u/howtoretireby40

"Pinnacle’s latest proposal calls for 210 homes. That includes 50 carriage homes, 87 small-lot single-family houses and 73 large-lot single-family houses. Small lots will run about 7,700 square feet. Large lots will measure roughly 14,000 square feet.

Prices are expected to start in the mid-$800,000s for carriage homes. Small-lot homes will start in the mid-$900,000s. Large-lot homes will start around $1.5 million."

Kinda crazy that 0.33 acres or 14,000 sq. ft is not only considered a "large lot" but is estimated to START AT $1.5M. I hope that includes some serious builder incentives to go along with it (e.g., interest rate buydowns or free builder upgrades).

Did a bit of digging last night and wanted to share as it helped ground my valuation thesis of Reddit a bit better.

Meta has 28.1x Reddit’s DAUq and of those DAUqs is able to extract 3x the APRU which roughly aligns with their 84x revenue multiple of Reddit too.

It gets worse. Of that 84x revenue multiple of Reddit, Meta is able to also extract 1.5x the GAAP operating margin as Reddit which gives them 130x Reddit’s GAAP net income. Yes, Meta has a significantly higher net income margin even with all their capex spend.

Final comparison is that while Meta makes 130x Reddit’s income, their market cap is only about 50x Reddit’s meaning the market’s expecting Reddit to grow about 160% faster than Meta in the future.

Meta’s truly a beast in online ad spend, sheesh. Will def be watching their earning report closely tonight.

Not investing advice.

I admit my portfolio is way too concentrated into RDDT at the moment (2200 shares or almost $500k cost basis) but I can't bring myself to sell until I feel like it's closer to its expected 12-month peak. So what I've done is written down the 4 major catalysts I want to see concluded before I give myself permission to sell.

1. Google and OpenAI Renewal (ETA 4Q26): I think it's pretty widely known that these AI license agreements are set to expire by end of 2026 so a lot of eyes are waiting on renewal news before EOY. I'm very confident that the new data deals will get done in under much more Reddit-friendly terms than the current agreement including citation-based compensation and record-breaking valuation given Reddit's well-documented domination of top 10 citations by major LLMs. FYI, I fully support Spez if he says walking away from Google is the right move long term for Reddit, he has all the data and is in the best position to make the call, not us outsiders.
2. S&P 500 Inclusion (ETA 4Q26 if not 3Q26): The sub-industry that Reddit would go under ("Interactive Media & Services") is TINY and is in desperate need for more diversity. It's literally only Alphabet, Meta, and then Match--2 giants and a random $7B dwarf. Snap, Pinterest, Yelp, etc. all don't meet the requirements so Reddit finally being able to be added to this duopoly of a key sub-industry of the S&P500 should be a no-brainer. I'm calling addition by EOY.
3. Addition of another major AI data license deal (ETA 4Q26): Microsoft and Amazon both already have an AI license deal with Wikipedia and have demonstrated their openness to paying for AI data licenses from other companies. I think it's only a matter of time until they add Reddit too. Meta and X I'm doubtful on, at least in the next 12 months but still hopeful they will one day.
4. Finally, settlement on Reddit vs. Anthropic lawsuit (ETA 4Q27): This is the only major catalyst that I expect will be much later than end of this year. Reddit's language in recent filings show they are fully confident AND prepared for a lengthy court battle and rightfully so. From my layman perspective, they have Anthropic dead-to-rights with the formal cease-and-desist as well as public comments by their CEO saying they don't and won't scrape Reddit which was verifiable false. Lying in public, ignoring a legal cease-and-desist, and then complaining that Chinese LLMs are scraping your Claude LLM against your TOS just like you're doing against Reddit's TOS? Dude, they don't have a leg to stand on and they will end up paying, just not anytime soon probably.

With 3 of the 4 catalysts above due by EOY, I'm hoping we can all be celebrating at least $250/sh by then! Lemme know if you think I missed any other key catalysts.

Not investment advice.

https://preview.redd.it/c4vx5nglvk4h1.png?width=1308&format=png&auto=webp&s=69a0126c97dab5015e21589f983b3e3f2814ff6a

https://robinhood.com/stocks/RDDT?source=lists_section_watchlist