u/heavendetta

Hello! I am back once more with my theories on Umineko, but now regarding Episode 2. I must say though, this episode really messe with my head a LOT. I feel like I'm mentally exhausted from trying to theorize on what the fuck is going on, but no matter how hard it gets, I am NOT giving up! The only one who can decide what I believe in is me, and I'll stubbornly decline Beatrice's existence to the end.

If Episode 1 made it vague on whether magic exists or not, Episode 2 said "fuck it" and screamed to my face "MAGIC EXISTS". However, screaming isn't enough to prove it. After all, almost every instance of magic that happens is outside of Battler's POV, and he only sees it with his own eyes once he resigns and admits Beatrice exists.

"Well, isn't that enough to prove that magic is real, then?" Yes, and no. Once we see magic through the protagonist's lens, we shouldn't be able to deny it. After all, wouldn't it be unfair if the story straight up lied to its readers? If there's no room to question anything, then it becomes a fact. And that's no good, that's no goddamn good at all! That's why there must be a crack somewhere, that leaves room for reason and logic to take over fantasy!

The conclusion I reached is extremely simple. Following the same logic, if everyone believes something, it becomes real. Once Battler started believing in Beatrice, then everything else truly happened, exactly as told. Magic exists, and the culprit is the Golden Witch. The story never lied to me - if I, as a reader, believe what I saw, then what I saw really happened. It becomes a fact. But if me, the reader, or a character of the story, denies it, it didn't necessarily happen. Battler momentarily accepted the witch's existence, then, in his eyes, magic became real. However, Rosa denied her existence, leaving a crack. And Battler himself gets back on his feet and denies Beatrice once again, expanding that crack. Never losing my faith in reason for a second, this can only mean one thing: the culprit is human, and is one of the original 18 people in the island!

Sorry for the yapfest. I'm really having a lot of fun with this story, so I wanted to explain my logic. I'm just kinda bad at using few words when explaining my thoughts. Though, with all that said, I should jump right in.

I will talk about a few things regarding this Episode:

Main Questions

Human Beatrice and witch Beatrice

╰ The Shannon and Kanon problem

The First Twilight
The Second Twilight

╰ The Locked Room problem

The Seventh and Eighth Twilights
The Fourth, Fifth and Sixth Twilights

Extra Stuff

Kyrie has a daughter??
Seven Sisters of Purgatory Symbolism

Before I start, I must make some things clear. One of them is that, while I believe magic and witches exist in this world, I won't take magic into consideration for any of my reasoning, and every single murder was done by human hand. This does not mean I will completely deny what happened in every single Twilight, just that I will approach it with a more grounded view.

However, I am absolutely certain the narrator is lying to me, especially considering what the siblings say when discussing about the mysterious guest. Eva says it herself: "No matter what is shown to us now on Rokkenjima, it can't be accepted as truth." This and Kyrie emphasizing that made me realize this was a message of the author to us, the readers, to not accept anything at face value.

However, in Episode 1, I tried the approach of "I won't believe anything that Battler doesn't see", but this time I will take a different one. If Battler doesn't see something, I will doubt its veracity, sure, but I will still take into consideration. This Episode has SO MANY strange scenes that seemingly leads to nowhere, that made me rethink what I was doing. I thought of this game as a battle of wits between Battler and Beatrice, and I'd be seeing the mystery through Battler's lens, but it's not that. My role in this story is completely different. The story is being lied to me for a reason. I am seeing these flashbacks and other POVs for a reason. This isn't only a game of chess between Battler and Beatrice… it's also a game of chess between me and the author! And to deny what happens outside of Battler's POV is to ignore every single move your opponent makes, except for when he moves the queen! And now that I reached this realization, I will try to win with the best of my abilities!

…There is only one problem, though.

I am really bad at chess. So don't expect much from me.

Human Beatrice and Witch Beatrice

So, the first mystery of this Episode is very straightforward. Just who is Beatrice, after all? If she's not a 19th person, then that must mean someone is pretending to be her, right? But if that's the case, then how did Shannon and Kanon meet her two years ago? (Assuming it's two years since that's when Kanon was recruited and Gohda is nowhere to be seen. Unsure if it's been actually two years since the flashbacks.)

Well, if we assume Beatrice isn't real at all, I have two theories. A grounded one and a weird one. This may turn into a pattern in this post, as the weird theory I have makes the plot completely different in my eyes.

The first conclusion I reached was: Eva is playing with Shannon here. My main reasoning behind of this is Beatrice repeating exactly what Eva said to her earlier that day - "Have you forgotten to be grateful for your education? Know your place. George is the eldest son carrying Father's blood. He's a person who may bear the burden of the Ushiromiya family someday in the future. To answer to that expectation, he has studied tirelessly, entered a wonderful college, and is getting wonderful grades. Did you really think you could snatch George away, you uneducated, incompetent, unqualified, uncultured servaaaant?"

