"How do you anticipate Google's announced changes to search today affecting Reddit?"
In my opinion, Google’s AI search changes will structurally reduce direct non-branded traffic to Reddit from Google, even if Reddit appears more frequently in AI Overviews/AI mode.
But that doesn't mean it's the end of the world.
Kevin Indig’s recent AI Mode study found 64% of users of AI chat never clicked out to external sites, while 74% accepted AI-generated shortlists without additional research (1).
This is for purchase-intent searches, so we can assume that for informational content, the clicks are likely significantly less, i.e. "zero click searches".
At the same time, AI traffic is still tiny overall, studies show that LLMs drive only less than 0.5% of total web traffic ~ one study from Ahrefs showing as little as 0.28% (3).
But those visitors convert at much higher rates ~ up to 23 times better. That makes sense as the intent for AI searches is more specific and answers are more personalized (3).
So clicks from AI searches are more valuable. This total traffic share will increase, Reddit will benefit from being part of the clicks due to being increasingly shown in AI overviews.
Here you can see the rapid rise of Reddit showing in AI Overviews, which IMO will continue to rapidly increase.
However, total non branded traffic from Google search as a broad metric may slow or possibly decline. It depends on how aggressive future rollouts are with Google (how quickly AI mode, etc. becomes a default option).
Potential indication of that in this graph here of organic traffic from Google to Reddit. Of course, this might not continue to drop, nor can we confirm with certainty it's 100% accurate.
Also, it's good to see top positions in traditional search continue to increase. Reddit is winning high-intent, high-visibility clicks from Google. So this is great.
So the more important KPI may not be referral clicks, but whether AI visibility increases Reddit brand searches, direct visits, and long-term user growth, indirectly rather than directly from Google. This is my perspective and why I'm still very bullish.
To me, growth in branded search demand for “Reddit” is especially important because it reflects rising mindshare, even if click attribution directly from Google becomes weaker.
However this can be strongly misinterpreted by analysts, etc., who just see "Google traffic down, Reddit depends on Google traffic, therefore Reddit is down". That said, this might be priced in already. Nobody can say for sure. And this depends on how aggressive Google roles out AI mode, and when (not if) it becomes the default way to search.
Reddit is already fighting back with Reddit Answers ~ which is powered by Gemini (4). It's a smart defensive move, so that should help somewhat.
Yes, Google also benefits enormously from Reddit. The spike in Reddit traffic over the last few years is because Reddit fulfills search intent better than generic blogs or news sites.
That said, the question isn’t whether Google benefits from Reddit - they do. The question is whether they will benefit at the detriment of Reddit. The same goes for Anthropic, OpenAI, etc.
That’s why I don’t want to see Reddit enter a billion-dollar licensing deal with Google, etc. where perhaps the terms aren't mutually beneficial (Like u/spez said (in some interview, I forgot which). Money's not the only thing that matters.
So in summary, I think it becomes a race between Google siphoning clicks away through AI-generated answer aggregation versus Reddit’s ability to convert more infrequent users into DAUs and continue growing branded search demand for “Reddit.”.
This comes down to user experience, interface, and conversion optimization. Basically, just product improvement and making Reddit an app people want to use daily.
If they can outpace this "inevitable" decline, then Reddit's future is looking bright.
So yeah, maybe there will be short-term or intermediate-term turbulence because of this. Maybe there won't be. But as Spez said, there will always be a deep human desire to talk to other humans. And I think Reddit fulfils that better than anything, especially today and in the future.
In summary, I'm looking for a continued increase in Reddit brand search demand, user growth, and conversion of MAU -> WAU -> DAU. In some ways I think it's good for Reddit's dependence to lessen on Google and I see it as a healthy transition. Not that the bulk of it is going to magically dissapear anytime soon.
