
I spent 6 months coding every ICT concept I could find and backtesting it. About half of it doesn't survive. I built an indicator out of the half that does
Like a lot of people here I went down the ICT/smart-money rabbit hole — sweeps, CISDs, FVGs, breakers, the lot. The problem was never finding concepts. The problem was that nobody could tell me which ones actually hold up, because almost nobody tests them. So I did, with a simple rule: if I couldn't write it as code, I didn't get to believe in it.
Scale of the testing, so you know this isn't three screenshots and a feeling: 830k+ liquidity-sweep confirmations, 390k+ reversal events, 1.6M+ continuation events, across 14 markets (crypto, indices, FX, metals) and 5+ years of data, fees included.
Some of what died:
- Waiting for the retest. Winners retest shallow or not at all; losers retest deep. On 8,000+ confirmations, the pullback everyone waits for was usually the market telling you the trade already failed.
- "Smart" trade management. Breakeven at +1R, trailing behind structure, cutting on a close through the level — every variant gave edge back versus a fixed target on the same trades. All of them.
- First-touch POI magic, most stop-buffer rules, sweep-count rules. Felt great on hindsight charts. Zero edge in the data.
Some of what survived:
- The sweep-and-reclaim itself. C1 range → raid → close back inside → close through the level that delivered the raid. Real and measurable.
- Higher-timeframe context. The same trigger that's noise on its own timeframe becomes signal inside a daily/weekly parent. Shows up in the numbers every time.
- Speed of confirmation. Winning reversals get their lower-timeframe confirmation within the hour. Slow confirmation is a dead trade. Surprised me the most.
- The continuation shift inside fresh context. Standalone it loses over 1.6M events. Inside a just-confirmed reversal it was the strongest entry we measured.
Full disclosure: I turned this into a TradingView indicator (the Distilled Model) because I got tired of drawing it manually, and yes, it's a paid tool — that's the marketing part of this post and I won't pretend otherwise. It draws only what survived: the sweeps, confirmation levels, stage labels so you know if you're early or late, reversal/continuation shifts, and a liquidity map for targets. Nothing repaints.
But honestly, even if you never touch the indicator, take the two free findings: stop waiting for deep retests, and stop managing your winners into breakeven scratches. Those two came out of the data over and over, on every market we tested.
Happy to post the backtest breakdowns for any specific claim in the comments — genuinely enjoy being challenged on this stuff.
https://www.tradingview.com/script/i8UN0L3B-The-Distilled-C2-Indicator/