While I understand this scene is supposed to bring Shannon's insecurities to light, I can't help but notice that Beatrice's wording doesn't change at all from Eva's, going so far as calling Kinzo "father". Of course, this is Beatrice bullying Shannon, so it makes sense why she'd use the exact same words, but I can't help but wonder if maybe this was all a slip-up on Eva's part, and she's pretending to be Beatrice to play even more with her feelings. Eva is the most perfect fit for a Beatrice stand-in out of all of the siblings and servants, down to the way she speaks. This would also explain how she knows so well of George's situation, the woman he's about to meet, and Shannon's feelings for him. She's also on the island the first time Shannon meets Beato, so it makes sense, right..? It fits too perfectly. Makes too much sense. That's why it became my first theory, and also why I discarded it almost immediately.

It's too convenient! Why would Eva have Beato's dress? Even if she was plotting killing the siblings from this point, and was planning to use the dress later on, why would she bring it to the island in a visit to ask Kinzo for money? And that wouldn't explain Shannon's second encounter with Beatrice, either. But if not her, who else? Let's see who's in the island at the moment of the first and secound encounters with witch Beato.

Siblings:

Kinzo, Krauss, Natsuhi - Lives in the island.
Eva, Hideyoshi, George - Present on the island during the first encounter with Beato. It isn't clear if they are still there on the second one.

Servants:

Genji, Gohda - Impossible stand-ins for Beatrice.
Kanon, Shannon - Met her.
Kumasawa, Lunon - In regards to Lunon, not enough information, but I don't think it'd be either of them.

Then, who else could it be? A mystery character who isn't named yet? Or is it really Eva, and she went to the island the second time just to mess with Shannon? It didn't make any sense. But then, I had a sudden realization, thanks to a theory I happen to see on u/SoBasicallyItsMagic's post about their theories for Ep 1. Normally, I wouldn't take this into consideration, but it clicked in my head, so it became my main theory for the time being.

The Shannon and Kanon problem.

Anyways, I noticed that only Shannon and Kanon saw Beatrice. Shannon and Kanon are, by far, the most mysterious between the people in the mansion. They are the only ones who call themselves furniture, aside from Genji (Gohda and Kumasawa are way too human, as opposed to them), and share a weird bond that doesn't seem to click timeline-wise for me. If my memory is right, then these are what we know about their relationship:

Shannon and Kanon lived together at the Fukuin House, an orphanage Kinzo funds.
They were separated ten years ago, when Shannon was invited to work at the mansion at an early age of 6. This would mean she is 16 years old during the events of the game.
Kanon started working at Rokkenjima 2 years ago. He is stated to be Shannon's "little brother", so let's say he's 1 year younger than her. Though I'm inclined to believe they are of the same age.
Supposedly, they know each other more than anyone because they… grew up together?

That's not right. Something is not clicking here.

Sure, you could argue that maybe they were stuck like glue to each other when they were kids, but they were still apart for eight years, and were separated at a young age. Shannon was almost unrecognizable to Battler even though they were apart for six years. Sure, they weren't together the whole time, and Kanon had more time to catch up, but still… isn't it odd that during the first encounter with Beatrice, which supposedly took place two years ago, a little after Kanon started working in the mansion, they were already so close?

Kanon is only near Shannon in three occasions:

When Shannon is alone
When Shannon is with Beatrice
When Shannon is near other servants/Kinzo

So… let me get this straight. The only times they are seen in the same room is when Shannon is alone, Shannon is with a person that may not even exist, and when Shannon is with the most mysterious group of characters in the mansion?

Not only that, but Shannon always knows about interactions involving Kanon under the pretense of "Kanon told me", and vice-versa. On its own, this doesn't mean anything, but when you group all of it together, it starts to get a little too convenient.

At this point, I think you know where I'm getting at. But if you don't, let me spell it out for you: Kanon and Shannon are the same person. This would explain a lot of the events in Episode 1 as well, such as: they were the ones who gave Maria the umbrella, they also seem to know of magic as seen later in this chapter, so they would know how to draw the magic circles, they were in the mansion at the time of the First Twilight, and after "Shannon"'s death, Kanon also has no alibi for the Second Twilight. But that's not the main focus point here, and I'll spare some of the details as I plan to explain them as I go on.

Regarding their physical appearance, it's not that difficult to get in Kanon's getup. Remove the buttoned shirt, cover the thigh, put on a wig and made some adjustments to the clothing style… and done. They even have the same eye color. And regarding their interactions: they never talk at the same time to someone else. There is also a scene that Kanon is crying while talking to Shannon, but the moment Genji shows up, he completely disappears. Shannon never notices when Kanon approaches, even stating that his steps make no sound.

But then, what about Beatrice? She saw both of them together at the same time, right?

Well, I have two answers to propose. The first one is quite simple - she knows they are the same person, and is simply going along. As a witch, she may be able to peek into their mind, and see that they share the same consciousness. I don't think Shannon is straight up lying, and I read their situation more akin to DID. Kanon seems to be a Protector to Shannon, and primarily shows up whenever she needs help with something, or seems to be in danger. Beato knew Kanon was watching, so she directly spoke to him to address him literally - this assumes this Beatrice is really a witch, and not Eva or anyone else. But for the sake of this theory and the rules I established, I must propose an alternative that denies Beatrice existence.

