Anthony Albanese signals backdown on budget ‘death tax’ proposal
In the end it took only 24 hours for Anthony Albanese to signal a backdown on the mostpolitically damaging measure from last week’s budget – the “death tax” – and try to put Labor’s sales pitch back on track.
Of course, the Prime Minister is admitting a mistake and, once again, pulling the rug from under Jim Chalmers on a major Treasury tax initiative which humiliates and undermines the Treasurer.
On Thursday Albanese had 48 hours, maybe 72, to intervene into the post-budget nationwide sales campaign and make a significant concession to return to his message of helping younger people achieve the great Australian dream of home ownership.
There was a political and parliamentary deadline which threatened Albanese’s four-year Labor government with even greater political pain than it was suffering as tax changes to negative gearing, Capital Gains Tax and trusts fired a diverse and determined opposition.
Albanese had the choice of grasping the nettle, changing something and being able to claim he had “listened” to people or being “forced” into compromise. Albanese hates the idea he is “forced” to do anything for any reason.
But, really, there was no choice. Labor’s budget was off the rails, target audiences were angry and upset, there was confusion over what was happening and Albanese’s fourth anniversary as prime minister was mired with obtuse explanations.
It was all about selling a political message and credibility: Labor wanted to appeal to young people as it taxed older people and to bury its broken promises, lies or “changed position” on tax.
Albanese and Chalmers divided the media response – and outlets – into fair, friendly and downright hostile (peddling misinformation).
On the “fair and friendly” ABC Chalmers was asked about changes but declared he was “not anticipating any”.
Well, he may not have been “anticipating” any changes but if he had looked at the PM’s friendly appearances on FM radio and the ABC he should have expected some.
Albanese is a politician and has become far more pragmatic than ideological in his late years, especially since becoming prime minister.
Even on the softest of FM programs — where the FM PM can chat about footy, pop songs, crafted beer and his dog Toto — there were reluctant but unavoidable, apologetic queries about whether he had lied and was introducing a death tax.
Normally during these FM interviews there’s an audible appearance from Toto barking when the federal coppers arrive to take her boss away, but there seemed to be another sound during these interviews: it was the click of a light switch.
A light bulb had gone on in The Lodge.
As in the past, with the proposed tax on unrealised capital gains in superannuation and stage three tax cuts, Albanese overruled the Treasurer, and perhaps more pertinently the Treasury, to float in the “friendly media” the idea he “is open to changes on a proposal to tax trusts that the Coalition has described as a death tax”.
Not something Chalmers was “anticipating”.
While trying to hold firm on CGT changes, senior “government sources” were clearly signalling Labor was “open to a reversal or amendments on its contentious move to include discretionary testamentary trusts in its minimum 30 per cent tax on discretionary trusts”.
The politics were simple: the death tax scare had worked, with some justification. Labor needed to dump, or change, the death tax in order to do a deal in the Senate on the other changes.
How the politically lethal changes were allowed into the budget – changes opposed in the past by Paul Keating and Bill Shorten – remains a slow-burning question for Albanese in his fourth year as PM, and Chalmers after his fifth budget.
Albanese may hope his quick footwork has worked, but there’s more.
While the “senior government sources” and Chalmers insist there is no backtracking on CGT the cabinet secretary and prospective Treasurer – Andrew (The Boy) Charlton who is in for the long haul – has signalled ongoing trouble among the young “tech bros (and sisses)” over start-ups and CGT.
Albanese has moved to head off a major political problem with a signalled preparedness to at least change the death tax.
But after ten days of Labor’s budget train running off the tracks, the PM standing on the line waving a lamp and a white flag may not be enough to avert a wreck.
Albanese is doing what he can politically but, to turn around a Keating phrase, “bad policy is bad politics”.