What does the future hold?
Hey guys, just wanna preface this by saying I'm an amateur investor and this has been a hell of a ride so far. The community's been great and I look forward to many more years with you guys!
It's been a pretty good few months for Intel overall. To name just a few news bits:
- Apollo buyback
- Apple deal
- Terrafab deal
- JP Morgan LBT interview.
I don't want to get ahead of myself but I'd just like to present 3 questions that I'm asking myself right now, and get a discussion going:
1. Is Intel currently at fair value?
I think it might even currently be priced above its fair value, but this is highly dependent on their execution for deals that have already been announced (AWS, Apple, Terrafab, Google etc). It seems to be riding some macro tail winds for now, so I don't think we will have an answer for a year or so.
2. What is Intel's fair value assuming flawless execution?
I'd say on par with TSMC, so in the range of $300.
3. What is the overall structural outlook of computing in the next 10 years? And what does this mean for Intel's fair value?
The last 3 years have been tumultuous for computing, so much so that predicting the next 10 is probably impossible.
Assuming this round of AI and humanoid robotics fizzles out, I'd say Intel is capped at around the $300 mark. But if the AI revolution does deliver and the economy finds a use for it, would it be fair to say that $300 is the baseline for the decades to come?