And for that, I bring the second answer. Beatrice is ALSO a part of Shannon/Kanon! She first shows up when Shannon is talking directly to the portrait, and isn't seen by anyone else except Shannon/Kanon. This gives a new meaning to her saying exactly what Eva told Shannon. It was Shannon reflecting on her insecurities, and seeking a refuge on the Golden Witch, who doesn't exist. Of course, this isn't a perfect theory, and I can't show you more evidence to support it. But it makes sense to me, for now! And it makes it more clear that the culprit might actually be Shannon/Kanon.

What about Human Beatrice, then?

It's simple. Human Beatrice isn't the same entity as Witch Beatrice. You could argue Human Beato doesn't even exist, as Battler never sees her directly until he surrenders… but since all of the siblings saw her, and OG Battler recognizes her existence when she first shows up, then let's say she's real. But if she's not a 19th person, then… who?

Alibis:

Rosa, Maria, Kyrie, Genji - Saw and interacted with human Beato when she arrived
Battler, George, Jessica - Supposedly together at the guesthouse
Rudolf, Krauss, Natsuhi, Eva, Hideyoshi - Discussing the inheritance in the parlor
Gohda, Kinzo, Nanjo, Kumasawa - No alibis, but impossible stand-ins for Beatrice

Suspects:

Shannon, Kannon - Interacted with human Beato in the VIP room, but completely alone

Oh my god. It's the Shannon Kanon problem AGAIN. When Rosa and Maria interacted with Beato, they were together - they can confirm each other's alibis. The same can go for Kyrie and Genji. But what about Shannon and Kanon? And not only that, but human Beato also knows of her past interactions with Shannon/Kanon?

As for the "magic" Rosa witnessed, since she conveniently forgot it happened, it is possible it never happened at all. But since Og Battler reacted, it can be some kind of trick involving switching the candy as he initially said. As for the golden butterflies, maybe some kind of hallucinogen effects is at play here? Not sure. It's good to note that Beatrice already have Kinzo's ring from the get-go, even though he throws it out of the window only when the typhoon starts.

Also, isn't it interesting how human Beato disappears during all of Episode 2, only showing up in three occasions - the Twilights? This brings a problem. Kanon dies in the Second Twilight, alongside Jessica. Since Jessica's dead, she can't really explain what really happened, so the Beaton theory stands. The same is true for the Fourth, Fifth and Sixth Twilights, which all happened together - Shannon was one of the victims, so Beaton theory stands. But what about the First Twilight, in which all of the siblings saw what happened? Well, they died, so… wait-

All of the siblings?

The First Twilight

Victims:

Rudolf, Kyrie, Krauss, Natsuhi, Eva, Hideyoshi - Last seen at the chapel, where they were talking with Beato after she showed proof the gold exists. They died inside the chapel, and were not brought there. The crime happened during the night, when everyone was sleeping.

No real alibis for this case, but let's list possible main suspects.

Suspects:

Rosa - Together with the siblings in the chapel. NEVER acknowledges this, and acts as if she doesn't know.
Shannon/Kanon - Beaton theory. Shannon was the one who found the memo, and we know the culprit wants the bodies to be found. No one would have gone to the chapel otherwise.

Unlikely Suspects:

Other servants and Nanjo - Mostly if we deny human Beato's existence, but then it wouldn't make sense why the siblings reunited there. They are possible accomplices though.
Cousins - Sleeping together in the Guesthouse. I doubt any of them could have pulled off what happened there.
Kinzo - Supposedly slept until 20:00 of the next day.

Beatrice adds a new rule this Episode: to make things more interesting, she will prove devils - anything she speaks in red is the absolute truth. I took notes of everything she said in red, and I'll include it here to help theorizing.

Spoken in red:

Regardless of whether they were alive or dead, the six definitely entered through the front door
Only one key to the chapel exists
It is impossible to unlock the lock to the chapel with anything but the chapel's key
When the door to the chapel is locked, it prevents any and all methods of entry or exit
This morning, Rosa definitely took an envelope of Maria's handbag, and from that obtained the genuine key to the chapel
The key to the chapel truly was the object inside the envelope I gave Maria
The envelope I handed over to Maria and the one Rosa opened are the same thing.

