant evolution of Mobileye's strategy, combining its industry-leading autonomous driving capabilities with fleet operations, rider services, and mobility management into a single vertically integrated offering. The effort adds to Mobileye’s existing business model as a supplier of autonomous-driving technology to automakers and mobility providers worldwide, creating a new operating business while continuing to support customer deployments."
Waymo on X: "Today we’re announcing our latest fleet partnership with Element Fleet Management as we continue to optimize our commercial operations at scale. This collaboration will provide end-to-end operational services for our vehicles, beginning with an initial deployment in San Diego and expanding to additional markets over time."
Overall, he seemed to like the vehicle with the extra leg room and nice screens but experienced some phantom braking and indecisiveness with the self-driving itself. Keep in mind that these are just first impressions.
This seems really smart to me because it will give Waymo guaranteed monthly recurring revenue as they scale. And $29.99/month seems very reasonable to me for the benefits you get, especially if you are a heavy Waymo user.
Waymo published a paper detailing their new model for simulating how a competent human driver avoids a collision: "ReD expands upon these capabilities to model the full closed-loop cognitive process. ReD simulates how a careful and competent human driver updates their beliefs as a situation evolves, manages uncertainty about other road users' intentions, and selects the evasive maneuver, whether that is braking, swerving, or a combination of both."
From CEO Alex Kendall on X: "Exciting news to kick off London Tech week: Londoners can now sign up to experience u/wayve_ai autonomous rides on u/Uber which are launching soon (pending final regulatory approval)."
Alpamayo 2:
Short review of the Waymo Ojai with some driverless footage.