u/holeinmybucketdearja

EDIT: mrbaggins correctly points out that I mistakenly applied the NSW 9/10/29 pay rise months about 11 months too early to NSW 3%. The interactive has been updated here. A new screenshot can be found below.

View the interactive chart here.

In this chart, I've attempted to highlight the difference between how the 2026 VGSA has been 'sold' (Headline salaries) against how it 'feels' (Actual income) for a VIC sixth year teacher. I've then also added in a NSW teacher with six years experience in 2026 for comparison.

The shaded orange shows the salary periods the AEU is focusing on, but the gap between headline and actual income amounts to $26,048.

The effect will be different towards the top of the range. If this is useful, I'll try to model that as well.

You can also see an interactive version of the chart of explore how the 2026 VGSA impacts other bands.

NSW 3% assumes NSW teachers will continue receiving 3% yearly compounding pay rises, but this isn't locked in (a reasonable estimate).

NSW 0% assumes NSW teachers will receive no pay rises between 10/10/26 and 31/12/29 (unlikely).

I made a website today to show how different VIC teaching bands (1.1 - 2.6) are impacted by the in-principle 2026 VGSA.

See Website Here

My goal is to try to illustrate a fair comparison between NSW and VIC teachers, and to do this I have calculated every period, down to the days (even factoring in leap years!) of what teachers will earn over the next four years in VIC, and compared this with both actual and forecasted NSW data.

I hope it is a helpful resource.

A few notes

• We don't know what NSW pay will look like from October 2027, so I have added 3% annually 12 months after the October 2026 increase.
• I haven't included position allowance pay and annual leave loading.
• NSW teachers aren't guaranteed to reach Step 7 in their seventh year of teaching, but my data assumes that they will. If you're teaching part time (eg. 0.5) in NSW, it could take 14 years to climb to the top of the pay scale. VIC teachers only need to work 0.5 FTE to climb the scale, so VIC part time teachers working 0.5-0.8 have quite a good deal compared to NSW.

I put together a data visualisation of what 17%, 28%, and 35% could look like for Victorian teachers.

https://public.flourish.studio/story/3663574/

I'm happy to answer any questions about my thinking and assumptions.

Second edit: It looks like I’m applying top level NSW salaries throughout the hierarchy, however, I think this interpretation arose due to the NSW tables being reversed to match the order of levels in VIC.

Edit: Thanks to mrbaggins*, I have corrected my 'Victorian' understanding of the NSW pay hierarchy. I created my comparisons in part to tease out what happens when you elongate the time it takes for a teacher to climb to the top of the hierarchy. In this sense, my comparisons are somewhat unorthodox, but I think they are still worthwhile because it highlights how much VIC teachers lose by taking so long to get to the top of the pay scale. Charts and sheets have been updated to reflect my current understanding. I'm not too sure how to factor in the VIC benefit of not needing 203 days to progress up the scale, but it's on the cards. At the moment VIC teachers seem to only need 104 days (6 months) to progress - lucky us.*