Battler already solved the Locked Room problem of this case for us. The chapel was already unlocked beforehand, and all the culprit needed to do was to lock it with the key in Maria's handbag, and return it once the crime was done. But I started wondering - why did Battler wake up when Rosa walked into the room, but not when the culprit did the same thing? I'm not sure if I misunderstood the situation or not, but Battler doesn't seem to be a heavy sleeper. Well, now I ask you - who is the only person the game explicitly say has silent steps? Exactly! Kanon. I don't think any lines should be taken lightly - so anything I find interesting, I try to keep in mind.
So, following this theory, then we have a culprit. Beaton, once again. However, we need to address the elephant in the room. What was she doing in the chapel? Why was she there? And why is this never acknowledged for the rest of the episode?! Is Rosa an accomplice? But if she is, why did she deny the witch's existence? She supposely saw magic with her own eyes, right?! So what happened? She wasn't there at all? Did this really have no impact on the story? Of course not. I can't see it because I'm looking from my own perspective, but what if we flip over the chessboard? Not to see from Rosa's perspective, but from our opponent's perspective.
If I was writing this story, why would I show this to my reader? To tell the reader to be wary of Rosa. Not necessarily suspect her, but at least pay attention to her. In Episode 2, Rosa acts as the "guardian" of the cousins after their parents die. This was Natsuhi's role in Episode 1, and there's even some parallels between Rosa's relationship with Maria and Natsuhi's relationship with Jessica. However, Rosa in Episode 2 is a lot colder to everyone, caring only for her and Maria's safety.
But what if there's more to this the reader don't know? What if "chasing out the wolves" is just an act she put? We know the Third Twilight in Episode 1 served the purpose to resume the ritual. If the letter wasn't planted in the room, then they would all have survived until time ran out. But Rosa actively separated the group. She also knew that the key was inside Maria's letter, and even though we see her logic, it's still quite a leap to assume the key to the chapel was inside the letter from a "Open this when the time comes". Sure, Rosa is REALLY smart, but also REALLY suspicious. I am not saying Rosa is the culprit, but rather, an accomplice. Rosa WAS the wolf, all this time. She was just surrounded by sheep.
I'm not sure how, but Rosa joined Beaton's side in the reunion at the chapel, and for some reason offered to help her. She acted as our guardian as a way to control the situation herself, and slowly sent the sheep to their demise. That would also confirm that she's the one who put the letter in the table at the end of the Episode. Anyways, I'm not sure, but I really don't trust Rosa. There's the slim possibility she's Beatrice, as my Beaton's theory is not perfect and has some weak points, but I can't figure out how this would work unless there's multiple Beatrices, which is very likely but I haven't put too much though into it yet.

Second Twilight

Victims:

Jessica & Kanon - Fought agaisnt Beatrice's furnitures in a battle to the death. Jessica died with a stake in her back, while Kanon's body disappeared.

Alibis:

Battler, George, Maria, Rosa, Nanjo, ~~Gohda~~ - Together at the chapel
Kinzo, Shannon, Genji - Supposedly at the study

Suspects:

Kumasawa - No alibi
Gohda - He was the only one with Kanon and Jessica before getting sent away

Spoken in red:

The only master keys are the ones held by the servants, one key each.
There are absolutely no types of hidden doors. This door is the only way in or out. The only way to lock this door is with Jessica's single key or the master keys, only one of which is held by each servant.
The window is locked from the inside.
Kanon was killed in this room.
When locked, it does not permit any form of entry or exit. (Door)
No trick could have the effect of locking the door from the outside without using a key.
At the time of Jessica's corpse discovery, only Battler, George, Maria, Rosa, Genji, Gohda, Shannon, Kumasawa and Nanjo were in Jessica's room. The corpse of Jessica is also included, of course. Therefore, both in the case of Jessica's room and the case of the servant room, no humans exist that you were not aware of. No one is hiding.

First of all, the chapter starts at 06:43. So, unless Gohda was REALLY fast and efficient, and Jessica's interaction with Kanon lasted at maximum two minutes, I don't think he would be able to commit the murder, clean himself, remove Kanon's body from the scene and go to the chapel. So I think he's clear.
The chapel alibis are the only ones I can believe. If we follow the Shannon = Kanon theory, then the study interactions happened either before or after the crime happened. Although this crime delivers quite a blow to this theory, as Beatrice says plainly in red: "Kanon was killed in this room", but not everything is lost yet. "Kanon was killed in this room" might refer to a "metaphorical death".

Death, by definition, is the end of life. But what is the definition of "life"? Or rather, what can be defined as an "existence"? When Beatrice says "Kanon was killed in this room", does she refer to the "body" Kanon, or the "person" Kanon?

If you don't get where I'm going, bear with me for a second. Biologically, a living being reaches the point of death once its body loses all functions. Being more specific, it dies when its heart, lungs and brain stops working. So, the moment Beatrice declares Kanon was killed in this room, it means "Kanon", the person, died. But what if "Kanon" is part of a whole, and his "death" means his body won't ever breathe as "Kanon" ever again?

"Kanon" is a fake name, so you can take this in some different ways - the furniture "Kanon" died, and he's now living as whatever his real name is, or, if we look at the Kanon/Shannon theory, it just means we have to remove the "Kanon" from "Kanon/Shannon". Kanon is never showing up again, and now only Shannon is in full control. As for how the Second Twilight was fulfilled with a metaphorical death, it's simple. The same way Kanon can be considered dead for Beatrice's Red Truth, he can be considered dead for the Second Twilight, because Kanon truly died. He will never show up ever again. He will never breath or think as Kanon ever again. His consciousness died alongside Jessica in that room, and how that happened is even simpler, but now we have to get into HOW the murder happened.

