What if we said Luna Rossa wasn’t faster, and NZ didn’t really lose because of the late start?
We took the data from the match race of the America’s Cup Preliminary Regatta in Naples.
Let's say that the late start wasn’t a BIG issue. The start line is lifted a bit, so even 2 seconds late would have been okay, but not 5.. So, we simulated what would have happened if NZ hadn’t been late on the start by adding those 5 seconds of difference.
Conclusion: It was all decided in the prestart. That’s what gave Luna Rossa the advantage on the first leg, and then the whole race.
You can also see the tracks from the ghost predictor. Each ghost starts from the boat’s real position, speed and heading at the fork and sails the rest of the course through the AC40 polar fitted from this race’s steady sailing, scaled to that boat’s own straight-line speed. And of course, it sails in the recorded wind field (mark sensors, interpolated along the course). The solid tick is that run, and the band spreads 16 alternative wind futures with similar shifts.
*This reproduction was made by the kTool analytics team using a prediction tool that considers real-life factors such as wind cover, but it may still differ from reality.