u/godisnotgreat21

Basically how much are Californians willing to pay to connect SF to LA with a one seat ride without any additional support from the federal government. Keep in mind that these are cost estimates that build this by 2040, so massive amounts of upfront taxpayer dollars and/or bonds/loans would be necessary to actually finish building SF-LA in 14 years. I have added in the costs for Gilroy-San Jose that the Authority (inappropriately) left out of their cost estimates. I have removed costs for LA-Anaheim as that doesn’t impact the travel time comparison. I’ve also added some rough AVL electrification costs. All cost numbers are very ballpark, but generally in the range of the costs I believe.

At the CA Senate Transportation Committee the LAO said the Authority told them that the Blended Phase 1 SF-LA express travel time is around 3 hour 30 minutes. I’ve added 40 minutes for the removal of the tunnel for the electrified AVL option.

View Poll

A New Plan for California High-Speed Rail

1. Build a Madera-Bakersfield High-Speed Rail Early Operating Service (EOS, 2033).

Cut 34 miles between Madera and Merced initially. Saving ~$3-4 billion in ROW, utility relocations, civil infrastructure, track, OCS, and the Merced Station.
Have Gold Runner (previously Amtrak San Joaquins) trains run onto HSR infrastructure from Road 26 to Ave 12 New Madera Station so that passengers can cross-platform transfer to a HSR train at Madera. Millions of people will be doing this transfer every year, it needs to be cross-platform for operational efficiency and passenger comfort. Madera gets incredibly hot in the summer months. A shade structure covering this entire platform is necessary. Gold Runner trains can come off the main line of BNSF for 8 miles with this change, which will help on-time performance.
The savings from cutting the Merced-Madera section can be used to keep Bakersfield’s station in downtown Bakersfield, saving money over the long term without the need to spend tens of millions on a stranded asset of the North Bakersfield Interim Station. Bakersfield is the San Joaquin Valley’s second largest city, it should have a permanent station built that is centrally located to serve the entire city’s residents.

2. Seek a Private Sector Partner (PSP) to extend Central Valley HSR infrastructure to Gilroy or Palmdale. Whichever direction the PSP wants to go in, work with Caltrain and Union Pacific (Gilroy) or Metrolink (Palmdale) on electrification to that HSR section to start the Initial Operating Service (IOS, 2040).

Option 1: Partner with Caltrain and Union Pacific to extend electrification from San Jose to Gilroy and build HSR infrastructure from Madera to Gilroy. Enables a San Francisco-Bakersfield IOS.
Option 2: Partner with Metrolink to electrify the Antelope Valley Line from Palmdale to Los Angeles and build HSR infrastructure from Bakersfield to Palmdale. Enables a Madera/Fresno-Los Angeles IOS.
If a PSP cannot be secured, extend the Madera-Bakersfield HSR infrastructure to Palmdale. This would allow a baseline intercity HSR service that connects the established Northern and Southern California passenger rail networks with a high-speed service that eliminates the long-standing (and ridership hindering) bus bridges in Bakersfield and connects Gold Runner, HSR, and Metrolink’s Antelope Valley Line together. If Metrolink does complete electrification of the Antelope Valley Line, then this plan would allow for one-seat rides between Madera/Fresno and Los Angeles Union Station on HSR and Metrolink infrastructure with HSR trainsets. In Madera and Palmdale, track connections to existing conventional rail lines can be constructed to provide independent utility, allowing for one-seat rides from the Bay Area and Sacramento to Los Angeles and San Diego with existing equipment or new hybrid trainsets. The CAHSR Authority should study what the capital and operational costs and ridership potential of a Madera-Palmdale HSR operational service would be and report the findings in next year’s Project Update Report (2027 PUR).

3. Complete Gilroy-Palmdale HSR infrastructure with electrification of Caltrain and Metrolink to allow for one-seat rides between San Francisco and Los Angeles/Anaheim (Blended Phase 1 Service, 2050).

4. Partner with Brightline West to develop the High Desert Corridor for one-seat rides between the Central Valley and Bay Area to Las Vegas.

5. Complete tunnel sections between Palmdale and Los Angeles to improve speeds and reduce travel times and extend HSR infrastructure to Merced (Full Phase 1 Service).

What do you think is the best SF-LA one-seat express travel time-to-cost ratio that the state should fund if there is no additional federal funds coming to the project?