The Locked Room Problem

I won't take too long to explain this time, because the solution I have in mind is quite simple. The culprit is Shannon/Kanon, there are five master keys, Kanon's master key was inside the room alongside the key to Jessica's room. However, if the culprit has two master keys, the answer is in plain sight.

In our vision, Kanon fights agaisnt Beatrice and her furniture and ultimately dies in doing so. Jessica protects him, andd dies with a stake in her back. Now, I'm not sure how the scene played out in reality, but I'm sure of one thing - the stake being in Jessica's back is intentional, and is definitely alluding to a "betrayal" of sorts.

Kanon may have actually fought the culprit, but if he's also Beatrice, this might also represent a mental struggle. I'm not saying its a "evil alter" kind of situation, but actually a struggle agaisnt his duty and goal. In this struggle, Jessica may have offered to help, and when she turned her back he ended up killing her, and the pain of killing her might be what caused Kanon's metaphorical death. He killed his love, the element that made him human. In a single day, he lost his status as "furniture" and his status as "human" at once. After that, could he even be called a living being anymore?

After that, all that was left to do was leave the room, and lock her from outside. This was done by using Shannon's key. This reasoning is valid for every single locked room in this Episode! However, it can't be used to explain Episode 's locked room yet, and that one is something I'm yet to discover.

If we take it one step further, considering Genji was together with Shannon at Kinzo's study at some moment in time, it's possible he might be the "killer", and Shanon/Kanon human Beatrice. Or maybe the killer is Rosa herself! When she goes up the stairs to Kinzo's study, Beatrice's butterfly lands in her back and Beatrice herself shows up to say "So, how will you entertain me with this next one? There are still many pieces left". Disregard what I said earlier - Rosa is DEFINITELY a suspect. This would entail "Jessica and Kanon" chapter is happening at the same time as "New Rule", which makes a lot more sense, and removes Rosa's alibi, moving her, Genji and Shannon into major suspects.

As for the reason why I suspect Genji is because this Episode also shows some scenes where Genji is really skilled with knives, and almost every death this episode was caused by a deep cut. Though he randomly shoots a knife at a golden butterfly at some point, and while I'm not sure what this means, it might hint that Genji is not completely in the witch's side..? Although he is the only one who can pull off the next set of twilights.

Seventh and Eighth Twilights

Victims:

Nanjo, Kumasawa - had their throats slit

Alibis:

Rosa, Maria, George, Battler - together in the parlor
Kinzo - alone in his study (not really an alibi but cmon)

Suspects:

Genji, Shannon, Gohda - all together at the scene of crime

Spoken in red:

The servant room key are in the key box in the center of the servant room. All of those keys are inside the key box.
Entry and exit are impossible except for the single door and the single window. And those were both locked. The door and the window do not permit any kind of entry or exit when they are locked. It is impossible to unlock the door without the servant room key or a master key.
No one exists in this room except your group. 'Your group' refers to Battler, George, Maria, Rosa, Genji, Gohda and Shannon. Therefore both in the case of Jessica's room and the case of the servant room, no humans exist that you were not aware of. No one is hiding.
No method exist by which the doors can be locked from the outside without using a key. Regarding the windows, no method exists by which they could somehow be locked from the outside.
You are incompetent! hiiihhihihhihihihihihihihihihihi!!
There are only five master keys.

This one is tricky. This locked room can be explained with the reasoning I used for the last one too, but I'm unable to figure out what the whole fake Kanon thing means. The abnormal way the victims died and the delay to have them exposed as the Seventh and Eighth Twilights makes me think it wasn't intended for them to die at that point, but then what in the WORLD happened? A Kanon impersonator? And the reason Genji didn't believe him is because he knows Shannon/Kannon true identity? But that doesn't make any sense! Who the hell would impersonate Kanon in this situation? Who would have time to dress up as him? We know for a fact all of the siblings died. Our option is to once again enter the metaphorical realm, but that's way too convenient and even then, I wouldn't be able to find a fitting explanation. Gohda also witnessed the scene, and unless he's being blackmailed or is in cahoots with the culprits, it wouldn't explain the whole "Shannon went to the Boiler Room just to grab cobwebs".

I'm giving this one up. However the way it's done really makes it seem like they weren't supposed to die now, although Genji almost definitely was the one who did the finishing touches on the Twilights. As for why, he's "furniture", and he's just doing what he needs to do.

Fourth, Fifth and Sixth Twilights

Alibis:

Rosa, Maria, Battler - Together the whole time
Kinzo - In his study (not really an alibi but cmon)

Suspects:

Genji - the only one left alive. But it wasn't him.

Spoken in red:

Natsuhi's room was exactly the same, just like usual! The door and the windows were locked from the inside.
There were no frauds or tricks, no means of secret passage nor places in which to hide! Natsuhi's own key was in George's pocket, and locked inside the room. That leaves only the five master keys, and 'Rosa' was holding all of them!
And while I'm at it, the parlor is the same. The key to the parlor itself is sealed away in the servant room. So unlocking it without a master key is impossible! The locked-room definition of the room is the same as always!

