The Cap Space Timeline
All offseason, all twelve of us have been pondering the same question: why didn’t the Pelicans do anything? For a team that won 26 games last year to run it back with virtually the same roster begs the question of what ownership and management are thinking. The internet consensus is that they’re just stupid and/or delusional, allowing Mrs. Benson (to the extent that she’s paying attention at all), Joe Dumars, and Troy Weaver to somehow squint at this roster and see a good team. Dumars alluded to this in his interview on August 7^(th), when he stated “We have really good talent on our team and if we can stay healthy, we have a competitive team,” which is both the kind of thing general managers have to say and also just not supported by evidence. To be fair to Joe, if you don’t mind squinting too hard you may be able to do this too, you just have to assume a lot of things happen at once: Zion gets a middie, Trey improves on D, Herb shoots better from the corners, Poole realizes he has teammates, Mosley gets everyone to play harder, and we see normal progression out of Fears, Queen, and Missi. Oh yeah and everyone stays healthy, despite the fact that getting injured is the only thing this team has been able to do consistently since at least the AD era.
There is a second explanation, which is that the franchise is paralyzed with indecision. Unable to choose between trying to compete now or entering a full tanky rebuild, they're doing the roster-building equivalent of talking on two phones at once. Whether you call it “operating under a two-timelines approach” (if you’re a Jake Madison fan) or “being directionless” (if you prefer Zach Lowe) the concept here is that the Pels stood pat this offseason because they couldn’t decide which path to take. In this theory, the big fulcrum is whether the trade market for Trey would produce a Godfather offer and force the team’s hand, initiating a teardown followed by a rebuild centered around Fears, Queen, and future picks. In this timeline Herb and Z would likely also be moved, possibly bringing back bad salary along with more picks. The evidence here is that the team has never definitively shut down the possibility of trading Trey, they just let it be known around the league that his price would be high.
But I think there’s a third explanation that hasn’t gotten enough coverage. Imagine this scenario: in 2026-2027 the Pels make some improvements under Mosley but they don’t make the postseason. Zion misses 42 games with a litany of issues, making the last year of his contract unguaranteed, and the team cuts him. Murray plays well enough to show that he can still be a starting PG, and seeking longer-term security and not wanting to split minutes with Fears, he turns down his player option for his final year. Poole and Hawkins stink and their contracts expire. The net effect of this would be the Pels entering 2027-2028 with only ~$79M in salary for 8 players, meaning they would have an unprecedented ~$90M in cap space after accounting for four cap holds, enough to add two max free agents.
Now before you come at me with the “New Orleans is not a FA destination, nobody has come here in FA since JJ Redick,” I know. I’m not imagining signing any free agents outright, I’m thinking about sign and trades, and we have basically all of our future picks to help make them happen. And in the offseason of 2027 the pressures of the second-apron era combined with an unusually crowded free agent class could mean multiple high-level players change teams. Here are just a few of the players who are potential free agents next summer (obviously a lot of these guys are going to re-sign with their current teams but this whole post is for entertainment purposes anyway so let’s entertain ourselves): Giannis, Steph, Jokic, LeBron, Jimmy Butler, AD, Kawhi, KAT, KD, BI, Kyrie, RJ Barrett, Miles Bridges, both Thompson twins, Lu Dort, Keyonte and Paul George, Gobert, Jalen Green, Herro, Jrue, Zach LaVine, Dame, Brandon Miller, MPJ, Julius Randle, Fred VanVleet, Anthony Black, CJ, Pods, Porzingis, Cason Wallace, Jerami Grant, Rui, Hart, Kris Dunn, De’Andre Hunter, Cam Johnson, and the list goes on. It’s worth noting that more teams are expected to have cap room next summer too, but that list will shrink as some of these players sign extensions, and with so many players looking for new deals the ability to play in that market isn’t something to just throw away.
Even if we assume that we re-sign Bey for 4 years, $80M and give Karlo 3 years and $15M, we still have $70M in space. That could be enough to add MPJ and Herro, or Brandon Miller, Pods, and Maxime Raynaud, or any other combination you can dream up (again, these would be trades or sign and trades with significant picks going out, not straight FA adds). And unlike in the full rebuild scenario, we’d still have a “core four” of Fears, Queen, Herb, and Trey (we also have an outside chance at two top-four draft picks, though one good pick is much more likely).
But this timeline all hinges on Zion’s health and how many games he plays this year. That’s why I see this as the third explanation for inaction: with his unusual, partially guaranteed deal and unpredictable health status the team couldn’t add players without knowing whether they could be giving up a rare chance to be major players in next year’s buyer’s market of potential free agents. So they’re left watching and waiting, but if Z starts off the year with a string of missed games, maintaining the ability to pivot by either cutting him loose or using that leverage to negotiate a team-friendly extension could be something worth waiting for.
TLDR: if Zion misses time and Murray plays well the Pels could have beaucoup cap space in 2027 and lots of picks for sign and trades. Keeping that flexibility could be another reason why we didn’t add any new players this offseason.