u/jbrown_11

The playoff bracket is taking shape with a month till decision day. If the table holds as is the second seeded Revs would play seventh seeded Orlando. Not a bad match up. Of course there are seven matches left and the Revs are even with #3 Inter Miami on points in the East.

The only non-playoff team (if the playoffs were today) the Revs will play in the next seven games is Cincinnati on Oct 14. But that is an away game and Cincinnati is not a bad team standing just on the outside of the playoffs at 10th in the East. The Revs have the 3rd most difficult remaining schedule. On the flip side Inter Miami has a relatively easy schedule ranked 28th out of 30 teams:

• Revs (3rd most difficult remaining schedule)
  • Oct 10 v Seattle — 7th in West
  • Oct 14 @ Cincinnati — 10th in East
  • Oct 17 v Chicago — 5th in East
  • Oct 24 @ Philadelphia — 6th in East
  • Oct 28 v NY Red Bulls — 8th in East
  • Nov 2 v Inter Miami — 3rd in East
  • Nov 7 @ Orlando — 7th in East
• Inter Miami (28th most difficult remaining schedule)
  • Oct 10 v D.C. United — 11th in East
  • Oct 14 v NYCFC — 9th in East
  • Oct 17 @ Atlanta — 14th in East
  • Oct 24 @ NY Red Bulls — 8th in East
  • Oct 28 v Cincinnati — 10th in East
  • Nov 2 @ New England — 2nd in East
  • Nov 7 v Charlotte — 4th in East

If the Revs finish second in the East their likely opponent in the first round is Orlando or Cincinnati.* If the Revs finish third their most likely opponent will be Charlotte or Philadelphia. It is debatable who we would prefer to play. But the Revs should be favored in any of these draws, except for Philly which would be a toss up**. What matters more is the conference semifinal where the Revs are most likely to face Inter Miami. If the Revs can keep the second seed that will be a home match which puts them in a better position to beat Inter Miami and make a deep run.

Really looking forward to watching the Revs in the home stretch, especially that Nov 2 game vs Inter Miami!

*Based on my MLS forecasting model (tested against past seasons it wasn't trained on), which has Cincinnati climbing into 7th in a meaningful share of simulations.
** Based on my MLS forecasting model (tested against past seasons it wasn't trained on), which views Philly in its current form as a dangerous team

The Galaxy loss was frustrating with the Revs outplaying the Galaxy in several key stats:

• Revs 24 shots vs 7 for LA
• Revs 7 shots on goal vs 3 for LA
• Revs xG 2.28 vs 1.38 for LA
• Removing penalties; about 0.8 xG) Revs xG 1.5 vs .6 for LA

I couldn't help but recall the reactions to the Wynder signing of.... why not a striker?!?!

Of course, one match doesn't paint much of a picture. Looking at the season, the Revs are 18th in the MLS in xG over the season (as of Columbus game) with 34.22 xG. You would think last night was more of the same - but it was the reverse.

While the Revs are 18th in total xG (which is correlated to volume of shots) they are 8th in xG per shot on the season at .13 with San Jose leading the league at .15 xG per shot. Last night the Revs averaged 0.065 xG per non penalty shot. So it was a case of volume without quality. The season average of .13 xG is respectable and the general problem was quality without volume (Revs are 17th in shots taken).

It was good to see the volume of shots last night. But quality is important. Last night Miller had 5 shots and Harrison 4 - they are not true strikers who can threaten from the middle. Turgeman did have 5 but with zero big changes. And that is where the quality problem comes in for the Revs, they are 21st in offensive actions from the center.

Def happy to see the Harrison and Gazdag signings. They should contribute to more shots for the Revs - both are creators. But the team will need to ensure there is quality behind those shots moving forward.

Note - I did not link sources as I have gotten a post removed in a different sub for linking out. Happy to provide sources as needed (there are several I used).

So.. I am a new convert to the Revs. Have loved World Cup football for a while, never truly adopted a European club team, and to fix my withdraw after the Scotts left Boston, decided to begin following the Revs. Mainly to get on the bandwagon for the new stadium... fingers crossed!!!

Def enjoying it so far.

I am in Somerville, curious if folks inn the Cambridgeville area ever meet up to watch matches at Parlor/Magoons/ect??