I'll try to keep this one brief. Shannon is the murderer, and she killed herself at the end so the ritual could be concluded. In the ninth twilight, Beatrice is resurrected, and we know that once everyone believes in something, it starts being reality. This locked room doesn't matter, because the killer is also one of the victims.

After that, I don't think there's much to theorize - Battler gives up, and reality becomes fantasy. I could theorize George and Shannon were the true Second Twilight, mainly because of deadd George's text, but I couldn't make it work. With that, I think we're done with the twilights.

Okay! This took a WHILE and a LOT of my brainpower. I admit that I'm a bit exhausted and insecure about my theories. I'm also a bit afraid to be theorizing too much instead of just letting the story unfold. If you read to this point, THANK YOU!! And sorry if I ended up being corny at some moments - since I knew I was going to write a lot, I tried to make it a fun read at the very least. I'm really not that good at theorizing stuff, and this is my first time doing this so seriously, even though I'm a huge fan os mysteries.

However, I'm still not done! There's a bit more I want to write, mainly extra stuff:

First of all…

Kyrie has a daughter??

"No, I don't mind. ...I'm the one who should be apologizing. As a pair of mothers with daughters, we should talk more often. Every signle time we meet, we end up talking about something shady..." - Rosa, talking to Kyrie

So, at first I wrote this down as a joke in my notes (yea I started taking them after Ep 1!!), but the more I think about it, the less the wording makes sense in my mind. Sure, this could be referring to Battler, but the way Rosa says it makes it seem like Kyrie has a biological daughter here. It also wouldn't make a lot of sense to say this specifically to Kyrie, as everyone in the room have children. This sticked out to me, and maybe I'm thinking too much about something that's not that important, but I wonder if Kyrie has a daughter and we'll meet her in the future episodes..?

The Seven Sisters of Purgatory

Once again, I want to try to take a shot as to why each Stake ended up going into each victim. Let's get right into it! This Episode added descriptions for each sister, and each one of them perfectly describes the character's sin on this chapter. However, I want to try to deepen the analysis a bit.

Jessica (Asmodeus, Lust): "At that age where she wants a boyfriend. Would give up her life for love" - Jessica wants a boyfriend so she's not left out in her group of friends and is not looked down by her classmates. Although her feelings for Kanon are genuine, she was ready to accept anyone as a boyfriend, seeing relationship only as a goal to achieve.
Kanon (Satan, Wrath): Kinda the same as Episode 1.
Shannon (Mammon, Greed): "Really greedy. Once she decides she wants something, she will sacrifice anything and everything to get it." - Shannon was ready to give up her and her lover's life if that meant getting married to him. She was going to accept that ring no matter what happened to her and the others around her. She wanted to be more than furniture, and wanted more than she was supposed to have.
Gohda (Beelzebub, Gluttony): "In fact a gourmet. Would use any ingredients to make a good meal, even her own body." - Gohda was ready to cook a last meal even if it was poisoned. Not only that, but he wanted to bear the one-winged eagle crest, and be officially recognized by Kinzo as a servant. Although that might be more related to Greed, it's not like Gluttony and Greed are that far apart.
George (Lucifer, Pride): "Haughty and arrogant. But actually feels pleasure from submission." - George genuinely wanted to fight agaisnt the whole Ushiromiya family to protect his relationship with Shannon. Not only that, but he was also making plans for the future as they were given. This one is a bit more shaky, as I'm not so sure what more to talk about.
Nanjo (Belphegor, Sloth): Same as Episode 1.
Kumasawa (Leviathan, Envy): Same as Episode 1.

If you read all of this, thank you so much, seriously. I'm really loving Umineko, and am excited to play through future chapters. If the text got repetitive, or confusing at some point, keep in mind english is not my first language and I'm not used to write long texts in the language. Please do not spoil me in the comments, as I'm completely clear from spoilers.

Once more, thanks for reading, and see you when I finish Episode 3!

I've started playing Umineko and after a little less than a week playing it in my own pace, I've finished Episode 1. So I figured I'd write some of my theories (even though I might have forgotten some details.)

Main Questions:

Who gave Maria the umbrella?
First Twilight (Suspects & How it happened)
Second Twilight (Suspects & How it happened)
Third Twilight (Who slid the letter in the table)
Other Murders (The remaining twilights & Natsuhi's death)

Other Questions:

How did Rudolf know he was going to be murdered?
What does the "Seven Stakes of Purgatory" represent?

Extra Stuff:

Trying to predict what's to come

I will begin by saying that I truly believe magic exists in this world. However, I will try to tackle into the mystery as if it happened solely by human hand, no matter how stretch that may be. I am unsure if the Stakes count as magic or not though, so I will try to propose different solutions for the cases involving them.

Beatrice is not the real culprit behind the crimes, because as the Servants said and Beatrice herself confirms, she has no physical form. She can only truly exist if everyone believes she exists, and as long someone denies her existence, she's not there. For the sake of consistency, I will completely deny her existence and influence to the cases.

I also am under the impression that Umineko have an unreliable narrator, especially when considering other character's POVs. But again, for the sake of consistency, I will use information gathered from those POVs for my theories.

And one last thing I want to say - I didn't take any notes while playing, so I might have forgotten important small details, and for the sake of my own sanity as someone who doesn't read very often (and would rather not reread so early), I will use the suspects table from the Reddit post below, with some minor tweaks as I see fit. There may also be multiple culprits, so I won't clear someone just because they were previously cleared.

The Reddit post in question: https://www.reddit.com/r/umineko/comments/1jt7f1e/finished_ep_1_recently_heres_my_unhinged_theories/

With all that being said, let's jump right into it.

Who gave Maria the umbrella?

Alibis:

Krauss, Eva, Rudolf, Hideyoshi, Kyrie: Parlor
Battler, George, Jessica: Guesthouse
Shannon, Kumasawa: Preparing the rooms

Suspects:

Natsuhi: claims she was resting in her room and did not go outside
Nanjo: claims he went to play chess with Kinzo as soon as the rain started
Kanon: claims he thought Maria was in the guesthouse
Genji: claims it wasn't him but that's it. leaning towards unlikely for the same reason as Gohda

Unlikely Suspects:

Rosa: supposedly asleep the whole time. might be naive, but I see no reason for her to pretend to be Beatrice after beating the shit out of Maria.
Maria: could have faked it, but eh. I doubt it.
Gohda: in the kitchen preparing dinner. I find it difficult to think he could deceive Maria in this context.
Kinzo: in his room, threw the ring out, so couldn't have been the one who wrote the letter. also same reason as Gohda and Genji

My main suspect on the Umbrella case is Kanon. He is the only character we know went out in the rain, even though it was in a hurry, it is unlikely he wouldn't have listened to Maria's wailing. He could have gotten a dress and used a more high-pitched voice for it. Though I must say one of the reasons why I'm inclined to believe this is due to a personal hypothesis of mine that Kanon is a trans man, even though I currently have no evidence to back it up.

As for the reason, it may have been on Kinzo's orders? Or maybe Genji's. For the game to start, people need to start believing. Maria is the only person who believes Beatrice, so she will be the first to fall for it. It takes a spark to start a fire - if a single person starts believing there's a 19th person, the "game" starts, and the seeds of doubt are planted.

However, I do not believe the person impersonating Beatrice here is the same as the culprit behind every murder.

First Twilight (The six sacrifices chosen by the key)

Victims:

Shannon, Krauss: Confirmed bodies. Impossible killers.
Rudolf, Kyrie: Unconfirmed, though unlikely to have been fake bodies.
Gohda, Rosa: Unconfirmed. Possible stand-ins.

Alibis:

Battler, George, Jessica, Maria: Guesthouse
Kanon, Genji: Guesthouse's servant room

Suspects:

Kumasawa: no alibi, stayed on the mansion
Nanjo: no alibi, was in the room where the murders took place
Eva, Hideyoshi: claims to have gone to the guesthouse a little after midnight. no one else confirms it
Kinzo: in his room. could have left to kill the sacrifices himself for Beatrice. leaning heavily towards unlikely though

Unlikely suspects:

Natsuhi: sleeping in her room. could have sneaked out, but the scratches on her door makes her less suspect

Main suspect is Nanjo or Gohda, but all of the suspects are plausible options. Nanjo was in the room, Eva and Hideyoshi could have stayed longer than they claimed (or commited the crimes before the time they left too), and Kumasawa was completely missing throughout this part. However, in the case of Eva and Hideyoshi being culprits, there needs to be a third culprit at play. One thing I noticed is that the actual cause of death was never specified.

In case there's more than one culprit in this murder:

Eva and Hideyoshi were plotting the assassination of the siblings together. They could have poisoned the food, or joined forces in a surprise attack. After that, Eva and Hideyoshi would soon leave the scene of the crime, planning to pin this on Natsuhi somehow
Then, the real murderer would come in. In this case, I'd assume Nanjo. He would kill Shannon and Gohda (the scratches would have been left by Shannon on Natsuhi's door, maybe as a plea for help) and take everyone's bodies to the Storage, destroying their faces and then leaving.

This is just a possibility. You could exchange Nanjo for Kumasawa, but I think that'd be difficult for an old lady to pull off.

In case there's only one culprit in this murder:

Main suspect is Gohda. He cooked dinner, so if anyone could have poisoned the food, it would have been him. He also has a strong physique, so he could take Krauss and Rudolf on after a surprise attack. He knew Shannon was in the mansion, and killed her close to Natsuhi's room, where she would desperately try to run towards in despair.
He's one of the servants, so he would know the key to the Storage, and would be strong enough to take all of the bodies there. As for his own body, an extra body would do the trick.

However, I can't feel satisfied with either. First option seems to complicated and convenient, meanwhile the second brings up the problem "Why would Gohda have an extra body"?

We don't know the culprit's real motives. Besides, the magic circles needs to be drawn by someone who understands the Occult, and the two who knows anything about it is Maria, which cannot be the culprit under any circumstance, and Kinzo, who we know for a fact died right after that.

Kinzo was also acting strange when Natsuhi visited his room, not like himself at all. Maybe Natsuhi is the culprit, and he's praising her because of that? Well, she is a possible culprit for the first twilight, but can't be for the second.

That's why I believe there's more than one murderer. Maybe "Beatrice" is Rosa at the same time Gohda is the murderer? Maybe Nanjo and Kumasawa also acted in some way or another?? Anyways, enough fo that. I won't get anywhere at this rate. Let's procceed.

Second Twilight (Tear apart the two who are close)

Victims:

Hideyoshi, Eva: Confirmed bodies.

Alibis:

Battler, George, Jessica, Maria, Natsuhi: Parlor
Genji, Nanjo

Suspects:

Gohda, Rosa: from this point onwards, they can be suspects for every single murder. it's impossible to know.

Unlikely Suspects:

Kanon, Kumasawa: weren't there when the magic circle was drawn
Genji, Nanjo: weren't there when the magic circle was drawn

Main suspect is Gohda. Eva could be convinced to open the door both due to the shock of meeting a possible survivor, or due to being tricked. After the murderer gets in, it's easy: kill Eva and Hideyoshi, put the chain back, and leave. The Reddit post I linked made me realise that it is indeed possible to put the chain back from the outside, even though it may be tricky to do.

Another possibility is that the murderer hid inside the room and left after everyone stopped investigating too. They never came back to that room and didnt check for hiding places, and it's not like they could notice if anyone slipped out using the master key.

If we use the special properties of the Stakes, then the murderer really sniped them just like Beatrice did in the Tea Party. However I did state I won't take Beatrice's influence nor magic into account.

Fourth Twilight (Kinzo's disappearance; gouge the head and kill)

Battler is right and Kinzo hid and waited for his opportunity to leave. He may have jumped out of the window too. It is very possible that Kinzo was working together with the culprit, as that would help figure out the First Twilight a little bit better (Kinzo may have pretended to be one of the bodies? Or he would have one ready due to occult practices?). But it's too difficult to tell.

Anyways, the Fourth Twilight happened either before or during the Second Twilight. So the suspect list carries over. We have no clues on how this murder happened, just that it had to be in a moment someone was alone. The murderer is one of the servants or one of the dead. We do know that this is 100% Kinzo, so he can't be the culprit to the next murders.

Fifth Twilight (gouge the chest and kill)

Only possible suspects aside from the dead are Kumasawa, Genji and Nanjo, but the attack came from the front, not from behind. I don't think it was a trap, as the door to the courtyard was used by someone. This one is REALLY tricky though, but it makes sense if you start thinking as one of the dead - while everyone is investigating the Second Twilight, use the Fourth Twilight to lure someone to become the Fifth. No one will ever suspect a dead body, so at this point, the culprit is free to do whatever they please.

Sixth, Seventh and Eigth Twilights (stomach, knee, leg)

This one isn't that different from the others. The murder itself happened as you'd expect - the person pretending to be Beatrice would trick Maria, and kill the others. Kumasawa, Nanjo and Genji would be terrified at this point, so they would also fall to Beatrice's trick. Or maybe Beatrice would be threatening with a weapon, forcing them into submission.

The real mystery is how the letter appeared on the table. For this one, Natsuhi is a plausible suspect. She could have been lying, but then that would make everything I wrote irrelevant and I'm too tired to do this right now (been writing for a while and I want to start Ep 2 lol). So for now, I'll be ignorant and put Natsuhi aside.

Ironically, this is the case that makes me 100% sure that the witch isn't the culprit. After all, she couldn't enter the room at all, so it HAS to be someone inside the room. We have two options: it was one of the eight, or someone was hiding. If someone was hiding, then this person would have to leave the room unnoticed, which is an almost impossible task.

This leaves our four main suspects:

Maria - could have put the letter there because "Beatrice" asked her to do it. "Beatrice" would also have told her to lie, so the letter purpose would be fulfilled. shaky tho
Kumasawa, Genji, Nanjo - the three of them could have easily been the one behind this. but whoever it is, would also mean its the murderer's accomplice. Kumasawa is the best stand in for "Beatrice", so it would also align with what Maria said that "Beatrice" did it, but it's also shaky. as for Genji and Nanjo…

there is a possibility of 3 whole culprits. Genji and Nanjo works for Kinzo, and they would want to see Kinzo's life goal fulfilled. however, following this logic, this wouldn't make sense as for why they would let Kinzo die. at least for Genji it wouldn't

Nanjo is my main suspect for this one. he may have actually died here, for his purpose has been fulfilled, but there is the possibility that Hideyoshi's body was used as a stand-in.

so, to summarize: Someone that died is the murderer, acting as Beatrice. They have a spy between the living. I think the range of culprits is between 1-4. I doubt that the murderer is working alone at this point. If they are, I'll be dumbfounded.

Natsuhi's duel with the witch

Natsuhi was shot in the head. She didn't kill herself. Simple. The culprit is the same as the other muderers. Natsuhi's head wound would be way bigger if she shot herself.

SPOILERS FOR EPISODE 2 - My theories and thoughts after finishing Episode 2. (Longpost)

My theories and thoughts after finishing Episode 1